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Facts or alternative facts? Zuma’s 10th State of the Nation Address checked

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Facts or alternative facts? Zuma’s 10th State of the Nation Address checked

13th February 2017

By: Africa Check

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Amidst unprecedented security measures, South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma delivered his tenth State of the Nation Address on 9 February 2017. We fact-checked his speech.

Energy

Claim: “To date, nearly 7 million households have been connected to the grid and now have the electricity.”

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Verdict: correct

South Africa’s development indicators showed that 6,340,321 households had been connected to the grid as of 2013/14. A further 233,455 were connected in 2014/15 and 231,012 were connected in 2015/16. Figures for 2016/17 have yet to be released.

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Zuma’s claim is correct based on these figures. They show that a total of 6,804,788 households – nearly 7 million – were connected as of 31 March 2016.

As of 2016, 90,3% of South African households had access to electricity for lighting. – Kate Wilkinson

Education

Claim: Among the participating countries [in the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study] South Africa has shown the largest improvement of 87 points in mathematics and 90 points in science.

Verdict: correct

The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) is conducted every 4 years and provides participating countries with the means to compare pupil performance in maths and science.  

Grade 4 and Grade 8 pupils are tested in most of the countries that take part in the study. However, in South Africa Grade 5 and 9 pupils are tested.

The 2015 study found that South Africa’s Grade 9 pupils recorded the “biggest positive change”. There was an improvement of 90 points in science and 87 points in mathematics.

The report goes on to note that “South Africa started with very low performance scores in 2003 and this upward shift translates to an overall performance improvement by approximately two grade levels between 2003 and 2015”.

While South African Grade 9 pupils did record a large improvement, in comparison to other countries they fared badly. Out of the 39 countries assessed, South Africa’s Grade 9 students placed 38th for mathematics performance and 39th for science performance. – Kate Wilkinson

Employment

Claim: “In terms of the 2015 to 2016 information submitted to the Employment Equity Commission, the representation of whites at top management levels amounted to 72%, while African representation was at 10%. The representation of coloureds stood at 4.5%, and Indians 8.7%.”

Verdict: incorrect

The commission for employment equity compiles an annual report on employment equity for the department of labour.

The data in the report is submitted once a year by designated employers, which include employers who employ 50 or more employees, employers who employ fewer than 50 employees but have a certain annual turnover, as well as municipalities, all levels of government, state-owned companies and educational institutions.

The 2015/16 annual report showed that 68.9% of top management workforce was white, 14.3% was black, 8.6% was Indian, 4.7% was coloured and 3.5% was foreign.

The breakdown of management levels by population group:

  Top management Senior management Professionally qualified Skilled technical
Black 14.3% 21.2% 41.2% 58.8%
White 68.9% 58.1% 38.0% 22.0%
Indian 8.6% 10.2% 8.5% 5.9%
Coloured 4.7% 7.4% 9.4% 11.6%
Foreign 3.5% 3.1% 2.8% 1.7%

– Kate Wilkinson

 

Claim: “The expanded public works program has since 2014 created more than 2 million work opportunities towards the attainment of the target of 6 million work opportunities by the end of March 2019.”

Verdict: correct

Data from the expanded public works programme supports Zuma’s claim. Nearly 2.5 million job opportunities were created between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2016.

  Total work opportunities
1 April 2016 – 31 December 2016    497,624
1 April 2015 – 31 March 2016    741,540
1 April 2014 – 31 March 2015    1,103,983
1 January 2014 – 31 March 2014    154,965
Total    2,498,112

Work opportunities are not permanent jobs, however, and in most cases only last a few months.

The department of public works notes that “the same individual can be employed on different projects and each period of employment will be counted as a work opportunity”. So while nearly 2.5 million work opportunities were created, this does not mean that the same number of people benefited from the programme. – Kate Wilkinson

Claim: “Of the [more than 2 million] work opportunities created, more than 1 million have been taken up by the youth.”

Verdict: correct

This claim followed on from Zuma’s previous statement, in which he said that “the expanded public works programme has since 2014 created more than 2 million work opportunities”.

Africa Check was unable to find fourth quarter figures for 2013/14. However, even without them, the expanded public works programme reports show that 1,129,516 job opportunities were filled by young people. This was 45% of all work opportunities over the period. – Kate Wilkinson

  Total work opportunities for youth
1 April 2016 – 31 December 2016      222,587
1 April 2015 – 31 March 2016      340,663
1 April 2014 – 31 March 2015      566,265
1 January 2014 – 31 March 2014       –
Total      1,129,516

Income

Claim: “White households earn at least 5 times more than black households, according to Statistics South Africa.”

Verdict: mostly-correct

Statistics South Africa’s 2014/15 Living Conditions of Households Survey reported that black African households had an average income of R92,983 per year. In comparison, white households had an average income R444,446 per year.

Based on these figures, white households’ income is on average 4.8 times more than black households. – Kate Wilkinson

Population Group Average annual household income
Black R92,983
Coloured R172,765
Indian/Asian R271,621
White R444,446
National average R138,168

Water

Claim: “…about 10,000 unemployed youth are being trained as plumbers, artisans and water agents”

Verdict: unproven

In his 2015 State of the Nation Address, Zuma announced that 15,000 artisans, plumbers and water agents would be trained as part of the War on Leaks initiative.

