The revolution that took place in Egypt earlier this year raised hopes of a better future for Egyptians as the autocratic Government of Hosni Mubarak was removed on 11 February 2011.⁽²⁾ Half a year later however, people on the ground are not seeing any difference in their living conditions. People are becoming impatient and are again gathering in Tahrir Square in Cairo. They gather to put pressure on military rulers for faster reforms and prosecution of officials from the era of Mubarak.⁽³⁾ The outcome of this ‘new revolution’ is uncertain, but the challenges facing Egypt will not yield results on the ground anytime soon, which will cause further frustration among people. The economic situation facing the country makes any prospects of improving living conditions difficult, which then becomes a contributing factor for further protests and instability.⁽⁴⁾

Background

Hosni Mubarak was in office since 16 October 1981, following the assassination of Anwar el-Sadat, until he was removed in early 2011.⁽⁵⁾ During his reign, he was able to negotiate issues of regional security, solidify the relationship with Washington, D.C. and suppress Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism.⁽⁶⁾ In the eyes of many, he was seen as an ally of the West. For the Egyptians, however, reality was different. In addition to the economic and political grievances, police bureaucracy has reached into almost every aspect of public life in the large impoverished nation, thus giving the police wide and unchecked power.⁽⁷⁾ There have been several incidents over the years of police brutality and corruption.⁽⁸⁾ Political opposition was banned and economic policies and corruption have led to a dire economic situation.⁽⁹⁾ This was the backdrop of the events taking place at the beginning of 2011, which led to the removal of Mubarak and his regime.

More than 800 people were killed in police action during the 18 days of revolution, which removed Hosni Mubarak and his Government from office.⁽¹⁰⁾ The revolution was able to mobilise a large part of the Egyptian population as a result of the way the Mubarak regime had run its fiscal policies for more than 30 years.⁽¹¹⁾ These policies included the privatisation of the state sector, downsizing of public welfare, and making the public and private sector almost inseparable.⁽¹²⁾ Corruption was rife, as the regime used the state apparatus to channel the sale of cheap public businesses and handing out building concessions to people linked to the regime.⁽¹³⁾ This ‘neo-patrimonial’ way of conducting business, by way of corruption, makes people sceptical towards the role the military will have after the elections.⁽¹⁴⁾ At stake is democracy and public welfare.

Current status

Following the removal of Mubarak’s regime, an interim Government was put in place. The interim Government, which consists of a military 18-member ruling council, will be in power until executive powers are transferred following the presidential election scheduled for November 2011.⁽¹⁵⁾ The interim military Government is under great pressure to produce results, as people are getting impatient.⁽¹⁶⁾ There is a popular demand for improvement in people’s living conditions, but the economic realities are not able to meet these demands and expectations.⁽¹⁷⁾ Protesters are again gathering in Tahrir Square and other rallying points across Egypt to continue their demands for reforms and prosecution of the former officials of the Mubarak Government.⁽¹⁸⁾ On Tuesday, 28 June 2011, there were clashes between the police and protesters on Tahrir Square, turning a peaceful protest into the most violent since Mubarak‘s ousting.⁽¹⁹⁾ The ‘new’ or continued uprisings are being referred to as the ‘March of the Million.’⁽²⁰⁾ Some would argue that the uprisings now taking place are merely a continuation of the ones started at the end of January 2011 and the outcome is thus uncertain.⁽²¹⁾

Political challenges moving forward

There are three key political challenges which may contribute to further destabilisation in Egypt. First, the lack of visible changes on the ground and the need for improving living conditions may not be attainable in the near future, but this was also one of the triggers for the revolution that took place earlier this year. To complicate matters, the current interim Government is critiqued for both its involvement with the previous administration and its inability to improve living conditions. Third is the prospect of a new Government following the elections in November 2011, which will be unified and able to deal with the tasks needed to be able to bring about a stable political environment.

