Thus far in 2011, the continent of Africa has been marked by demonstrations that have ultimately led to the fall of autocratic regimes. Africans have provoked the emergence of a new political awakening, based on the fundamental need for change and ultimately a transition toward legitimate governance within their borders. What began in Tunisia and that saw the end of long-time President Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali’s regime, snowballed across the Arab world into countries such as Algeria, Yemen, Jordan and most notably, Egypt.

Civil resistance to issues of poverty, high levels of unemployment, political corruption within the state and a lack of democratic leadership by President Hosni Mubarak, sparked the largest call for political transformation since the 1970’s. As a consequence, these protests have brought down one of the world’s most outwardly authoritarian regimes and have ended the leader’s thirty-year rule. This paper looks at factors leading to the popular revolution in Egypt, as well as the consequences of this action and finally, what this may mean for Egypt in the long run.

What triggered the Egyptian revolution?

The Egyptian Revolution, also known as the Egyptian Protests, the Days of Rage, the Papyrus Revolution and the Lotus Revolution was largely due to socio-economic and political inequality. Criticised for his overtly authoritarian rule, Mubarak moulded Egypt into a police state whose emergency laws would remain intermittently in effect for over forty years. Coupled with unwavering police brutality, the lack of relatively free and fair elections, a clamp down on the media and freedom of speech, political corruption, unemployment and consequently high levels of poverty and food price inflation laid the foundation to history’s most recent civil rebellion.

Egypt’s emergency law allowed acts of police brutality to go unquestioned, while the constitutional rights of its citizens were suspended. It legalised censorship, banned civil protests and disallowed any formation of political organisations that were not previously approved by the state.⁽²⁾ The suppression of opposition groups and the imprisonment of activists without trial in illegal and undocumented detention facilities were all justified under Mubarak’s citation of terrorism being a large and omnipresent threat.⁽³⁾ One of the hallmarks of Mubarak’s regime was the deployment of police forces dressed in civilian clothes. Unlawful surveillance and the documentation of mass human rights abuses, including public displays of rape and torture became commonplace, while only a handful of those responsible were brought to justice.⁽⁴⁾

Similarly, Mubarak’s hold on the Presidency and his disregard for term limits allowed many prominent businessmen to create economic monopolies, while longstanding Ministers accumulated wealth that became ostensibly disproportionate to the people they were supposedly elected to represent. Poverty in Egypt, where almost half of its population live under US$ 2 a day and who rely heavily on subsidised food, is rampant.⁽⁵⁾ The economic recession debilitated Egypt’s economy and poor living conditions continued unabated.

A brief timeline of important events

In a Tunisia-inspired protest, thousands of Egyptian citizens took to the streets in Cairo on 25 January 2011, also known as Angry Friday, calling for an end to Mubarak’s thirty-year rule. Witnesses reported that protests also broke out in the Mediterranean city of Alexandria, the Nile Delta cities of Mansura and Tanta and in the southern cities of Aswan and Assiut. The Egyptian police responded by violently attacking the demonstrators and throwing tear gas into the crowds. Only a few hours into the protests, the Interior Ministry issued a statement accusing Egypt’s largest and banned opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood of provoking the unrest.⁽⁶⁾ Three protesters and one police officer were killed.

On the second day, the demonstrators defied Egypt’s emergency law by continuing to protest, while the police responded by firing live ammunition. The number of injured people began to increase and another police officer and protester were killed in Cairo. On 27 February 2011, Mohamed ElBaradei, the former head of the United Nations (UN) International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) arrived in Cairo and announced that he would be ready to lead Egypt’s transition.⁽⁷⁾ Shortly after, the country’s internet was shut down, disrupting Facebook, Twitter and Blackberry messenger services.

