The morning of 9 January 2011 dawned in Southern Sudan to the sound of celebration. Street parades, dance groups and processions of Southern Sudanese marched through the streets of every major town. T-shirts and banners declared slogans ranging from ‘Say no to violence’ to ‘Bye bye Khartoum’ and ‘Vote for Separation to become first class citizens in your own country.’⁽²⁾

Six weeks to count the results followed a full week of voting, with preliminary results announced at the end of January and the declaration of final results in early February 2011. In the interim period, the world watched as fears of violence and the outbreak of conflict went unfounded. Election monitors confirmed that the referendum had taken place peacefully. On 7 February 2011, the official results were released: Southern Sudan has voted for independence. Africa’s youngest country is born.

South Sudan votes for secession paving the way for peace

Between 9 and 15 January 2011, approximately 4 million Southern Sudanese cast their ballots at polling stations around the world in a self-determination referendum.⁽³⁾ The referendum was to decide whether the predominantly Christian and ethnically distinct South of Sudan was to form a separate country, independent of the North lead by the Khartoum Government. The referendum for secession or unity was one of the terms of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) reached in 2005 and was seen by many Southern Sudanese as their first real chance at self-determination.

Preliminary results announced in Juba at the end of January showing almost 99% in favour of secession. This was later confirmed when the final results were announced in Khartoum on 7 February, with both the Northern President Omar al-Bashir and President of Southern Sudan Salva Kiir in attendance. An overwhelming 98.83% had voted for secession.⁽⁴⁾ Despite outbreaks of violence along the border – in Abyei and other regions – the referendum took place peacefully and was declared fair and free by the international observer missions comprised of representatives from the Carter Centre, the African Union (AU), the Arab League, and the European Union (EU).

The implications of secession and the challenges to state-building

Over the six months following the referendum, the new state of Southern Sudan will be working its way towards independent self-governance – the creation of a state fought for and denied for decades. Southern Sudan cannot formally declare independence before 9 July 2011 due to the terms of the CPA. While the euphoria of secession may still be felt, the reality of the challenge ahead is slowly sinking in. With growing insecurity and some of the world’s worst humanitarian indicators, the new state of Southern Sudan faces the long, complicated process of building a nation.

There was little doubt that secession would be the outcome of the referendum and the euphoria that has accompanied the vote comes as no surprise.⁽⁵⁾ However, the path to nation building is a complex one. The promises that have been made are as numerous as the challenges that face the emerging country. Whilst most want a sustainable peace in the region and improved standards of living,⁽⁶⁾ some of the key terms of secession are still under negotiation. Beyond border demarcation, the issue of Abyei, the distribution of oil revenue and other wealth sharing, sit the additional logistical complexities of splitting one country into two. Sudan’s debt, for example, totals an estimated US$ 35.7 billion.⁽⁷⁾

The question of how this debt will be divided between the North and South is not clear. Whilst it has been suggested that the North should assume the majority of the debt as a gesture of goodwill, others, aware that the debt is more likely to be wiped for the South than for the North, suggest that the South should take the burden of debt which would have a positive impact on both countries. Sudan has previously qualified for the World Bank’s Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) initiative, the criteria for which are complex and strict. What will happen now that it is two countries? The issue of aid is also central to the debate. How will donors who have previously given aid to Sudan as a whole, now divide their aid budgets between two countries?

Continued regional unrest and the road ahead

The international community welcomed the referendum results, with the UN Security Council commending the leadership shown by the North and the South as signatories to the CPA.⁽⁸⁾ This was accompanied by a stark reminder that secession is merely the beginning of the long road to independence. Southern Sudan has some of the worst humanitarian indicators in the world and faces significant and complex security threats. These threats further undermine development initiatives, as access to basic services, building of infrastructure, and other development activities are compromised by ongoing internal conflict. Whilst the South has made significant progress since the end of the civil war in 2005, continued support from the international community is crucial if the considerable humanitarian and security needs are to be met. Many assume that with the peaceful referendum achieved, the greatest threat of renewed North-South conflict has passed. The threat of conflict between the North and South, however, must not overshadow the very real danger of conflict and violence within the South itself.

