Liberia, the oldest republic in Africa,⁽²⁾ has a vibrant history that originated from its slave repatriates.⁽³⁾ Since then, it has endured a brutal civil war (from 1989–2003) that saw approximately 250,000 people perish as victims of crimes against humanity, and countless other people have suffered similarly from mass atrocity crimes (during that period). However, since 2005, optimism has been a defining characteristic in the country: it seemed as if the democratic bug had bitten Liberia. This hopefulness may be short lived, as it may not be a true reflection of classical democratic practices.

A brief political history

In 1980, Sergeant Samuel Doe overthrew William Tolbert after riots following a sharp increase in food prices. This violent coup was monumental because it set the tone for the political climate in Liberia for the next 20 years: Tolbert and his cabinet were executed,⁽⁴⁾ and arbitrary violent rule and economic collapse triggered a civil war in 1989 that continued to ravage the country for the next 14 years. Ironically, Doe was also executed in a similar brutal fashion to Tolbert. The infamous Charles Taylor then took charge of Liberia in 1990 with the support of his National Patriotic Front of Liberia (NPFL) political party.

The years to follow saw the party splinter, and rebel factions broke away. There was a brief peace agreement in 1995; however, intense conflict resurfaced in 1999, and in 2003 Taylor finally stepped down.⁽⁵⁾ In 2005, Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, Nobel Peace Prize Laureate for women’s rights and social development, was the first African woman to be elected as head of state.⁽⁶⁾ Since then the United Party (UP) leader has brought electricity and water to the metropolitan parts of Monrovia and charmed foreign investors and heads of state to increase their economic and social commitments and creditors have written off billions in debt.⁽⁷⁾

The recent 2011 election campaign kicked off with 15 registered political parties.⁽⁸⁾ Campaign period July to October 2011. The presidential election was scheduled for 11 October 2011 and the election results were to be released on 25 October 2011, followed by a possible run-off election on 6 November 2011.⁽⁹⁾ Johnson-Sirleaf’s campaign slogan – “don’t change the pilot when the plane hasn’t landed yet” – painted on billboards in the capital portrays her wearing a pilot’s garb.⁽¹⁰⁾ This gentle campaign did well in drawing supporters. The first election saw the incumbent Johnson-Sirleaf win 43.9% of the votes, Winston Tubman 32.7%, Prince Johnson 11.6% and Charles Brumskine with 5.5%, and the voter turn out was 71.6% of the population.⁽¹¹⁾ As Johnson-Sirleaf failed to reach the threshold, the elections then defaulted to a run-off phase between Johnson-Sirleaf and Tubman, of the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC). Johnson-Sirleaf won a staggering 90.7% of the votes and Tubman a mere 9.3%. However, the voter turnout was reduced by nearly 50%, as only 38.6% of the population turned out to vote.⁽¹²⁾

Election intrigue

The dismal election turnout reveals the party politics and tension between the opposition. Both Johnson-Sirleaf and Tubman came under intense scrutiny because of their participation in the Liberian civil war, the subsequent allegations of being accused of crimes against humanity, and respective election fraud and incited violence.

The 2006 Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) of the Liberian civil war findings recommended that the TRC was to determine and investigate the root causes of the crimes and to what extent the crimes against humanity were committed. Furthermore, the impunity was to be addressed and the victims and perpetrators were to be identified. Among other restitution measures, reconciliation by prosecuting perpetrators and remembering the importance of the past were emphasised.⁽¹³⁾ This commission was inaugurated by Johnson-Sirleaf.⁽¹⁴⁾ She gained most support from opposition parties because one of her campaign win conditions was that she would not implement the recommendations of the TRC in a bid to move forward.⁽¹⁵⁾ Subsequently this serves to benefit the majority of the election participators as each had some involvement in the Liberian civil war. The incumbent Johnson-Sirleaf initially supported Taylor in the Liberian civil war, in his attempt to overthrow Doe, however she turned against him.⁽¹⁶⁾ In a bid to engage Johnson-Sirleaf in a tit-for-tat debate, Tubman started criticis ing that “Madame Sirleaf doesn’t deserve a Nobel Peace Prize because she committed violence in this country.”⁽¹⁷⁾ This had a realistic sting to her campaign because she too was recommended by the TRC to be barred from public office for the next 30 years.⁽¹⁸⁾ However, Tubman too was filmed committing mass atrocity crimes.⁽¹⁹⁾

This pledge to ignore the findings and recommendations of the TRC was countered by Tubman, who said that he would implement the TRC measures,⁽²⁰⁾ as Johnson-Sirleaf did not effectively bring any reconciliation to Liberia,⁽²¹⁾ nor did she effectively reduce the 80% unemployment rate. In this election bid, the support of Johnson and Brumskine was vital for both Johnson-Sirleaf and Tubman. However both the second and third runners up have pledged their support for Johnson-Sirleaf. Johnson explains that he “fears being prosecuted for war crimes.” Furthermore, he prefers dealing with Johnson-Sirleaf if that means that the TRC recommendations will not be implemented.⁽²²⁾ Tubman hoped that he would sway the key player Johnson in the run-off elections. However, solidarity could not be found because Tubman could not make a greater sacrifice and erase the TRC recommendations from his mandate.⁽²³⁾ As Tubman began loosing support and the hope to win the run-off, he threatened to boycott the elections and urged his supporters to stay away from the polls.⁽²⁴⁾ Thereafter he called for a re-election because the run-off elections could not be deemed legitimate.⁽²⁵⁾

