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Egypt inching towards US position on Iraq

3rd February 2003

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Signals have appeared in Cairo over the past few days suggesting that Egypt, one of Washington's key Arab allies, appears to be rallying to the US view that Baghdad must disarm voluntarily or face war.

One of the clearest signs that Cairo might be dropping its opposition to a war on Iraq appeared in a picture published Sunday by the influential state-run newspaper, Al-Ahram.

It showed editor-in-chief Ibrahim Nafie, who is known to be close to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, shaking hands with US National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice after she granted Al-Ahram an interview detailing US plans for Iraq following its "liberation".

"It is a sign that things are changing and that it is better to align oneself on US" policies, said political analyst Mustafa Kamel al-Said.

The Egyptian press serves as a screen between Mubarak, one of the "moderate" leaders of the pro-Western Arab camp, and the staunchly anti-American Egyptian public opinion.

Over the past several months, the state-run press has blasted the United States and its ally Israel, accusing them of having leagued up against Iraq and the Arab world at large.

But on Friday, the first signals of a change in official thinking emerged when Al-Ahram published an editorial criticising Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and accusing him of fanning the flames of the current crisis by threatening the United States.

"At a time when the main Arab states are deploying enormous efforts to find a peaceful settlement ... the Iraqi regime comes up with bombastic statements that obstruct them and give the camp of war in the United States new justification to wage war," Nafie wrote.

For his part, Said, who lectures at Cairo University, said editorials like Al-Ahram's on Friday are a clear indication that the government is changing its tune.

"Mubarak has made up his own conclusions: the United States is determined to launch a military campaign and they will win," said Said.

And a victory will mean "a new situation in the Middle East and people, such as his (Mubarak's) son, Gamal, are telling him it is better to join the bandwagon than wait for the train," Said added.

Said said he bet Egypt is banking on some form of economic reward -- like a free trade deal between the countries -- on top of the two billion dollars it already receives annually from Washington in exchange for its support.

A top-ranking Egyptian delegation led by Mubarak's political advisor Osama al-Baz is currently in the United States for talks on the Iraqi crisis.

Mubarak's youngest son, Gamal, who was appointed by his father in September to head the ruling National Democratic Party's political committee, is accompanying Baz.

"There are journalists with them as well, including Abdel Monem Saeed (from Al-Ahram) who support this alignment with the United States," he added.

But Al-Ahram is not the only newspaper to have fired shots at Saddam.

Over the weekend, journalist Ibrahim Saada, also known to be close to Mubarak, gave a clear signal of the changing mood in a piece published in the weekly Akhbar Al-Yawm.

Saada wrote that some Egyptians are calling for a boycott of US products, while others demand that Egypt break diplomatic ties with Washington and expect Mubarak to say flatly that "any attack on Iraq would be an attack against Egypt." "But the president is not adopting this attitude, which would be useless and would fail to solve the crisis," Saada said.

"And if we agree that no one wants a war on Iraq we must also agree that Saddam Hussein's action is not helping to push away the specter of war," he added.

Rather than join the ranks of the radical forces, Egypt is in fact putting out signals that indicate that it plans to guard its place as a regional moderator between the Arab world and Israel and the United States, Said said.

Until now, Mubarak's stated policy has been that a war on Iraq should be avoided at all costs because it would spell "chaos" for the entire region, and at the same time Egypt has urged Baghdad to cooperate fully with UN inspectors -Sapa/AFP.
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