The year 2011 was the year of the Arab awakening, marked by protests, violence, rebellion and widespread call for democratic reforms. This call for civil liberties and political rights is believed to have been catalysed by the self-immolation of a Tunisian man, Mohammed Bouazizi, who set himself alight in protest of being ill-treated by the police.⁽²⁾ What is significant about the Arab awakening, commonly referred to as the Arab Spring, is that it saw the overthrowing of the governments of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.⁽³⁾ In Egypt, the Arab Spring was embodied in a massive protest at Tahrir Square, which became known as “the 18 days.” When the 18 days protest finally came to an end, it was with the achieved aim of the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak, who had been ruling Egypt for 30 years.⁽⁴⁾ The ousting of Mubarak was only the beginning, as Egyptians continued to protest for democratic reform and elections. From November 2011 to January 2012, Egypt held its first Parliamentary elections in three phases, a historic moment for the country.

At the end of the polls, the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), which is the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, won the majority of seats, followed closely by the Salafist Al-Nour Party.⁽⁵⁾ This paper examines the implications of the much publicised Islamist win in the Parliamentary elections and how this may be a big loss for many of the protesters who are in fact secular democrats. The paper will commence by providing a brief background on Egypt’s political climate, after which the details of the recent elections will be examined. Next, the implications for Egypt’s democratisation process will be analysed and the possibilities for Egypt’s future assessed.

An unfinished revolution? The political climate in Egypt after the ousting of Mubarak

When President Mubarak resigned there were many Egyptians who were of the opinion that Egypt had at long last gained a chance to emerge from three decades of political stagnation.⁽⁶⁾ The fact that Egypt was ruled by President Mubarak for such a long time, however, bodes ill for anyone who may think that a country can be democratised overnight. The Egyptian people are looking for democratic reform because they are dissatisfied with the lack of free speech and elections, police brutality, emergency laws, high rates of unemployment coupled with low wages and inflation.⁽⁷⁾ The very issues that fuelled the rage of the protesters are symptomatic of non-democratic regimes, and are not eradicated by the ousting of a president.

It was this thirst for reform that united a diverse Egypt in the early days of protest. Citizens of all age groups, both secular and Islamist, stood together because more than anything they wanted change in their way of life. However, this unity shattered after the Maspero riots. Initially, these were Coptic riots against the state media, but they quickly morphed into a deadly clash between Copts and Muslims.⁽⁸⁾ The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) were involved in controlling the protests at Maspero. The protestors accused the SCAF of using live ammunition, while the SCAF in turn accused the protestors of using live ammunition on the military.⁽⁹⁾ All this was unfortunate for the protesters as it destroyed the belief held up to the point of the Maspero riots that the military was in fact protecting them. It was sobering to find out that the military may in fact delay the democratic reforms for which they were so desperate.⁽¹⁰⁾ After Maspero, the military lost much of its popularity among the people. The spirit of unity and hope which had been the driving force of the Tahrir protests diminished in light of the emerging reality that even though Mubarak was ousted, the regime was not necessarily ousted with him and that the military was now the new obstacle to democratic reform. As a result of these developments in the run up to the elections, the protests at Tahrir became increasingly violent and problematic for both the SCAF and the Egyptian people.

Enthusiastic voter participation and minimal anomalies characterise Egypt’s first post-Mubarak elections

Prior to the commencement of the Parliamentary elections, there was yet another massive protest in Tahrir square in which the protesters called for the removal of the military regime before elections were to take place. Many of the protesters developed a fear that as the SCAF oversaw the transition to civilian rule after they took over from former President Mubarak, they may be tempted to cling to power.⁽¹¹⁾ Simultaneously, there were protests that encouraged the elections to go ahead even with SCAF overseeing them. The latter were largely supported by those in favour of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB).⁽¹²⁾ This is a telling development, suggesting that there are people who believe that the MB can indeed run Egypt. It also means there are those who fear that the MB will not be able to control the SCAF, or rather that the SCAF would be able to control the MB. Despite the fears of continued suppression and violence against people protesting for democracy, there was an enthusiastic spirit among the voters, and as the elections commenced, people waited patiently to cast their votes. The general celebratory atmosphere that characterised the vote could be explained by the fact that this was the first time Egyptians had a chance to democratically elect their own government.⁽¹³⁾ Voter turn-out reached 62% in the first phase of the elections.⁽¹⁴⁾

The Parliamentary elections marked the first time that Egypt allowed international non-governmental organisations (INGO) to observe elections in the country.⁽¹⁵⁾ The International Republican Institute (IRI) was one such INGO. The IRI found that the first phase of the Parliamentary elections experienced logistical problems such as the late arrival of ballot papers, which created a need for extended voting hours. The IRI also noticed that the contending parties were breaking Egypt’s electoral rules by continuing to campaign less than 48 hours before voting stations opened. Although the IRI recommended that Egypt’s Higher Electoral Commission (HEC) improve upon these anomalies, in general, they praised Egypt for taking the first step towards entrenching free and fair elections.⁽¹⁶⁾

In general, what was seen during these elections is what was to be expected. A country that has no culture or history of having free and fair competitive elections can by no means be expected to organise problem-free elections the very first time. There is no denying that there were certain undesirable elements present, however, the election period concluded with no major uprising, conflict or loss of life, something for which Egypt deserve to be praised.