The political situation in Egypt remains fragile and protests keep occurring throughout the country, as a response to the difficult economic situation.⁽²²⁾ These new demonstrations are a call for the interim military rulers to improve living conditions by democracy, job opportunities, and infrastructure reconstruction.⁽²³⁾ Since the fall of Mubarak’s Government, there has been no visible change for people on the ground.⁽²⁴⁾ The protesters are enjoying support from most of the political parties and coalitions in Egypt as well as the Muslim Brotherhood.⁽²⁵⁾ People are not pleased with the progress in the prosecution of those killing protesters and former officials; there is a demand for justice and faster trials.⁽²⁶⁾ These demands are handed to the interim military Government who is facing critiques for its role. The head of the military council, which replaced the Mubarak Government, Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, is also being questioned for his close relations to the previous regime.⁽²⁷⁾ Tantawi served as Defence Minister for two decades during Mubarak’s reign and several feel that he represents a continuation of Mubarak’s power structure (the judiciary, police, and civil service).⁽²⁸⁾ The military has also been criticised for its role during the demonstrations. This led to the military pressuring the news media to censor criticism to protect its image; a worrying move, as it may undermine politicians’ ability to bring it under civilian control.⁽²⁹⁾

The Muslim Brotherhood was for several years the only opposition to Mubarak’s regime, but they were officially banned.⁽³⁰⁾ Following the revolution, there are internal divisions within the Muslim Brotherhood; factions are breaking away and moving toward the political centre.⁽³¹⁾ There are disagreements on how to solve the insurmountable economic situation facing the country and the consequences it will have on the prospect for a relatively peaceful Egypt.⁽³²⁾ These internal issues are not conducive for the prospect of a much-needed new Government that has the possibility to bring about political stability and embark on the challenges facing the country. This is especially important as the unifying force of opposition to the secular dictatorship of Mubarak and his Government is starting to fade.⁽³³⁾ The peaceful protest on the night of 28 June 2011, which turned into violent clashes between the police and protesters in Tahrir Square, are evidence of the fragility of the relative peace in Egypt and the difference between those who want fast change and those weary of post-revolutionary tumult.⁽³⁴⁾ People are no longer fighting an autocratic regime, but the dire economic situation they are facing.

Dire economic situation

The economic situation facing Egypt is dire. Egypt’s economy is vulnerable, as there is limited access to natural resources in the country.⁽³⁵⁾ The economic growth has largely been dependent on foreign direct investments, steel- and cement production, and tourism; all of which are sectors vulnerable to shifts in the world economy.⁽³⁶⁾ These sectors have also been hit hard by the ongoing revolution. Foreign currency reserves are down, exports have decreased by 40%, and tourist revenues have reduced by US$13.5 billion since the start of the uprisings.⁽³⁷⁾ To further fuel the economic crisis, the constant strikes lead to industries working at only 50% capacity.⁽³⁸⁾ Low wages contribute to corruption being rife, which is also hampering investor confidence and leads to less foreign investment.⁽³⁹⁾ The Minister of Finance, Samir Radwan, has turned to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and neighbouring countries for emergency loans to help Egypt out of this crisis. These loans, however, will only aid the budget deficit, which is projected to rise to 10% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2012.⁽⁴⁰⁾ These loans will not be noticed on the ground and people will not have their demands of improved living conditions met. The short-term solution is to restore security, but economic programmes need to be launched to boost private sector investments.⁽⁴¹⁾ This is, however, also a difficult area; the shift to a privatisation of the economy has led to higher unemployment rates and a weakened welfare system.⁽⁴²⁾

The pressure is thus on Samir Radwan to come up with the funds in order to quell the tide of discontent before the relatively peaceful revolution of Egypt escalates.⁽⁴³⁾ A task which seems insurmountable as the sectors needed to bring about economic growth continue to be affected by the ongoing revolution.⁽⁴⁴⁾

Concluding remarks

If the demands of the people are not met, however impossible they may be to meet, the relatively peaceful demonstration in Egypt may escalate and turn more violent. The continued strikes and insecurity affecting industry, business confidence, and tourism will lead only to demands becoming even more unattainable. The reforms needed in Egypt would take years to implement, regardless of which Government is elected, and people will thus not see the changes they are demanding and hoping for.⁽⁴⁵⁾