After the first presidential election, Tubman claimed that there were no transparent mechanisms in place to validate the election. The monitor was the National Elections Commission (NEC), which was accused of election fraud as they favoured the incumbent Johnson-Sirleaf.⁽²⁶⁾ Johnson accused Tubman similarly.⁽²⁷⁾ Although the International Criminal Court (ICC) wished to monitor the elections and election related developments, they were ultimately denied.⁽²⁸⁾ In spite of the negative reports, the elections were commended by the United Nations (UN) as James Froyoman (Poll Chief of the NEC) explained that the country was reaching a new level of maturity because a “new dimension where the Liberian people chose the ballot box over the barrel of a gun.”⁽²⁹⁾ However, one week before the run-off election Froyoman was forced to resign.⁽³⁰⁾ Furthermore, the aid of the Liberian National Police (LNP) was considered vital and increasingly helpful.⁽³¹⁾

These reports are contradicted as the LNP was reported to have used “excessive force and fired weapons on unarmed persons, resulting in several deaths.” This occurred during the CDC march on 7 November 2011.⁽³²⁾ Another alarming development was that Tubman claimed that the 7 November 2011 violence was in fact an attempt by the LNP to assassinate him. Tubman reports that “After I arrived on the scene, within five minutes, the violence began. So, I believe it indicates that this was an attempt to get rid of me, or me and my vice president together, because otherwise they would have opened fire, or they would have made attempts to disperse the crowd much before the time I came there”.⁽³³⁾ Although this account seems convincing, it is also evident that the current Government practices “political competition and not political assassinations”. In addition to the Government violence, the opposition had set UP offices and local radio stations ablaze, which set Liberia further on edge.⁽³⁴⁾

Concluding statements

Thus far, it has been assumed that the democratic elections will cement the fragile democracy. However, as this fragility is constantly tested, it is clear that elections cannot be the resolution to the underlying problems. The infrastructure remains in ruins and Liberia still depends on the good will of the international community. Refugees have not been repatriated, the presence of UN peacekeeping forces places tension on the civilians, and corruption, unemployment and illiteracy is deeply rooted in the Liberian society.⁽³⁵⁾ It is true Johnson-Sirleaf has done altruistic work by bringing essential services to some parts of the country and improved the international reputation of Liberia,⁽³⁶⁾ but she may easily be critiqued in the same line of fire as Johnson and Tubman.

It is inevitable that attention is drawn to the hypocrisies of Johnson-Sirleaf’s mandate, although she claims her reasons not to implement the TRC are to look forward to the future, it may be doing a greater disservice to Liberia’s citizens if the TRC recommendations are not implemented. Furthermore, the level of democracy is questionable if the current leadership as well as the opposition have committed crimes against humanity, and have not been subjected to punitive measures. This is a commentary of the political mood in Liberia, enforcing the norm that impunity and perpetrators would be awarded.

Corruption and cronyism continue to erode institutions,⁽³⁷⁾ contributing to the long-lived arbitrary situation of the 1990s. This will be evident for as long as electoral candidates continue to manipulate elections, such as Tubman did by boycotting the run-off, and as the Johnson-Sirleaf Government used fear against opposition marchers. Liberia’s fragility does not depend on the success of an election. But the election acts as a Litmus test, testing for volatile substances.⁽³⁸⁾ An election metaphorically may have somewhat of an impact. However, it is proven through Johnson-Sirleaf’s previous term, that monumental statements such as electing the first female African president, will not manifest itself into appropriate action to combat poverty, corruption and impunity. In order for Liberia to move away from its social and economic plight and occasional violent outbursts, the roots of the conflict need to be addressed, particularly to bring punitive measures to those avoiding them.

NOTES:

(1) Contact Arina Muresan through Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Conflict and Terrorism Unit (conflict.terrorism@consultancyafrica.com) .
(2) ‘Liberia Profile’, BBC News, 4 November 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(3) Ibid.
(4) ‘Liberia: Timeline’, BBC News, 12 May 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk.
(5) Ibid.
(6) Ibid.
(7) ‘Liberia run-off: Tubman threatens boycott’, News 24, 4 November 2011, http://www.news24.com.
(8) ‘Liberia readies for key presidential vote’, News 24, 7 October 2011, http://www.news24.com.
(9) NEC: Republic of Liberia website, http://www.necliberia.org.
(10) Ibid.
(11) Ibid.
(12) Ibid.
(13) ‘TRC Report’, TRC of Liberia, 20 June 2009, http://trcofliberia.org.
(14) ‘Ex-warlord boosts Sirleaf's vote bid’, News 24, 18 October 2011, http://www.news24.com.
(15) Ibid.
(16) Ibid.
(17) ‘Liberian election rival slams Nobel award’, News 24, 7 October 2011, http://www.news24.com.
(18) Ibid.
(19) Ibid.
(20) Ibid.
(21) ‘Sirleaf facing run-off in tight election’, News 24, 13 October 2011, http://www.news24.com.
(22) Ibid.
(23) Ibid.
(24) Ibid.
(25) Ibid.
(26) Ibid.
(27) ‘Liberia crisis as poll fraud claimed’, News 24, 16 October 2011, http://www.news24.com.
(28) Ibid.
(29) Ibid.
(30) ‘Liberia's election chief resigns’, News 24, 31 October 2011, http://www.news24.com.
(31) Ibid.
(32) ‘Police fired weapons on unarmed persons’, Liberian Times, 14 November 2011, http://theliberiantimes.com.
(33) ‘Liberian Opposition Leader Charges Policy with Attempted Assassination’, Voice of America, 14 November 2011, http://www.voanews.com.
(34) Ibid.
(35) Ibid.
(36) Ibid.
(37) ‘Deadly Riot in Liberia Day Before Vote’, Time Magazine, 7 November 2011, http://www.time.com.
(38) Ibid.

Written by Arina Muresan ⁽¹⁾