Chad and Sudan have recently started warming up to each other despite having previously fallen out over alleged support for rebels aiming at destabilizing each other's territory. However, the recent clashes between the Chadian army and rebels in the eastern region of the country reminds one that not much has changed in Chad since the last rebel invasion in early 2009. The latest clash between the country's forces and rebels comes as the Chadian government continues to pressurise the United Nations to wind down its number of peacekeepers from a full strength mission of over 5 000 to 1 900 ahead of the country's legislative elections in November this year and a presidential poll in 2011.

In the latest rebel attacks, the government forces have had to contend with the little known but heavily armed Popular Front for National Resistance (FPRN) rebels. This altercation, said to have claimed over 100 rebels and nine soldiers, is likely to revive the long-standing tensions that were ebbing away between Chad and Sudan. This new insurgency has come at the wrong time for president Idriss Déby's government for a number of reasons.

Firstly because the relationship between N'djamena and Khartoum was just starting to warm up following the talks president Déby held with president Omar Hassan al-Bashir in Khartoum in February this year, and which led to the signing of a protocol by both sides. The protocol states in part that neither country would host or support rebel forces from the other side and that existing insurgents would be encouraged to join electoral or political processes in their respective countries. The parties also agreed on a joint project to develop Sudan and Chad`s common border, which would include joint military patrols on either side of the border and the removal of rebel troops which they have influence over, from near the frontier. Depending on how Chad may look at it, the FPRN attacks provide a challenge to the new camaraderie between the two countries.

Secondly, the FPRN attacks coincide with the start of the winding down of the UN peacekeeping operations in Chad - a process strongly supported by the Chadian government but heavily criticised by the opposition parties and the UN head of peacekeeping operations Alain Leroy.

In February this year Leroy called on the UN Security Council to ensure that Minurcat (the UN Peacekeeping force in the Central African Republic and Chad) was maintained with their full complement, because of its important role in maintaining safety and security of the people in the camps, the civilians in general and for the humanitarian operations - an aspect that the UN humanitarian chief also concurred with. The violence in the western Sudanese region of Darfur and the cross-border fighting between Chad and Sudan has in recent years led to several thousands of people fleeing to refugee camps in eastern Chad.

The Chadian elections have been always been befallen by trepidations. In June 2005, president Déby organised a referendum that entailed the removal of the presidential term limits from the country's constitution thereby making him eligible for a third term. Initially, the elections were due in April 2006, but because of what was said to be lack of sufficient funds, elections were postponed by a year to April 2007. Consequently, an outbreak of a civil war in the east of the country led to the postponement of the elections again. A chain of events that followed led to the signing of an agreement between president Déby's Patriotic Salvation Movement (MPS) and most opposition parties. The agreement involved electoral reforms that, upon completion, would yield to a parliamentary election in November 2010, followed by a Presidential one in 2011. From the foregoing trend, there is every reason for the opposition parties in Chad to be concerned about the sincerity of president Déby's commitment to the political transformation in Chad.

The latest insurgency could therefore be a warning to president Déby against a possible gerrymandering of forthcoming elections. In this case, Déby knows well that the absence of a strong UN mission in the country may give him leverage in manipulating the electoral process. He also knows that in order to survive another potential political turmoil/insurgency, including the forthcoming elections, he definitely needs the support of his long time foe-turned-friend (of convenience), president Omar al-Bashir. This could be one of the reasons that president Déby was quick in congratulating al-Bashir on an election he termed "brilliant," adding that the result would improve ties between the two countries. Indeed, Déby knows that when his turn comes (possibly next year) he will definitely need a friend to recognise his "achievement," and such a friend cannot be better than one's immediate neighbour. It is therefore no wonder that Déby has extended an invitation to al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes in Darfur, to visit N`Djamena, soon. It is clear, however that this time round Déby may have to confront either the ballot box or a new insurgency that may be harder to surmount than the previous ones.

Written by: Nelson Alusala, Senior Researcher, Arms Management Programme (Pretoria)