Over the past few months, Africa has appeared in news headlines across the world. Political fighting and unrest has led to massive humanitarian deterioration. Libya and Cote d’Ivoire have failed to achieve peaceful political dialogue, resulting in human rights violations and an ever-increasing death toll. Somalia’s problems, however, have lasted for years. They arise partly from the country’s political instability and widespread, persistent droughts. The combination of these two problems, in addition to economic pressures, causes much concern for the country, and creates a generally tense environment.

This paper aims to highlight these two key areas of concern in the country, namely conflict and drought. It also intends to show what the prolonged implication of these problems has had and will continue to have on the country. Namely, an influx of people across borders, an increase in the risk of disease, and other health issues, are concerns in Somalia’s. Located in the Horn of Africa the concerns and issues in the country have worsened in recent months. Consequently, the international community has been urged to take definitive action before the situation escalates further.

A brief background

Somalia’s political situation has been messy and unstable for several years. Since the fall of Mohammed Siad Baare in 1991, Somalia has been in a state of civil war. No consensus has been reached regarding matters of leadership. With a divided country, and no permanent government, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) formed in 2004 has been recognised by most western countries, as well as the United Nations (UN), the African Union (AU) and the Arab League as the legitimate ruling party of the country. TFG authority in Somalia, however, remains limited.

A major problem in Somalia is that some political parties are organised according to clans and ethnicity. This causes further divide – along ethnic lines – in an already segregated country. One thing in common among all Somalis, however, is their solidarity on matters of tradition and culture. They have a strong loyalty to their clan, regarding the interests of their clan, even at the expense of other Somalis, as their primary obligation.⁽²⁾ This is often a contributing cause to the humanitarian crisis, as pointed out by the Somalia Commission of Inquiry. It referred to the predicaments local famine relief organisations find themselves in. As organisations, they are committed to distribute food evenly and fairly to famine victims; however, clan pressures to respect family obligations and divert relief supplies to their clan are not easily side-lined.⁽³⁾

Delving briefly into their economical means and way of living, Somalis are known for their herding lifestyles and have long-practiced the tradition of pastoral nomadism. However, as a land with a semi-arid climate and an environment frequently affected by droughts, this lifestyle is tough. Many have to compete for the scarcity of resources, sometimes in order to survive, which leads to conflict rooted in something other than politics.

Regardless of the root cause; whether political, ethnic related clan-clashes, disputes over land, resource scarcity, poverty and hunger due to droughts, tension abounds and conflict results.

A bad marriage

The two issues at hand are conflict and drought. They will first be briefly discussed separately, and thereafter, the effect and influence they have on each other will be considered.

- Conflict

Somalia has endured violence for over two decades. As a result of all the years of instability, the country has drastically deteriorated economically, politically and socially. Tension has flared up repeatedly. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in a recent report: “The humanitarian situation is dire. Violence continues to rage.”⁽⁴⁾ In recent weeks, fighting has again flared up between the TFG and the Islamic militant Al-Shabaab, resulting in thousands of Somalis being displaced from their homes and forcing many to flee the borders, crossing into Kenya. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), because of recent fighting in Mogadishu 4,400 people were displaced in nine days.⁽⁵⁾

The main reasons for the upsurge include the dissatisfaction of rebels towards recent TFG decisions. The transitional period that was supposed to end in August 2011, as originally mandated, has been extended for an additional three years by the Transitional Federal Parliament, without consultation with the opposition.⁽⁶⁾ During the transition period, between 2004 and 2011, the Transitional Federal Institutions were supposed to set up a new constitution and election procedure which would see the country holding a general election by the end of the transition, August 2011. Electoral or constitutional procedures have yet to be enforced.⁽⁷⁾ This unilateral move, failing to carry out necessary reforms has caused great dissatisfaction among many Somalis; inciting reasons to object in ways they deem fit. Fighting between the TFG and the Al-Shabaab rebels continues throughout much of the country.

The UN Security Council said it had hoped the Transitional Federal Government would have practiced in a more transparent manner that it would “promote broader political dialogue and participation.”⁽⁸⁾ The Security Council urged the Transitional Federal Institutions to “refrain from any further unilateral action.”⁽⁹⁾

The conflict is stretching the area. Rebel groups are said to have gained control of much of the land, especially the south and parts of Mogadishu, the country’s capital.⁽¹⁰⁾ Fighting in the southern Belet Xaawo area has driven thousands from their homes. Some 5,500 residents of the Kenyan border town of Mandera have reportedly been displaced, while a flare-up of conflict in Mogadishu has displaced 4,400 people in the last nine days, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).⁽¹¹⁾ Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Valerie Amos visited Somalia in February 2011 and stressed concern over accounts from Mandera, indicating both TFG and Al-Shabaab forces were gearing towards possible confrontation.⁽¹²⁾

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called for urgent international support. AMISOM (the AU’s peace-keeping mission in Somalia) and TFG are struggling to gain control as Al-Shabaab continues to control much of the land. Ban said more resources such as helicopters and surveillance equipment were needed in order for the military efforts of the TFG and AMISOM to be more successful.⁽¹³⁾ The Security Council also called on the international community to make urgent contributions to the UN Trust Fund in order to assist AMISOM in the shortfall of troops.⁽¹⁴⁾ Help is needed to restore basic needs and rights that have been abused during this time of conflict.

