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Economy grew by 1,5% in first quarter

28th May 2003

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The South African economy grew by 1,5% in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous three months, Statistics SA reported yesterday.

Increases in the seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product (GDP) in the four quarters of last year were three per cent, 3,8%, 2,9% and 2,4%.

This yielded an annual growth rate last year of three per cent in real GDP at market prices, Stats SA said.

Releasing the data in Pretoria, Statistician-General Pali Lehohla sought to assure reporters that the figures were accurate.

They were unlikely to have been affected by an error made with the calculation of the CPIX measure of inflation (the consumer price index less mortgage costs).

"The difficulties with the CPIX are quite specific, and quite clearly in the particular area of rentals," he said.

"So, it shouldn't contaminate the other areas where it doesn't have a due impact".

Stats SA has delayed last week's release of the CPIX until the coming Friday because of concerns about its accuracy.

This was after economists warned that Stats SA's use of outdated rental income figures meant annual inflation could have been overstated.

Head of national accounts Joe de Beer said the GDP figures were more reliant on producer price indices than on the consumer price index (CPI).

"There are cases... where we do use the CPI figures, but in those cases we try to use product specific price indices".

Stats SA said the main contributors to growth in the first quarter were the communication and transport industry, and finance, real estate, and business services.

There was also increased activity in the wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants industry.

The seasonally adjusted real annualised value added by non-agricultural industries for the first three months of the year increased by 1,6%.

The unadjusted real GDP at market prices for the first quarter increased by 2,5% compared with the same period last year.

During the four quarters of last year, the unadjusted real GDP at market prices rose by 2,8%, three per cent, 3,2% and three per cent compared with the corresponding quarters of 2001.

Stats SA stressed the GDP estimates were preliminary, and might be revised slightly on the basis of additional evidence.

Lehohla said the review of CPIX came at a time that Stats SA had already been poised to re-examine its "total product spectrum" as well as the information feeding into it.

This exercise would also look at the way Stats SA related to the Statistics Council and how user needs should be met.

The council is the custodian of official statistics.

Lehohla said: "The review might have been precipitated by this crisis on the CPIX. So, it shouldn't suggest that (all) figures we are producing have problems". – Sapa.
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