After Bingu wa Mutharika’s death from a heart-attack on 5 April 2012, Joyce Banda’s appointment to the Malawian presidency came as a shock to many with some seeking to prevent it. Banda is Malawi’s first female president, and only the second in Africa after Liberia’s Ellen Johnson Sirleaf.⁽²⁾ Despite this accolade, President Banda is not an uncontroversial politician. In late 2010, she was expelled from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) after criticising then-President Mutharika’s appointment of his brother, Peter, as his heir apparent. She did, however, remain in her position as vice-president, and thus retained the constitutional right to take over if the president became incapable of carrying out his duties, or died.

A number of Mutharika loyalists did attempt to block Banda’s ascent on the dubious ground that she was no longer a member of the ruling party. Among them was Mutharika's unpopular information minister, Patricia Kaliati.⁽³⁾ An alleged coup plot planned to install the late president’s brother as successor failed.⁽⁴⁾

This CAI discussion paper examines President Joyce Banda’s brief presidential term so far. Central to this discussion is the period since 2004, and Malawi’s fall from African development success story, to economic disaster. Finally, it looks at the key challenges facing the new president in the time ahead.

Malawi’s economic boom and its dramatic end

In 2004, Malawi’s economy experienced an average growth of 7%.⁽⁵⁾ Through Government subsidies for agricultural fertilisers, Malawi had turned its previous food deficit into a surplus.⁽⁶⁾ Child mortality, once among the world’s highest, was halved, and the HIV/AIDS pandemic was brought relatively under control.⁽⁷⁾ As a result, Malawi was, in 2004, deemed one of only four countries in sub-Saharan Africa likely to meet most of the United Nations' (UN) Millennium Development Goals.⁽⁸⁾The positive development increased the popularity of the former president, who was awarded a landslide re-election in 2009 with a two-thirds majority. The positive trend did not continue, however, and Mutharika’s success was soon overshadowed by the President’s turbulent personal and political life. As the once admired president increasingly displayed a dictatorial streak - postponing local Government elections, enacting several unconstitutional laws restricting civil liberties, and intimidating his opponents - whispers began about an unstable personal life involving everything from a difficult marriage to battles with cancer, diabetes, or even dementia.⁽⁹⁾

The national economic decline which accompanied Mutharika’s second term in office has, since 2011, fuelled numerous protests, some which have led to violent and deadly clashes. From 20 to 21 July 2011, security forces used live ammunition to disperse thousands of anti-Government protestors, leaving more than 18 dead.⁽¹⁰⁾ Although Mutharika initially responded with calls for calm and peaceful dialogue, attention soon turned towards opposition leaders whom he accused of treason.⁽¹¹⁾ This was followed by the introduction of repressive legislation including that related to policing powers, media restrictions, and restrictions on legal remedies, with some journalists accused of fomenting dissent reportedly beaten by police.⁽¹²⁾ In total, more than 250 appeared in courts charged with violence.⁽¹³⁾ The pressure on the president heightened after UN talks between Government and protest organisers in September 2011 did not produce results.⁽¹⁴⁾ In February 2012, former Attorney General, Ralph Kasambara, openly called for Mutharika’s resignation.⁽¹⁵⁾ Kasambara was jailed shortly thereafter accused of kidnapping, torture and corruption.⁽¹⁶⁾

Mutharika’s “ever more autocratic and intolerant”⁽¹⁷⁾ behaviour saw him gain an increasing array of detractors, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and foreign donors, who accounted for about 20% of gross domestic product (GDP) and 40% of the budget in 2011.⁽¹⁸⁾ Following the expulsion of the British ambassador, the United Kingdom (Malawi’s largest donor by far), in April 2011, decided to suspend bilateral budget support.⁽¹⁹⁾ Western donors, who used to give Malawi around US$ 800 million a year in aid, also suspended all budgetary support ⁽²⁰⁾ in protest of growing human rights abuses and the Government's failure to adhere to the IMF's good-governance conditions.⁽²¹⁾ Following this, the IMF in June 2011 froze further disbursements of a promised US$ 79 million loan.⁽²²⁾ Adding to the problem, tobacco, Malawi’s largest export product, has suffered a slump in prices.⁽²³⁾ Losing its second largest source of foreign currency after aid, Malawi’s economy has since suffered a foreign currency crisis as well as shortages of fuel, imported food and spares parts.