Islamists take control of the new Egyptian Parliament

The initial election results, which gave the lead to the FJP, disappointed the liberal activists who protested for the ousting of Mubarak.⁽¹⁷⁾ There were concerns voiced by some pro-democracy activists that, if elected, hard-line Islamists could push for an Islamic state.⁽¹⁸⁾ This applied especially to the Al-Nour Party, which follows a very strict interpretation of the Koran and has been quite transparent about its agenda to impose Islamic law similar to its application in Saudi-Arabia. If the Al-Nour party had won, freedom of speech and expression and women’s freedoms may have become restricted.⁽¹⁹⁾ The FJP on the other hand, which was banned under Mubarak, has established a reputation for itself as a provider of services for the poor. This reputation goes far in explaining the current popularity of the FJP. In the final results the FJP won 47% of the seats in Parliament, while the Al-Nour Party got 24% and was followed by the New Wafd and the Egyptian Bloc coming third and fourth.⁽²⁰⁾

Outcome of elections put Egypt’s democracy at a crossroad

At this point, the FJP will have the greatest influence in Parliament. And, given what Egypt has gone through in the past few months, the FJP is more likely to uphold the political rights and civil liberties for which so many protests were held. Democracy could hardly flourish in a context that favours the strictest interpretation of Islamic law because the very essence of democracy is participation of a politically enabled civil society. However, although the FJP have not indicated that they would follow such strict interpretations, this has done little to allay the concerns of secular liberals who are particularly worried about the potential influence of the hard-line Al-Nour Party.

Currently, Egypt is in the hands of the SCAF, which has promised to hand over power to an elected civilian President by July 2012.⁽²¹⁾ The world will have to wait until that time to see if the head of the SCAF, Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, will keep this promise. It is of vital importance that the FJP, who will play a leading role in writing Egypt’s constitution, writes a strong and coherent document which must be backed up by a cohesive Parliament. The writing of such a constitution will not necessarily prevent the military from undermining the newly elected Parliament, but having legally accepted documents which stipulate exactly who is in power is the first step to prevent such undermining.

The idea of democratisation has widespread support in Egypt, although with a lot of caution. The people of Egypt know what they have under SCAF, but no one seems to be sure of what would follow after the elections.⁽²²⁾ Free and fair democratic elections ensure that a popular government is elected, but one thing it cannot ensure is that the elected government is willing to work on establishing democratic ideals in the country. What most Egyptians desire after such a violent and unpredictable 2011 is stability and a government that would start working towards building credible state institutions and providing basic services. There are, however, concerns that this priority could be overshadowed by the political bickering and manoeuvring of the country’s political factions, including the military. In addition to a possible struggle between so-called Islamists and secular forces represented in Egypt’s Parliament, there is equally a real possibility of a serious friction between the dominant FJP and the SCAF. It is postulated that while the latter is willing to concede the control of Parliament to the Muslim Brotherhood, it may want to do everything in its power to have a civilian president who will preserve the privileges and influence of the military in the Egyptian polity.

Concluding remarks

One year after the ousting of Hosni Mubarak following popular protests in Egypt, there seems to be a sense of dissatisfaction among Egyptians with the way the events have unfolded. In addition to concerns over the continued influence of the military in Egypt’s political life, the victory of the Muslim Brotherhood in the first ever democratic Parliamentary elections in Egypt has generated fear and discontent among secular Egyptians. The latter are worried that the popular uprisings have been hijacked by forces whose ideologies run contrary to the goals of the protests, that is, respect for political and individual freedoms, as well as the promotion of social justice. Thus, although the recently concluded elections mark a significant step in the struggle for democracy in Egypt, their real value would depend on the extent to which the different political forces in Egypt are willing to constrain their parochial ambitions and yield to the demands of the people.

NOTES:

(1) Contact Naomi Kok through Consultancy Africa Intelligence's Election Reflection Unit (election.reflection@consultancyafrica.com).
(2) Tunisia one year on: A new trend of self- immolations’, BBC News Africa, 12 January 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(3) Billingsey, A.Y., ‘Writing constitutions in the wake of the Arab Spring: The challenge of consolidating democracy’, Foreign Affairs, 30 November 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com.
(4) Kirkpatrick, D.D., ‘Egypt erupts in jubilation as Mubarak steps down’, New York Times, 11 February 2011, http://www.nytimes.com.
(5) Fadel, L., ‘Islamists secure lead in Egypt’s Parliamentary elections’, Washington Post, 8 January 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com.
(6) Kirkpatrick, D.D., ‘Egypt erupts in jubilation as Mubarak steps down’, New York Times, 11 February 2011, http://www.nytimes.com.
(7) CIA: The world factbook website, http://www.cia.gov.
(8) ‘Egypt’s recent violence in context’, STRATFOR, 20 December 2011, http://www.stratfor.com.
(9) Ibid.
(10) Ibid.
(11) Doucet, L.,‘Egypt protests: Mass rally in Cairo ahead of election’, BBC News Middle East, 25 November 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(12) Ibid.
(13) ‘Polls close after first day of Egyptian elections’, CNN, 28 November 2011, http://www.cnn.com.
(14) Jensen, J., ‘Egypt election had 62% voter turnout’, Global Post, 2 December 2011, http://www.globalpost.com.
(15) Historic election in Egypt starts with high voter enthusiasm’, The International Republican Institute, 2 December 2011, http://www.iri.org.
(16) Ibid.
(17) ‘Egypt election results show Islamists are winning’, The Telegraph, 13 January 2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk.
(18) Ibid.
(19) Ibid.
(20) The SCAF’s way forward’, STRATFOR, 24 November 2011, http://www.stratfor.com.
(21) Ibid.
(22)‘Egypt and the idealist-realist debate in U.S. foreign policy’, STRATFOR, 6 December 2011, http://www.stratfor.com.

Written by Naomi Kok ⁽¹⁾