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Tomorrow's decision on interest rates by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank should not be influenced by political considerations, but rather by the Reserve Bank's constitutional mandate.
Interest rate decisions by the Reserve Bank relate to the predicted state of the economy in six to eighteen months' time, and not current conditions. Even though inflation has fallen below 6% in November 2009, the real question is what the situation will look like by June of this year. If there is space to cut rates then the Reserve Bank must do so, but financial stability requires that the bank remain vigilant on inflation. The impending Eskom electricity hike, base effects with regards to oil and higher-than-inflation wage increases over 2009 will all exert inflationary pressure.
Yesterday the Sunday Independent reported on fresh attempts by members of the National Executive Committee of the ANC to undermine the independence of the Reserve Bank. This is unacceptable; the independence of the Reserve Bank is crucial to overall financial stability and low inflation - higher inflation hurts the entire economy, especially the poor. So any undue influence on the Bank would translate to outcomes that severely restrict the efficiency of the Bank in fighting inflation.
The DA will always protect the independence of institutions such as the Reserve Bank that serve a greater interest than immediate populist calls - it is in no-one's interest to have an unstable financial system and hyperinflation, and yet this is what will happen if the independence of the Bank is not secure.
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