Establishing credible and accountable institutions, the separation of public and private sectors, and dealing with corruption are but a few of the challenges facing Egypt and its new Government.⁽⁴⁶⁾ The economic situation facing Egypt, however, makes this a difficult, if even a possible task. After years of mismanagement and draining of the economy by a few, the interim military rulers are faced with a budget deficit which continues to increase. The revolution, which started in Egypt, was not over in February 2011; it was merely the beginning of a transformation of an entire country that will take years. This predisposes that the Government elected later this year chooses to embark on these tasks and the population accepts the time it will take. If not then, the revolutions we have seen so far may not be as ‘peaceful,’ hampering the economy further, thus making living conditions even worse.

NOTES:

(1) Contact Christine Storø through Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Conflict & Terrorism Unit ( conflict.terrorism@consultancyafrica.com This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it ).
(2) Head, J., ‘Trying to meet Egypt’s economic expectations’, BBC News Middle East, 25 May 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(3) ‘New protests rage across Egypt’, Al Jazeera, 8 July 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net.
(4) Head, J., ‘Trying to meet Egypt’s economic expectations’, BBC News Middle East, 25 May 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(5) ‘Egypt News – Revolution and Aftermath’, New York Times, 8 July 2011, http://topics.nytimes.com.
(6) Ibid.
(7) Ibid.
(8) Ibid.
(9) Ibid.
(10) ‘New protests rage across Egypt’, Al Jazeera, 08 July 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net.
(11) Hartwig, L., ‘Kampen fortsetter’, Dagsavisen, 14 July 2011, p. 18.
(12) Ibid.
(13) Ibid.
(14) Ibid.
(15) ‘Egypt News – Revolution and Aftermath’, New York Times, 8 July 2011, http://topics.nytimes.com.
(16) Head, J., ‘Trying to meet Egypt’s economic expectations’, BBC News Middle East, 25 May 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(17) Ibid.
(18) ‘New protests rage across Egypt’, Al Jazeera, 08 July 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net.
(19) El Gibaly, L. and Amer, D.S., ‘Clashes ease in Cairo, but underline Nation’s fragile condition’, New York Times, 29 June 2011, http://www.nytimes.com.
(20) ‘New protests rage across Egypt’, Al Jazeera, 08 July 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net.
(21) Naib, F., ‘Tahrir Square: ‘This time we’re here to stay’, Al Jazeera, 08 July 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net.
(22) ‘Egypt News – Revolution and Aftermath’, New York Times, 8 July 2011, http://topics.nytimes.com.
(23) ‘New protests rage across Egypt’, Al Jazeera, 08 July 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net.
(24) Ibid.
(25) Ibid.
(26) Ibid.
(27) Ibid.
(28) ‘New protests rage across Egypt’, Al Jazeera, 8 July 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net.
(29) ‘Egypt News – Revolution and Aftermath’, New York Times, 8 July 2011, http://topics.nytimes.com.
(30) Ibid.
(31) Ibid.
(32) Ibid.
(33) Ibid.
(34) Ibid.
(35) Hartwig, L., ‘Kampen fortsetter’, Dagsavisen, 14 July 2011, p. 18.
(36) Ibid.
(37) Head, J., ‘Trying to meet Egypt’s economic expectations’, BBC News Middle East, 25 May 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(38) Ibid.
(39) Ibid.
(40) Ibid.
(41) Ibid.
(42) Hartwig, L., ‘Kampen fortsetter’, Dagsavisen, 14 July 2011, p. 18.
(43) Head, J., ‘Trying to meet Egypt’s economic expectations’, BBC News Middle East, 25 May 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(44) ‘Egypt News – Revolution and Aftermath’, New York Times, 8 July 2011, http://topics.nytimes.com.
(45) Hartwig, L., ‘Kampen fortsetter’, Dagsavisen, 14 July 2011, p. 18.
(46) Ibid.

Written by Christine Storø ⁽¹⁾