- Drought

The prolonged droughts in the country are adding to the tension and instability among the people of Somalia and are another reason for displacement across severely affected parts of the country. The relentless droughts are deteriorating living standards and making a sustainable means of income almost impossible. People are resorting to extreme measures to survive the effects of the drought, such as selling their homes and land.⁽¹⁵⁾ According to the latest country-wide food security assessment, an estimated 2.4 million people in Somalia are in “Humanitarian Emergency and Acute Food and Livelihoods Crisis.” This means 32% of the total population are in need of humanitarian assistance or livelihood at least until June 2011. The increase is due to poor Deyr rains, civil insecurity and displacement.⁽¹⁶⁾

Central regions of Somalia, especially, have endured eight consecutive seasons below average rainfall. Somalia’s capacity to withstand such extremes for much longer is limited. More worrying, Somalia is currently in its dry season, Jilaal, which is known for its harsh conditions.⁽¹⁷⁾

The droughts, and the slow international response to the situation in Somalia, have the potential to lead to both a natural and human disaster. As the weeks go by, more people are being internally displaced as water and food supplies rapidly decrease and reports of malnourished children escalate, above emergency levels.⁽¹⁸⁾ Evidently, the United Nations Independent Expert on the situation of human rights in Somalia, Shamsul Bari, said the drought response is not meeting the needs of those affected in terms of access to food, clean drinking water, nutrition and health.⁽¹⁹⁾

Populations affected by droughts are seeking assistance closer to urban areas; however, these areas are prone to greater political fighting. Thus, the move presents increased risks.⁽²⁰⁾ People are moving further, even across borders. Waves of refugees continue to cross the border into Kenya, adding to the already 430,000 Somalis who have previously fled the country as a result of conflict.⁽²¹⁾ Amos expressed her concern and warned that the sub-region's drought was threatening food security in northern and eastern Kenya as well as in large parts of Somalia.⁽²²⁾

Ban Ki-moon cited reports that these droughts had displaced some 50,000 people during the past two months.⁽²³⁾ In the central region of Hiraan, 70% of the population is in crisis and food has not been distributed there since the UN World Food Programme (WFP) was forced to suspend its operations there in January 2010 because of fighting.⁽²⁴⁾ Ban added that this year’s humanitarian appeal for Somalia seeks US$ 529 million for urgent needs. However, as of last month, only one quarter of that amount had been funded.⁽²⁵⁾

Effects of drought

Prolonged droughts lead to health issues becoming an area of concern. These issues are likely to be compounded in a country that is lacking financial backing. Health issues are more prevalent during due to people being malnourished and their immunity remaining low. Diarrhoeal diseases such as dysentery, and skin diseases such as measles, are all risks in areas that are under acute water shortages. Outbreaks of cholera and polio are also probable and have been reported.⁽²⁶⁾

Furthermore, consecutive droughts also have drastic effects on water systems, such as aquifers for underground systems and ground water systems which break down due to the lack of water. The drying up of dams, rivers, streams and ponds means that the walking distance to fetch water increases extensively in rural areas.⁽²⁷⁾

How conflict and drought affect and influence each other

Although conflict cannot affect climate changes and bring rain, it can affect agricultural production due to land disputes. The effects of a natural disaster such as a drought are many – from environmental, to social, developmental and even political. It can therefore be argued that there is a definitive link between conflict and drought.

In a study on International Peace Studies at the University of Notre Damme, Meedan Mekonnen wrote a paper, “Drought, Famine, and Conflict: Case from the Horn of Africa”, in which the notion of drought as a cause of conflict is discussed.⁽²⁸⁾ Mekonnen explains that when drought occurs in semi-arid to arid areas, such as Somalia, living conditions become very difficult. Somalis, who are largely pastoralists as mentioned earlier in the report, are dependent on their livestock as a source of income and sustenance. Pastoralists move across areas in search of usable pasture land and water for their livestock. During difficult environmental times, pastoralists’ movements are forced to increase. Clashes arise as different pastoral groups move towards the same areas where limited resources may still be found.⁽²⁹⁾

In Somalia, political disputes are often powered by people’s demands for basics needs and human rights to be met, prolonged droughts further increase the likelihood of tension. A country embedded in political conflict is primarily preoccupied with gaining political power. “Shifting scarce resources to the military budget always weakens critical development needs of a country. When the government's full attention is on the conflict; they cannot pursue drought-relief, social, or development programs.”⁽³⁰⁾ Separately droughts and conflict can create tense situations but as can be seen from the above discussion droughts can further compound the negative effects of conflict.

What is being done?