On 28 January 2011, internet and mobile phone text message users reported a disruption to services. As the police began to prepare for a new wave of protests, an elite special counterterrorism force was deployed at strategic points around Cairo. At that point, the Egyptian Interior Ministry warned that it was prepared to take decisive measures to stop the demonstrations. Eleven civilians were killed in Suez, while arrests had risen into the hundreds.⁽⁸⁾ That evening, Mubarak announced that he had dismissed his Government.

Hours after President Mubarak’s statement of his dissolution of Government, the news that the President would not be stepping down reached Egyptian citizens. The headquarters of the ruling party, the National Democratic Party (NDP), were set alight and for the first time in thirty years, a vice-President was elected. The Egyptian military began to deploy in various towns and cities. By the end of January 2011, foreign investors in Egypt had begun to withdraw their capital amid rising unrest and United States (US), British (UK) and other embassies had initiated the evacuation of their staff.⁽⁹⁾ Mubarak announced his new cabinet, while ordering his newly-elected Prime Minister, Ahmad Shafiq, to keep Government subsidies and reduce prices.

On 1 February 2011, Mubarak announced that he would not run in the next Presidential elections, but that he would also not step down as the current President. The number of protesters in Tahrir Square in Cairo reached over one million people. After one week without the internet, Google redeveloped its ‘speak2tweet’ technology, thus allowing Egyptian citizens to communicate with the outside world.⁽¹⁰⁾ Three days later, heavy violence in Tahrir Square, now also known as Liberation Square, left five people dead and others severely wounded. The following day, more protesters assembled in the Square to witness what has now been termed ‘The Day of Departure’.

By 7 February 2011, banks had reopened while schools and the Egyptian Stock Exchange (ESE) remained closed. In an attempt to pacify the ever increasing number of protesters, the Egyptian Government announced that salaries and pensions would be increased by 15%. One day later, Egypt’s newly elected vice-President, Omar Suleiman announced that the Government would soon enact a number of constitutional and legislative reforms. He did not stipulate how or when these new committees to enact such changes would be formed.

The death toll, according to Human Rights Watch, reached 302 people by 9 February 2011. On the same day thirty-four political prisoners were released, including members of the Muslim Brotherhood. Various Ministers within Egypt’s newly formed cabinet and members of the country’s security forces decided to either resign or were removed from their posts. That evening, Mubarak gave a televised speech in which he repeated his promise to not run in the next Presidential elections, but that he would continue to carry out his responsibilities as the current President. Protesters in Tahrir Square reacted violently and demanded that the army join them in revolt.

On 11 February, vice-President Suleiman announced that Mubarak had resigned and had handed his Presidential power over to the army. Following the announcement, pro-democracy protesters began to clear Tahrir Square. The country's new military rulers promised to hand power to an elected, civilian Government and pledged that Egypt would remain committed to all international treaties, most notably referring to Egypt’s 1979 peace treaty with Israel.⁽¹¹⁾

What is Egypt’s worth? The consequences of revolution

Egypt is a key ally to the West and has been since 1970, and the US has capitalised on Egypt’s leadership role in the Arab world. In the past, Arab states have followed Egypt by example, often nationalising foreign interests such as land reform programmes and adopting the idea of liberal democracy. Egypt controls a significant amount of influence in and amongst Arab councils and during his thirty-years of rule, Mubarak served, on numerous occasions, as a channel through which Syrian, Lebanese, Palestinian, Jordanian, Israeli and US negotiators could communicate.

Secondly, Egypt is the second largest receiver of US foreign aid after Israel, due in part to being the key arbitrator of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.⁽¹²⁾ Following the resignation of Mubarak, Israel has expressed concern that the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty will not be upheld. The Treaty triggered great discontentment within Palestine and since then, Mubarak has acted as an advisor and facilitator of continual peace talks between the two parties.

