Either incumbent Amara Essy of Ivory Coast or former Malian president Alpha Oumar Konare, both from French-speaking west Africa, will be elected chairman of the AU Commission by their peers at the July 4 to 12 summit in Maputo.
Whichever candidate wins, he will be tasked with the day-to-day running of the Commission, the key executive body of the AU.
The AU last year succeeded the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), which was much criticised during its 39 years of existence for being powerless in resolving Africa's myriad conflicts.
As both candidates continue along the campaign trail, intense political bargaining is going on between AU member states to try to choose the new commission leader by consensus.
Essy and Konare are criss-crossing the African continent trying to rally African leaders behind them.
"It will be a close-run race and they know that," said one observer in Addis Ababa, where the AU is headquartered.
"The presidents (of African states) are likely to make their choice only after the first two rounds, during which we can expect some abstentions," he said.
While AU heavyweights South Africa, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Nigeria and Senegal have reportedly already thrown their backing behind one of the two candidates, most of the grouping's 53 member states have not yet decided whom to pick, a source close to the AU said.
Some member states do not like the idea of both hopefuls coming from west Africa.
The tiny island state of Mauritius, which lies off Africa's southeastern coast and, despite its miniscule size, is an economic powerhouse, has said it would prefer there being "one sole candidate for the west Africa region".
Mauritian Foreign Minister Anil Gayan said that the inability of Ivory Coast, which logically backs Essy, and Mali, which supports Konare, to agree to one candidate for their region could lead to deadlock at the Maputo summit.
"We could be heading for deadlock at Maputo, which could lead to us fielding a compromise candidate," he said, without indicating if Mauritius would put forward a candidate if such a situation should arise.
Gayan did say, however, that Equatorial Guinea - a tiny former Spanish colony in central Africa with masses of offshore oil wealth - had shown interest in fielding a candidate.
The former president of Sao Tome and Principe, Miguel Trovoada, had been proposed as a candidate, but his bid was rejected because it arrived long after the deadline for naming contestants, and because Sao Tome is in arrears in its AU payments.
In the event of a deadlock at the Maputo summit over the two west African candidates, African leaders could well opt for a third candidate.
That could be Trovoada, recently appointed by Essy as special AU envoy to strife-torn Ivory Coast.
Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo has belittled the competition over the post of Commission chairperson, saying no former chief of state should contest a "subaltern position".
"This post should be left to our competent diplomats," Gbagbo said, underscoring his backing for Essy, a former Ivory Coast foreign minister and ambassador to the United Nations.
In theory, however, the presidential shoot-out will still be between Essy - the man who has overseen the transition from OAU to AU and is widely considered one of Africa's wise men - and Konare, the Malian head of state who willingly stood down after two terms in office, as required by his country's constitution.
Delegates in Maputo will also elect a Commission vice-president, for which Rwanda and Zambia are fielding candidates, and eight commissioners from the continent's five regions.
South African President Thabo Mbeki, who holds the AU's revolving presidency, will also hand that post on to his Mozambican counterpart Joachim Chissano. - Sapa-AFP.
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