Efforts at local level to curb the conflict are on-going. The TFG is working closely with the AU’s AMISOM. AMISOM increased its troop numbers from 8,000 to 12,000 this year. However, troops are still limited for the required work of protecting civilians and opposing Al-Shabaab.⁽³¹⁾ Regarding the transition period of the country, the UN joined forces with African organisations to set up the Joint Regional Strategy in February, hoping to find structure in the yet defined constitutional and electoral formats. The parties involved were the UN Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS), the African Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). The Strategy aims to find a common approach to political, security, humanitarian, institutional and financial issues and challenges facing the peace process in Somalia.⁽³²⁾

At the beginning of March, the World Food Programme (WFP) began an emergency food distribution programme in Mogadishu because of the serious implications of the drought and the influx of people into the capital. “The WFP is doing all we can to feed the hungry – especially women and children - who have been forced from their homes by a combination of drought and conflict,” said Stefano Porretti, WFP Somalia Country Director. “They are caught in the middle, squeezed on all sides, and need our support.”⁽³³⁾ According to this report, the WFP needs an estimated US$ 46 million to feed the 1.2 million Somalis in need of assistance for the next six months. The WFP has already reduced their rations because of a shortage of funds.

The United Nations Security Council has been active during the recent upsurge of conflict in Somalia, speaking out against the human rights violations and the lack of peace and security in the country. In March, it adopted resolution 1972 (2011) which condemned the politicisation of humanitarian aid and the violation of peace and security. The resolution also emphasised the importance of humanitarian aid and the obligation to ensure international humanitarian law in Somalia.⁽³⁴⁾

Conclusion

The reports on Somalia, whether on conflict or drought, are clear – the country is in a humanitarian crisis. The pleas from those affected are for an urgent political resolution to be sought. The country needs to start replenishing itself. Somalis have lived for too long without order and governance. It is time for the transitional period to pass. Despite all that is being done Somalia is still in desperate need of help that will lift them from their fighting, hardship, hunger and pain. Firstly, political stability needs to be ensured so that Somalia is able to appropriately respond to natural disasters such as drought.

NOTES:

(1) Contact Louise de Bruin through Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Enviro Africa Unit (enviro.africa@consultancyafrica.com).
(2) ‘Report of the Somalia Commission of Inquiry’, http://www.dnd.ca.
(3) Ibid.
(4) ‘Somalia: Security Council calls on world to step up supplies for African peace force’, 10 March 2011, http://www.un.org.
(5) ‘Somalia: top UN aid official voices alarm at intensified fighting, worsening drought’, 4 March 2011, http://www.un.org.
(6) ‘Somalia: Security Council calls on world to step up supplies for African peace force’, 10 March 2011, http://www.un.org.
(7) Ibid.
(8) ‘Somalia: Security Council calls on world to step up supplies for African peace force’, 10 March 2011, http://www.un.org.
(9) ‘Statement by the President of the Security Council’, 10 March 2011, http://www.un.org.
(10) ‘Somalia: Security Council calls on world to step up supplies for African peace force’, 10 March 2011, http://www.un.org.
(11) ‘Somalia: top UN aid official voices alarm at intensified fighting, worsening drought’, 4 March 2011, http://www.un.org.
(12) Ibid.
(13) ‘Somalia: Security Council calls on world to step up supplies for African peace force’, 10 March 2011, http://www.un.org.
(14) Ibid.
(15) ‘UN: Drought Ravages Somalia and Kenya’, 18 February 2011, http://www.scoop.co.nz.
(16) ‘Somalia, on the brink of a humanitarian disaster – UN Independent Expert’, 2 March 2011, http://www.ohchr.org.
(17) Ibid.
(18) ‘UN official warns of humanitarian disaster as drought ravages Somalia and Kenya’, 17 February 2011, http://www.un.org.
(19) ‘Somalia, on the brink of a humanitarian disaster – UN Independent Expert’, 2 March 2011, http://www.ohchr.org.
(20) Ibid.
(21) ‘Kenya: Fresh Wave of Somali Refugees Flee’, 20 February 2011, http://allafrica.com.
(22) Ibid.
(23) ‘Somalia: Security Council calls on world to step up supplies for African peace force’, 10 March 2011, http://www.un.org.
(24) Ibid.
(25) Ibid.
(26) ‘Kenya Drought Emergency Appeal’, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 17 September 2009, http://www.kenyaredcross.org.
(27) Ibid.
(28) Meedan Mekonnen, ‘Drought, Famine, and Conflict: Case from the Horn of Africa’, Joan B. Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame, September 2006, http://www.beyondintractability.org.
(29) Ibid.
(30) Ibid.
(31) ‘Somalia: Security Council calls on world to step up supplies for African peace force’, 10 March 2011, http://www.un.org.
(32) ‘UN And African Partners Adopt Joint Strategy On Somalia Crisis’, 23 February 2011, http://www.scoop.co.nz.
(33) ‘WFP Steps Up Response To Somalia Drought With New Food Distributions In Mogadishu’, 8 March 2011, http://www.wfp.org.
(34) United Nations Security Council resolution 1972 (2011), http://www.un.org.

Written by Louise de Bruin ⁽¹⁾