Water is a crucial driver of the South African and world economy and, with demand exceeding supply globally, the World Economic Forum has ranked water as the third-most worrying global risk. As a consequence, water preservation – ranging from water recycling and infrastructure to innovation and policy – is being discussed across various economies and industry subsectors.

South Africa’s National Water Resource Strategy Phase II (NWRS2), which has drawn its data from the NWRS1, published in 2004, calculates total water withdrawal in the country at 12.87 km3/y in 2004 against an exploitable yield of 13.23 km³/y.

However, in his research paper on the emerging water crisis in South Africa published last year, Institute for Security Studies researcher Steve Hedden states that, since 2004, water demand has increased and this has led to overexploitation of the resource at national level. It is estimated that South Africa currently withdraws 15.6 km³/y of water.

Hedden points out that the agriculture sector is the largest water user, accounting for 57%, or 8.9 km³, of water use, with municipal demand accounting for 35%, or 5.5 km³, and the industrial sector 8%, or 1.2 km³.

Water use is expected to increase across all sectors, owing to a growing manufacturing sector and an increasing number of thermoelectric power plants, which will increase the industrial sector’s water demand.

This is as a result of the National Development Plan (NDP) for electricity anticipating the need to build an extra 40 GW of electricity-generating capacity by 2030, most of which will be thermoelectrically generated. This will result in an increase from 1.2 km³/y to 3 km³/y by 2030. However, renewable energy is expected to grow strongly in the energy mix in the early 2030s, which will cause industrial water demand to decrease to 2.8 km³/y by 2035.

However, government has identified agriculture as a key driver of food security, job creation and social capital in rural communities through the NDP, which indicates a planned increase in land under irrigation of 33% by 2030.

Consequently, Hedden says, the NWRS2 plans to increase land under irrigation by 50%, as opposed to government’s target of 33%, suggesting that there will be an increase in demand for water in the agriculture sector from 8.9 km³/y to 9.7 km3/y by 2035.

“The largest increase in water demand by 2035 will be from the municipal sector, as it is forecast to increase from 5.5 km3/y to 7.2 km³/y by 2035,” he warns – an increase that can be attributed to increasing rural-urban migration and increasing income levels.

Further highlighting the current fragile state of water in South Africa, University of the Free State professor and water expert Dr Anthony Turton notes that the current total rainfall for South Africa is 48-billion cubic metres a year, with 38-billion cubic metres available in dams. But water demand is expected to reach 63-billion cubic metres a year by 2035, which is forecast to be more than what the country can supply.

Foreseeing a potential business risk, owing to the continuous increase in water demand, global risk consultancy firm Control Risk Southern Africa region account manager Rivaj Parbhu indicated at a recent Gordon Institute of Business Science (Gibs) Forum that businesses needed to plan now for future water scarcity.

“Businesses need to take water scarcity very seriously, as this will affect operations and the manufacturing sector,” he said, adding that government would also have to regulate water to solve the crisis – a change for which businesses should be prepared.

Possible Interventions
Turton pointed out during same forum that, although a water crisis was emerging in South Africa, solutions could be deployed to mitigate the crisis.

“With many of the water catchment areas ruined by mining, the country would have to start recycling all its water if it is to survive this crisis. This would mean that water would need to be recycled 1.6 times by 2035 to have enough water for the country,” he said.

Embracing the need to recycle water, the NWRS2 has set water-reuse targets for several water management areas, which aims to reuse more than a 0.25 km³/y of wastewater by 2035.

However, Turton said this amount was not enough and stated that all the water in South Africa had to be recycled. He added that, alternatively, clean water should be supplied to households and used for drinking, and untreated water to the industrial sectors. Turton said this would ensure a cost-effective and efficient way of using water.

Meanwhile, the NWRS2 also aims to increase the use of desalinated water by at least 0.15 km³/y by 2035 in at least three water management areas.

With government having realised that 36.8% of water withdrawal is being lost through water leaks – referred to as nonrevenue water – in municipalities, interventions, such as the War on Water Leaks project, were launched earlier this year to reduce water loss. According to President Jacob Zuma, water loss has cost the country R7-billion a year.

South African black-owned consulting engineering firm Gibb integrated infrastructure senior associate Jacques Laubscher said at the Gibs Forum that, in order to decrease water loss, it was necessary for industry and government to know whether the leaks were caused by limitations in resources or infrastructure capacity.

Laubscher told Engineering News in August that water management and water systems were complex and required high-level skills and a sustained political environment from government structures to be effective.

“Many smaller municipalities do not have access to skilled water professionals or they leave for better remuneration elsewhere. However, many of the water-quality and management challenges at these small municipalities are a direct result of a lack of access to skills and a lack of understanding of the demands of water management,” he noted.

Consequently, the War on Water Leaks project intervention by government plans to train 15 000 artisans or plumbers nationally from 2015 to 2017 to reduce nonrevenue water losses.

Additionally, during her 2015 Budget Vote speech, in May, Water and Sanitation Affairs Minister Nomvula Mokonyane said there was a need for a “water and sanitation revolution” to “reclaim and better manage our water”. The ‘revolution’ will be carried out through water conservation and demand management, improving the water mix and transformation.

She indicated that water conservation and demand management would involve innovation and regulation to reclaim the water through initiatives that had been developed and were available for use. Improving the water mix would involve the increased use of a variety of water sources – in addition to the country’s current reliance on surface water – while transformation of the sector involved improving access to water resources.

Policy Effectiveness
Hedden states that current policy – which is the NWRS2 – is not adequate to address the water constraints in South Africa.

“Even if policies that will close the demand-supply gap by 2035 are put in place now, South Africa will continue to overexploit water for the next 20 years.”

He says this overexploitation increases the vulnerability of the water system to factors such as drought and will be aggravated by the impact of climate change.

Therefore, he notes that any attempt to reconcile this gap must include policies to reduce demand, increase supply, improve efficiency and create the necessary incentives for the transition to a recycling economy in which water of different qualities and prices is used for different purposes.

As an intervention, Mokonyane indicated in her speech that the department was prioritising the review and implementation of the NWRS2, where subprogrammes, such as the National Integrated Water Information System, would aim to improve decision-making on policy and prioritising public access to water.

South African banker Absa Capital public–private partnership (PPP) financing specialist Andre Kruger expressed confidence in South Africa’s regulatory system at the Gibs Forum, adding that the increasing involvement of more private organisations in managing basic resources such as water would help mitigate the water crisis.

He cited the Strategic Water Partners Network South Africa as an example of a PPP initiative that was launched to address the lack of private-sector participation. Its objective is to help close South Africa’s projected water gap by 2030 through collaboration and partnership projects that have a strategic national impact.

“With more PPPs emerging in the sector, there is an opportunity for the crisis to be managed, while economic growth is also supported through the jobs that can be created as a result of such partnerships,” Kruger concluded.