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Sign
als have appeared in Cairo over the past few days suggesting
that Egypt, one of Washington's key Arab allies, appears to be
rallying to the US view that Baghdad must disarm voluntarily or
face war.
One of the clearest signs that Cairo might be dropping its
opposition to a war on Iraq appeared in a picture published Sunday
by the influential state-run newspaper, Al-Ahram.
It showed editor-in-chief Ibrahim Nafie, who is known to be close
to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, shaking hands with US National
Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice after she granted Al-Ahram an
interview detailing US plans for Iraq following its
"liberation".
"It is a sign that things are changing and that it is better to
align oneself on US" policies, said political analyst Mustafa Kamel
al-Said.
The Egyptian press serves as a screen between Mubarak, one of the
"moderate" leaders of the pro-Western Arab camp, and the staunchly
anti-American Egyptian public opinion.
Over the past several months, the state-run press has blasted the
United States and its ally Israel, accusing them of having leagued
up against Iraq and the Arab world at large.
But on Friday, the first signals of a change in official thinking
emerged when Al-Ahram published an editorial criticising Iraqi
President Saddam Hussein and accusing him of fanning the flames of
the current crisis by threatening the United States.
"At a time when the main Arab states are deploying enormous efforts
to find a peaceful settlement ... the Iraqi regime comes up with
bombastic statements that obstruct them and give the camp of war in
the United States new justification to wage war," Nafie
wrote.
For his part, Said, who lectures at Cairo University, said
editorials like Al-Ahram's on Friday are a clear indication that
the government is changing its tune.
"Mubarak has made up his own conclusions: the United States is
determined to launch a military campaign and they will win," said
Said.
And a victory will mean "a new situation in the Middle East and
people, such as his (Mubarak's) son, Gamal, are telling him it is
better to join the bandwagon than wait for the train," Said
added.
Said said he bet Egypt is banking on some form of economic reward
-- like a free trade deal between the countries -- on top of the
two billion dollars it already receives annually from Washington in
exchange for its support.
A top-ranking Egyptian delegation led by Mubarak's political
advisor Osama al-Baz is currently in the United States for talks on
the Iraqi crisis.
Mubarak's youngest son, Gamal, who was appointed by his father in
September to head the ruling National Democratic Party's political
committee, is accompanying Baz.
"There are journalists with them as well, including Abdel Monem
Saeed (from Al-Ahram) who support this alignment with the United
States," he added.
But Al-Ahram is not the only newspaper to have fired shots at
Saddam.
Over the weekend, journalist Ibrahim Saada, also known to be close
to Mubarak, gave a clear signal of the changing mood in a piece
published in the weekly Akhbar Al-Yawm.
Saada wrote that some Egyptians are calling for a boycott of US
products, while others demand that Egypt break diplomatic ties with
Washington and expect Mubarak to say flatly that "any attack on
Iraq would be an attack against Egypt." "But the president is not
adopting this attitude, which would be useless and would fail to
solve the crisis," Saada said.
"And if we agree that no one wants a war on Iraq we must also agree
that Saddam Hussein's action is not helping to push away the
specter of war," he added.
Rather than join the ranks of the radical forces, Egypt is in fact
putting out signals that indicate that it plans to guard its place
as a regional moderator between the Arab world and Israel and the
United States, Said said.
Until now, Mubarak's stated policy has been that a war on Iraq
should be avoided at all costs because it would spell "chaos" for
the entire region, and at the same time Egypt has urged Baghdad to
cooperate fully with UN inspectors -Sapa/AFP.