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er coup-maker and curren Chadian President Idriss Deby has a
penchant for authoritarian rule, and when his country's oil starts
oozing to market today, observers say he will finally have the cash
to match his regional ambitions.
"Idriss Deby is setting himself up as the boss of central
Africa.
He already had the military power, and with the oil he's now got
the economic power," a high-ranking official from one of the six
Central African Monetary and Economic Community (Cemac) countries
said in the Gabonese capital recently.
"A new state of diplomatic affairs is shaping up and that means
political tension in the region," he continued.
Oil from the Doba basin in southern Chad is expected to flow for 25
years, and is hoped to provide annual revenues of $80-million,
increasing government revenues by half, according to the World
Bank.
These revenues are theoretically watched over by a commission of
government, legislative and civil society representatives.
But it is thought that few of the landlocked desert country's
population of 10-million, where per capita income is well under a
dollar a day, will see any of the benefits of the newfound oil
wealth.
Things are also looking up in neighbouring Central Afican Republic
(CAR), which after years of acrimony between N'Djamena and the
previous pro-Libyan regime, is now run by a Chadian ally, General
Francois Bozize.
The CAR has in recent months become something of a testing ground
for Deby's ambitions.
Long-suspected of supporting Bozize's initially unpromising
rebellion, in February Deby launched a diplomatic broadside at his
then opposite number in Bangui, Ange-Felix Patasse, saying "There
is a regime problem".
Less than a month later, and against all expectations, Bozize
entered Bangui triumphant on March 15.
When looters subsequently ran riot in the capital, Bozize called
N'Djamena for help.
Several hundred well-trained and equipped Chadian troops arrived on
the scene with surprising rapidity, and reestablished order.
Observers in Chad have noted that high-ranking Central African
exiles returning from France after Bozize's coup thanked Deby for
his intervention before returning home. Previously they would have
had Libreville to thank.
Gabon had previously "looked after" the CAR for France since French
troops withdrew in 1997, according to a Libreville-based
diplomat.
Ever since Bozize came to power, Deby's people are everywhere in
the CAR: at the presidential palace, in the army, in the
intelligence services and in business.
Their omnipresence has even irked locals, who hitherto lived
harmoniously with a large Chadian community.
But changes in the region rarely happen overnight.
With an army estimated at 30 000 men by the International Insitutue
of Strategic Studies, Chad was already the region's major military
power.
Thirty years of civil war have only sharpened the traditional
warrior qualities of some ethnic groups in Chad that contribute
greatly to the strengths of the army.
And while Deby may have traded in his military uniform for civilian
dress, he remains a soldier at heart.
Despite 13 years in power and two presidential elections, the
Chadian regime "remains a military power in many respects,”
according to a diplomat.
The authorities' continued use of arbitrary detention and torture
has been criticised by human rights organisation Amnesty
International. - Sapa-AFP.