The pre-election section of this month’s African Election Review examines three upcoming presidential elections. The first of these is the much-discussed presidential election in Nigeria, which has been postponed due to delays in the parliamentary election, and is now set to take place on 16 April. The presidential election in Madagascar, due to be held on 4 May, and the postponed presidential election in Chad, re-scheduled for 8 May, are also discussed.

In the post-election section, the first election under examination is the presidential election in Djibouti, which was held on 8 April and resulted in the re-election of incumbent President Guelleh. The presidential election in Benin, which took place on 13 March and saw the re-election of President Yayi Boni, is also discussed.

Pre-election

Nigeria – Presidential election (postponed)

A presidential election was set to be held in Nigeria on 9 April, following a parliamentary election scheduled for 2 April. However, delays of the parliamentary election mean that the presidential election has had to be postponed until 16 April.

The official reasons for the postponement of the parliamentary election were logistical. In particular, the absence of voting materials from many polling stations meant that the elections could not continue. Before the postponement was announced, people had already begun queuing up at some polling centres and others had even cast their votes. The unilateral decision taken by the electoral commission was not well received, especially by opposition parties. However, others welcomed the decision, saying that similar problems had occurred during the 2007 elections but that the results had still been declared, even in areas where no voting had taken place. In the long-run, it is hoped that the delay will help avert fraud, which may have lead to unrest in the country.

• Main candidates

Muhammadu Buhari was nominated by the Congress for Progressive Change and is considered a favourite to win. Goodluck Jonathan has also declared his intention to run for the presidency and must be seen as a key contender. Anti-corruption campaigner Nuhu Ribadu is the third major candidate. Other candidates include Ibrahim Babangiba a former General and military ruler, and Atiku Abubakar, a former Vice President. Patrick Utomi is a candidate for the Social Democratic Mega Party.

• Election concerns and/or issues

o The election is already surrounded by controversy in relation to the standing of both Northern and Southern candidates;
o Current interim President Jonathan took over following the death of Yar’Adua;
o Jonathan (a Southerner) is now intending to run as a presidential candidate;
o The rotating presidency is due to go to a Northerner;
o The 2007 elections lacked credibility and the vacuum created by Yar’Adua’s illness and subsequent death shook the country;
o The 2011 elections are hoped to signal the end of a tumultuous period in Nigerian political history;
o The postponement is the latest part of the controversy surrounding the election;
o The parliamentary election was held on 9 April and the presidential election is now set for 16 April.

Madagascar – Presidential election

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Madagascar on 4 May 2011. The election forms part of a timetable aimed at bringing an end to the political crisis that has gripped the country since former President Marc Ravalomanana was forced to resign under military pressure in February 2009. Elections are central to the resolution of the political crisis but both the presidential and parliamentary elections have already been postponed on numerous occasions. Most recently, parliamentary elections which were scheduled for 16 March were postponed due to problems with electoral lists. It is not yet clear whether such problems will also impact on the presidential elections.

The election follows a constitutional referendum held on 18 November 2010 which saw the lowering of the minimum age of presidential candidates from 40 to 35 years, enabling the 36-year-old interim President Andry Rajoelina to run for office.

• Main candidates

The main candidate in the Malagasy presidential election is interim president Andry Rajoelina, who has led the country since 2009 when former President Ravalomanana was forced from power. Despite having consistently said he would not stand for the presidency, the constitutional amendment in 2010 that saw the lowering of the minimum age for presidential candidates from 40 to 35 years, is seen as a clear sign that 36-year old Rajoelina intends to run. Former Presidents March Ravalomanana and Didier Ratsiraka, as well as opposition leader Albert Zafty, are also potential candidates, although they have not yet officially announced their candidacy and have previously expressed this dissatisfaction with the transitional process.

• Election Issues and/or concerns

o Madagascar has been in political turmoil since March 2009;
o Rajoelina was installed as the interim President by the military;
o Constitutional amendments were passed by a referendum in November 2010;
o Both parliamentary and presidential elections have now been postponed numerous times;
o Ravalomanana and Rajoelina have been involved in mediation talks;
o Rajoelina appears to be defying the conclusions and suggestions made as part of the mediation process and is going ahead with the election at a time not agreed upon by the opposition;
o The presidential election is now seen as a key test of the will of Rajoelina and his commitment to the democratic process.

Chad – Presidential election (postponed)

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Chad on 8 May. The presidential election – originally set for 3 April – has already been delayed once. A second round run-off is now set to be held on 5 June if no candidate receives an outright majority.