While violent clashes kicked off along the border areas during the referendum, conflict has continued irrespective of political events in the southern state of Western Equatoria as a result of the Lords Resistance Army (LRA). The LRA continue to be a force for instability and insecurity across the wider region and in Sudan. Approximately 87,800 Southern Sudanese fled their homes as a result of LRA attacks between 2008 and the end of 2010.⁽⁹⁾ The situation in Darfur also remains unresolved and adds to the violent instability across the region.

The issues of economic and social development continue to be intractable. Insecurity hinders development, whilst the lack of a healthy economic and social infrastructure contributes to instability and insecurity. Southern Sudan has some of the worst humanitarian indicators in the world. Figures broadly suggest that just 20% of the population have access to basic services, with 86% of all primary healthcare being provided by NGOs.⁽¹⁰⁾ The young Southern Sudan will be in need of significant financial and technical support for years to come. The role NGOs play in the state-building process is therefore likely to be a key focus in global policy dialogue around Southern Sudan. The balance between replacing capacity and facilitating it, however, is a fine one. With the capacity of the GOSS at stretching point, there are concerns from the aid world that the level of assistance required of them in tackling the humanitarian indicators may blur the line between responsibility and delivery. Others would suggest this line was crossed years ago.

The Abyei referendum, which was intended to be run in parallel with the South Sudan referendum has also been delayed indefinitely with the National Congress Party (NCP) of the North and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) of the South at a deadlock over the criteria for who can and cannot vote. The NCP insists that the nomadic Misseriya people, who migrate from the North into the Abyei region annually with the rains, should be included in the referendum. The SPLA on the other hand, insist that only the Ngok Dinka from the South and who are permanently resident in Abyei, should be allowed to vote. In the early weeks of February, the Government of Sudan (GOS) and the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) have shown renewed commitment to resolving the Abyei issue. However, the issue is complex and Abyei remains a sticking point in peaceful negotiations, and a continuing threat to peaceful secession for the newly created Southern Sudan.

Concluding remarks

With the very real and daunting challenges of insecurity and development facing the new Southern Sudan, it is unlikely that the euphoria surrounding secession will last for long. Despite this, the national optimism inspired by independence in the South is crucial in ensuring that Southerners own the development of their new state. It is important however, that Southern Sudan is assisted in harnessing the energy of secession, and supported with technical and financial support to build the new state from within. The emphasis should be on local solutions to governance and development as there can be little doubt of the political will of Southerners eager to relish the taste of self-determination. However, there will be significant pressure on the new nation to declare independence on 9 July 2011 with a state-building strategy and measures already in place to address the many challenges that its stability will inevitably face.

NOTES:

(1) Contact Hannah-May Stevenson through Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Election Reflection unit (election.reflection@consultancyafrica.com)
(2) Author’s photographic evidence 9 January 2011.
(3) ‘Nearly 4 million Sudanese to vote for independence’, Reuters, 2 January 2011, http://www.reuters.com.
(4) BBC ‘South Sudan backs independence – results’, 7 February 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(5) ‘South Sudan backs independence – results’, BBC, 7 February 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(6) ‘Kiir urges southerners to focus on national building’, Relief Web, 8 February 2011, http://www.reliefweb.int.
(7) ‘Sudan asks UK for help on debt relief’ Sudan Tribune, 5 September 2010, http://www.sudantribune.com.
(8) ‘Security Council Press Statement on Sudan’, United Nations Security Council, 9 Feb 2011, http://www.reliefweb.int.
(9) ‘Joint NGO Briefing Paper ‘Ghosts of Christmas Past’, Oxfam, 14 December 2010, http://www.oxfam.org.
(10) World Vision UK, ‘Sudan Referendum: A Child’s Future’, 20 Jan 2011, http://www.worldvision.org.uk.

Written by Hannah-May Stevenson ⁽¹⁾