New president, new hope

Since she was sworn in on 7 April 2012, President Banda has already begun to work to restore the rule of law and a respect for human rights. She has already proved herself capable of making tough decisions. One of her first official actions was to order the sacking of unpopular relics from the former president’s camp, whom President Banda holds responsible for unleashing a reign of terror against Mutharika’s critics, which included arson attacks on their homes, death threats, physical assaults and summary arrests on trumped-up charges.⁽²⁴⁾ The dismissals include 10 senior ministers, including Peter Mutharika and six others reportedly involved in conspiracy.⁽²⁵⁾ Banda also fired her predecessor's chief of police, Peter Mukhito, who has been held responsible for the June 2011 killing of 19 protestors during anti-Government demonstrations. The President has also ordered an official inquiry into the suspicious suicide of a student pro-democracy activist.⁽²⁶⁾ At the same time, Banda has emphasised the need for reconciliation, and on 27 April 2012, announced a new ‘reconciliation’ cabinet which includes representatives of all the main opposition parties as well as members of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.⁽²⁷⁾

Banda may have started off well but she will face substantial challenges in her impoverished southern African country of 16 million inhabitants.⁽²⁸⁾ Malawi remains one of the world’s poorest countries, ranking 171st out of 187 countries on the Human Development Index (2011 figures).⁽²⁹⁾ According to data from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), 45% of the country’s children under the age of five experience stunted development due to a lack of adequate nutrition.⁽³⁰⁾ According to the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) Human Development Report for 2009,⁽³¹⁾ about 74% of the population still lives below the income poverty line of US$ 1.25 a day and 90% below the US$ 2 a day threshold. Secondary and higher education is largely confined to wealthy households, mainly due to the required enrolment fees. However, almost 30% of poor children do not even start primary school, which is free in Malawi, thus blocking a major driver of relative wealth.

Agriculture is central to Malawi’s economy and contributes about 38% to GDP, constitues 80% of export earnings and employs about 80% of the overall workforce.⁽³²⁾ However, land distribution is unequal, and in addition to producing low yields, crops are highly vulnerable to frequent droughts and crop failures.⁽³³⁾ Moreover, the sector is largely comprised of smallholders and estates with more than 90% of the rural population (2.5-3 million households) being smallholder farmers with customary land tenure.⁽³⁴⁾ The vulnerability of the agricultural sector has largely prevented most farmers from accessing new technologies and fertilizers. Consequently, productivity of most farmlands has not improved since the 1970s.⁽³⁵⁾

On top of this, Malawi’s barriers to investment include unreliable power supply, water shortages, poor telecommunications infrastructure, and the high cost of services.⁽³⁶⁾ Illness or injury is also very common, as are shocks associated with death of family members, heightened by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, which affects 11.9% of the population.⁽³⁷⁾ This inherent vulnerability to shocks often forces households to adopt costly coping strategies such as selling assets, withdrawing children from school and, reducing food consumption in times of crisis.⁽³⁸⁾ The list of highly unfavourable conditions could easily be expanded, and there is little doubt that Malawi’s president is therefore facing a substantially challenging task which will require targeted programmes and investments in the years and decades to come.

Conclusion

Being a relatively small, landlocked country in Southern Africa, restricting access to international markets, Malawi does not benefit from any substantial comparative advantages which could spark economic development. Furthermore, as Malawi’s exports are almost solely based on tobacco, tea, sugar, coffee and cotton, the country is struggling with a small and undiversified economy.⁽³⁹⁾ Having missed out on the green revolution in agriculture, modernising and improving agricultural input is likely to be important in the short term. Enhancing exports will reduce Malawi’s dependency on aid and give the country access to international markets.