Fears that the Suez Canal would not be accessible sent the oil price soaring. The canal brings in approximately US$ 400 million per month and is one of Egypt’s largest foreign exchange earners, making it incredibly important to the Egyptian economy.⁽¹³⁾ Moreover, the anxiety about the security of the Suez Canal as a channel for five million barrels of oil a day sent the price of Brent crude souring to above US$ 103 a barrel.⁽¹⁴⁾ The consequences of a closed Suez Canal would be so drastic a step that Credit Agricole, a corporate and investment bank, said in a report that it would consider opening the door to outside military intervention.⁽¹⁵⁾

Lastly, and what could possibly be seen as one of the largest moves toward democratic revolution is the snowball effect the Egyptian revolution could possibly have in the Arab world. Predictions of economic instability in Saudi Arabia and Libya have been formulated, while political protests in Yemen, Jordan, Bahrain and Iran have already begun to stir as citizens of these countries begin to feel empowered by the recent change in another.

International reactions and future responses

The realistic challenges Egypt will face as a consequence of its revolution have left many outside observers in a neutral position. The ‘realpolitik’ surrounding the situation has brought to light the pragmatic effects of what took place in Egypt between 25 January and 10 February 2011. The reactions from international organisations and other countries have been insubstantial, mainly calling for greater dialogue between society and state and offering little practical advice. Commiserating remarks from most of the Arab world, coupled with appraisals toward a new democratic transition by others will do little to console the difficulties Egypt will have to undergo.

The military, and its future decisions, will have to be closely scrutinised as it promises to restore order and civilian rule, which in itself is a lengthy process. If the transferral of power from military to civilian is successful, Mubarak supporters will continue to protest, at the very least, by indicating their discontent with the new regime on their ballot sheets, thus highlighting one of democracy’s most notorious of contradictions. Over time, new committees will have to be created and efficient leaders placed in important positions.

The economy will take time to recover from the setbacks it faced during the revolution, all while civilians wait for an improvement in their general standard of living, with expectations of higher employment rates, lower inflation and exceptional governance. The transition to democracy is a long one, and therefore makes Egypt susceptible to aftershocks. Egyptian citizens have come to learn that change is possible, but are they also willing to be patient?

NOTES:

(1) Contact Daniela Kirkby through Consultancy Africa Intelligence's Africa Watch Unit (africa.watch@consultancyafrica.com).
(2) ‘The Emergency Law in Egypt’, International Federation for Human Rights, 17 November 2001, http://www.fidh.org.
(3) Ibid.
(4) ‘Egypt: Roots of the Revolution’, Chtodelat News, 1 February 2011, http://chtodelat.wordpress.com.
(5) Henry Reske, ‘Egypt’s Poverty, Unemployment, Push Youths to Breaking Point’, Newsmax, 31 January 2011, http://www.newsmax.com.
(6) ‘Timeline: Egypt’s Revolution’, Aljazeera, 14 February 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net.
(7) Louis Charbonneau, ‘Has Mohamed ElBaradei’s Time Arrived?’, Reuters, 15 February 2011, http://www.reuters.com.
(8) ‘Timeline: Egypt’s Revolution’, Aljazeera, 14 February 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net.
(9) ‘Egypt News: The Protests’, New York Times, 17 February 2011, http://topics.nytimes.com.
(10) Shane McGlaun, ‘Google Speak2Tweet Launches, Aimed at Egyptian Protesters’, DailyTech, 1 February 2011, http://www.dailytech.com.
(11) Ben Hubbard and Maggie Michael, ‘Egypt Army commits to Power Transfer, Israel Peace’, ElPaso Times, 12 February 2011, http://www.elpasotimes.com.
(12) John McDermott, ‘US Foreign Aid to Egypt’, Financial Times, 28 January 2011, http://ftalphaville.ft.com.
(13) Jamie Robertson, ‘Egypt causes knee-jerk reaction’, BBC News, 6 February 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(14) Ibid.
(15) ‘Egypt 2011 GDP outlook cut to 3.7% amid lingering risks’, Zawya, 5 February 2011, http://www.zawya.com.

Written by Daniela Kirkby ⁽¹⁾