The department’s 2015/2016 annual report noted that 3,000 artisans started training last year, while an additional 7,000 trainees were to join their ranks in August.

The department’s spokesman, Sputnik Ratau, was unable to confirm to Africa Check how many young people started training in August 2016. (Note: We will update this report when Ratau supplies the figures for the second intake.)

However, he said the programme is still on-going and that a third intake of trainees would take place this year. – Gopolang Makou & Katleho Sekhotho

Housing

Claim: “Government is actively involved in the property sector, having provided more than 4 million houses since 1994.”

Verdict: incorrect

Data from the department of human settlements shows that 2,835,275 houses were built by government between 1994/95 and 2013/14. A further 95,210 were built in 2014/15 and 100,339 were built in 2015/16. This brings the total number of houses delivered to 3,030,824 – around a million less than Zuma claimed.

It is possible that Zuma was referring to the delivery of both houses and serviced sites. This, however, is not a house. It is a piece of land, which should be supplied with water, electricity and sanitation, on which a recipient can build their own house.

When serviced sites are included, the number of “housing opportunities” delivered rises to 4,060,795 as of 2015/16.

However, concerns have been raised over the accuracy of the housing statistics. Experts caution that since the figures have not been independently verified they should be viewed as “indicative rather than entirely conclusive”. – Kate Wilkinson

Gender

Claim: “At the level of gender, at senior management level males remain dominant at 67.6% and females at 32.4%.”

Verdict: correct

The commission for employment equity’s 2015/16 annual report showed that 67.6% of employees at senior management were men and 32.4% of employees were women. – Kate Wilkinson

Agriculture

Claim: “There has also been a 19% decline in households involved in agriculture from 2.9 million in 2011 to 2.3 million households in 2016.”

Verdict: correct

The Agricultural Household section in Stats SA’s 2016 Community Survey shows that households involved in agriculture decreased from 2.88 million in 2011 to 2.33 million in 2015. The statistical agency indicated that the drop can be attributed to the drought between 2014 and 2015.

Using the unrounded figures, the drop is 17%, not 19%. – Gopolang Makou

Tourism

Claim: “Our tourist arrival numbers for the period January to November 2016 increased to 9 million, an increase of just over 1 million arrivals from 2015. This represents a 13% growth in tourism arrivals.”

Verdict: correct

Statistics South Africa records the monthly tourist arrivals in South Africa. It downloads the data covering a specific calendar month from the department of home affairs.

The total number of tourist arrivals between January and November 2016 adds up to 9 million, as Zuma stated. (Note: Figures for December 2016 are yet to be released.)

Month     2013         2014       2015       2016
January     850,759         949,403       877,712       1,012,641
February     715,769         734,122       681,216       803,770
March     815,075         751,816       733,241       904,594
April     803,475         840,100       719,557       795,919
May     699,658         714,121       685,407       760,749
June     677,085         672,726       610,092       691,414
July     789,168         724,199       732,891       822,416
August     829,021         828,531      731,248       833,638
September     783,933         752,681      716,750      793,610
October     794,494         820,675      748,561       850,956
November     835,196         826,163      774,378       809,349
Total     8,593,633         8,614,537     8,011,053       9,079,056

During the same period in 2015, 8,011,05 tourists arrived in South Africa. The increase between 2015 and 2016 therefore is 13%.

However, arrivals in 2015 were much lower than the corresponding periods in 2014 and 2013, when more than 8.5 million tourists arrived between January and November in each year.Vinayak Bhardwaj & Ziyanda Ngcobo

Social grants

Claim: “Social grants now reach close to 17 million people, mainly older persons and children”

Verdict: downplayed

Figures supplied to Africa Check by the South African Social Security Agency (SASSA), shows that more than 17 million people were receiving a grant at the end of January.

Of those, 3,283,286 were recipients of the grant for older persons. By far the largest number of grants were for child support, with more than 12 million people receiving this type. – Julie Bourdin

Grant type Number
Old age grant 3,283,286
War veteran’s grant 185
Disability grant 1, 069, 802
Grant in aid 159, 515
Child support grant 12,039,444
Foster child grant 411,133
Care dependency grant 143,824
Total 17,094,331

Environment

Claim: “We welcome the decline in rhino poaching incidents since October 2015 which is for the first time in a decade.”

Verdict: unproven

Consolidated figures for rhino poaching in 2016 have not yet been released. The latest figures were provided by the department of environmental affairs in a September 2016 media release. this was confirmed to Africa Check by departmental spokesman, Albi Modise.

Between January and August 2016, 702 rhinos were poached countrywide, compared to 796 rhinos between January and July 2015 and a total of 1,175 rhino poaching incidents for the whole year, as recorded by the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime.

While this does indicate a decline in the incidents of poached rhino’s (40 fewer incidents were recorded in 2015 than in 2014), this is a relatively small decline when compared to the steady increase in poaching incidents since 2008.

Africa Check will only be able to verify this claim once the 2016 figures have been released. – Gopolang Makou

Year       Recorded incidents
2008       83
2009      122
2010      333
2011 448
2012 668
2013 1,004
2014 1,215
2015 1,175

Researched by Africa Check, a non-partisan organisation which promotes accuracy in public debate and the media. Twitter

Researched by Africa Check, a non-partisan organisation which promotes accuracy in public debate and the media. Twitter @AfricaCheck and www.africacheck.org

 

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