President Banda’s recent decision to resume talks with the IMF over a new loan as well as an agreement to resume full diplomatic relations with Britain can be perceived as a positive step forward, which Malawi’s investors do seem to appreciate. The African Development Bank has already pledged US$ 45 million in budget support, while Zambia and South Africa have donated fuel.⁽⁴⁰⁾ However, despite the President’s success in attracting international investment, funds are considered unlikely to arrive until the end of 2012.⁽⁴¹⁾

In the meantime, the president will have to continue her focus on restoring respect for the rule of law and human rights, strengthening Government accountability and improving citizens’ opportunities. Despite the myriad of challenges she faces, President Banda’s positive start might, however, prove to be the new beginning for which Malawi has been searching.

Written by Anders Brudevoll ⁽¹⁾

NOTES:

(1) Contact Anders Brudevoll through Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Africa Watch Unit (africawatch@consultancyafrica.com).
(2) ‘Rejoice, it’s Joyce’, The Economist, 5 March 2012, http://www.economist.com.
(3) Ibid.
(4) Smith, D., ‘Malawi's Joyce Banda puts women's rights at centre of new presidency’, The Guardian, 29 April 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk.
(5) ‘The woman for the job’, The Economist, 11 April 2012, http://www.economist.com.
(6) Ibid.
(7) Ibid.
(8) Ibid.
(9) ‘Rejoice, it’s Joyce’, The Economist, 5 March 2012, http://www.economist.com.
(10) ‘Malawi's bloody crackdown’, Mail & Guardian, 25 July 2011, http://mg.co.za.
(11) Ibid.
(12) ‘Malawi leader once heralded abroad now condemned’, The Guardian, 3 August 2011, http://www.guardian.co.uk.
(13) Trntham, R., ‘Hundreds of Malawian’s charged over anti-Mutharika riots’, Mail and Guardian, 26 July 2012, http://mg.co.za.
(14) Ibid.
(15) Smith, D., ‘Malawi's Joyce Banda puts women's rights at centre of new presidency’, The Guardian, 29 April 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk.
(16) Ibid.
(17) Ibid.
(18) ’Rejoice, it’s Joyce’, The Economist, 5 March 2012, http://www.economist.com.
(19) Ibid.
(20) ‘The woman for the job’, The Economist, 11 April 2012, http://www.economist.com.
(21) Ibid.
(22) Ibid.
(23) Ibid.
(24) Ibid.
(25) Smith, D., ‘Malawi's Joyce Banda puts women's rights at centre of new presidency’, The Guardian, 29 April 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk.
(26) ’Rejoice, it’s Joyce’, The Economist, 5 March 2012, http://www.economist.com.
(27) Ibid.
(28) ‘The woman for the job’, The Economist, 11 April 2012, http://www.economist.com.
(29) ‘Malawi Country profile: Human development indicators’, United Nations Development Programme, http://hdrstats.undp.org.
(30) ‘Poverty’, Raising Malawi, May 2012, http://www.raisingmalawi.org.
(31) Ibid.
(32) ’Malawi, fertilizer subsidies and the World Bank’, The World Bank, http://go.worldbank.org.
(33) Ibid.
(34) Ibid.
(35) Ibid.
(36) ‘Malawi’, Central Intelligence Agency, https://www.cia.gov.
(37) ‘Rural poverty in Malawi’, Rural Poverty Portal, http://www.ruralpovertyportal.org.
(38) Ibid.
(39) ‘Malawi Economic Brief’, The Scottish Government, May 2005, http://www.scotland.gov.uk.
(40) ’Rejoice, it’s Joyce’, The Economist, 5 March 2012, http://www.economist.com.
(41) Ibid.