The postponed presidential election also follows a delay in the parliamentary election which was held on 28 February due to shortcomings in financial and human resources. The delay of the presidential election is due to a proposed boycott by members of the opposition who have demanded amendments to the electoral process. The opposition boycotted the 2006 election and in order to try and ensure a more smooth election this time around, the national electoral commission (CENI) announced an official postponement of the poll. Since Deby seized power in 1990, the results of Chad’s elections have been consistently disputed by opposition parties and civil organisations. There is a chance of political violence and rebel activity in the capital Ndjamena and elsewhere during the polling.

• Main candidates

The main candidates in the election are current President Idriss Deby who has ruled the country since 1990 and represents the ruling Patriotic Salvation Movement. Deby’s ruling party and those allied with it won the 2011 parliamentary election. Saleh Kebzabo, the candidate for the National Union for Democracy and Renewal, the main opposition party, and Kamougued Wadal Abdelkader, the leader of the Democratic Union for Renewal, are also contenders for the presidency

• Election Issues and/or concerns

o The presidential election was originally set to take place on 3 April;
o The delay to the election is due to a move by members of the opposition to boycott the election unless certain conditions are met;
o The conditions are mainly related to the form and standard of voters’ cards, voting slips and the security and transport of the electoral material;
o Idriss Deby’s ruling party gained a majority in the February parliamentary elections;
o Deby is standing for re-election and is one of the favourites;
o Deby removed the term limits for the presidency in 2005, allowing him to stand for another term;
o Chad is one of the poorest countries in Africa, suffering from poverty and internal conflict despite abundant resources of uranium and gold;
o There is a risk that political violence in the capital may threaten the polling process.

Post-election

Benin – Presidential election

Election outcome: The presidential election held in Benin on 13 March was won by Thomas Yayi Boni who has been elected to serve a second term in office.

Election result: Yayi Boni received 53.13%, Adrien Houngbédji received 35.64%

The presidential election in Benin, initially scheduled to take place on 27 February, took place on 13 March. The postponement was called for following problems with a new electronic voter registration system in the lead up to the election. Insufficient voter materials were reported and there were also complaints that the election observers had not been sufficiently trained. The opposition called for a postponement of the election in order to complete the voter registration process - a move which was suported by the United Nations (UN) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in order to ensure that the electoral process was credible.

With Yayi Boni being re-elected to serve a second term in office, opposition leader Adrien Houngbedji refused to concede and called for a challenge of the results before the Constitutional Court. The Court rejected the challenge leaving an atmosphere of tension before the parliamentary elections which are due to take place on 17 April.

• Election issues and/or concerns

o The ballot was initially sheduled for 27 February but was postponed due to problems with electronic voter registration;
o A number of international orgnisations supported the postponement in an attempt to safeguard the democratic process;
o Thomas Yayi Boni received 53.13%, winning the election outright;
o Members of the opposition contested his victory, bringing a challenge before the Consitutional Court;
o Yayi Boni was re-elected to serve a second 5-year term;
o The Court rejected the challenge but opposition candiadte Houngbedji refused to concede;
o There is an apprehensive atmosphere ahead of the parliamentary election scheduled for 17 April.

Djibouti – Presidential election

Election outcome: Omar Guelleh was re-elected as the President of Djibouti in the poll on 8 April 2011.

Election result: Guelleh received 79.26% of the votes whilst independent candidate Mohamed Warsame Ragueh received 20.74%.

A presidential election took place in Djibouti on 8 April 2011. The President is elected by an absolute majority vote through a two-round system to serve a 6-year term. Ismail Omar Guelleh was re-elected to serve a second term in power.

President Ismail Omar Guelleh has been in power in Djibouti since 1999. He was re-elected in April 2005, as the head of a five-party coalition. A number of opposition parties boycotted the 2005 election, meaning that Guelleh ran unopposed. Protests in early 2011 called for President Guelleh – whose family has ruled the country since its independence from France in 1977 – to step down ahead of the elections. His re-election was seen by many as a foregone conclusion.

• Election issues and/or concerns

o Djibouti is a small but a strategically important country at the mouth of the Red Sea;
o It is a crucial point for international shipping and a potential point of interaction for Al-Qaeda forces moving between Somali and Yemin;
o Its port serves as a transit point for goods leaving and entering landlocked Ethiopia;
o Djibouti hosts the only U.S army base in Africa;
o The 2011 election is only the third election since independence in 1977;
o Incumbent President Guelleh ran unopposed in 2005;
o The first few months of 2011 saw anti-Government protests;
o Members of the opposition saw Guelleh’s re-election as a foregone conclusion;
o Guelleh was re-elected to serve a third term, having received 79.26% of the votes.

NOTES:

(1) Contact Hannah Gibson through Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Election Reflection Unit (election.reflection@consultancyafrica.com).

Written by Hannah Gibson ⁽¹⁾