Pre-election | Benin; Djibouti; Madagascar; Nigeria

Post-election | Chad; Uganda

The pre-election section of this month’s African Election Review examines four forthcoming African elections. First, the paper explores Benin’s postponed presidential election which is now scheduled to take place on 13 March. Presidential elections which are set to take place in Djibouti on 8 April and which are, in contrast to the 2006 election, expected to feature more than one candidate, are then examined. Third, the presidential election scheduled to take place in Nigeria on 9 April is discussed. With controversy surrounding the announcement of the candidacy of interim President Goodluck Jonathan, these elections are expected to be fiercely contested. Parliamentary elections which are set to take place in Madagascar on 13 April are also examined. After more than 18-months of political crisis, much rests on the elections in Madagascar and many hope that they can bring an end to the turmoil in the country.

The post-election section of this month’s CAI African Election Review looks at the presidential election which took place in Uganda on 18 February 2011. Despite receiving increasing criticism, long-serving President Yoweri Museveni won by a landslide victory and was re-elected to serve his fourth term. The post-election section also examines the first round of parliamentary elections in Chad which were held on 20 February.

Pre-election

Benin – Presidential election (postponed)

The presidential election in Benin, which was scheduled to take place on 27 February, has been postponed until 13 March.

Thomas Yayi Boni has been President of Benin since he took up office following the last general election in 2006. Since gaining independence from France in 1960, Benin has experienced numerous changes of Government. In 1990, amidst pressures to democratise, which were sweeping across Africa, the Government of Mathieu Kérékou introduced a democratic constitution for the first time. Nicéphore Soglo won the first presidential election in 1990 and the current President Yayi Boni has been in power since 2006. The current elections have been postponed due to problems with voter registration. Sufficient voting materials have also not been printed and election observers have not been sufficiently trained. The postponement has been backed by the United Nations, the African Union and the Economic Community of West African States which support the delay in order to allow time to ensure that the electoral process is credible.

• Main candidates

A former Director of the West African Development Bank, current President Yayi Boni who has served for one year is considered the favourite to win. Other candidates include former Prime Minister Adrien Houngbedji of the Democratic Renewal Party (PRD), the first woman to run for president and veteran opposition candidate Marie-Elise Gbedo. As a former Member of Parliament, Janvier Yahoudéou has close links to the ruling party, Prudent Tokpanou is a former Minister of Justice and Tchalla Késsilé is a former Minister of Health. Other candidates include Agossa Irenaeus and Abdoulaye Bio Tchane.

• Election Issues and/or concerns

o A number of parties and associations have formed a broad coalition to support the candidacy of Abdoulaye Bio Tchané;
o In the past Boni’s campaign focused predominantly on the economy and reforming the cotton sector – a major export;
o Boni comes from one of the country’s most influential ethnic group;
o Despite minor irregularities, the last two sets of elections held in Benin were deemed free and fair;
o The current elections are expected to take place peacefully;
o Incumbent President Boni is a favourite to win;
o Concerns were voiced over inadequate voter registrations, insufficient voter materials and inadequate election observer training;
o Members of the opposition asked for a postponement;
o The postponement was granted by the Electoral Commission;
o The election is now set to take place on 13 March 2011.

Djibouti – Presidential election

A presidential election is set to take place in Djibouti on 8 April 2011. The President is elected by an absolute majority vote through a two-round system to serve a 6-year term.

Current President Ismail Omar Guelleh was re-elected to serve a second 6-year term in April 2005, as the head of a five-party coalition. A number of opposition parties boycotted the 2005 election and Guelleh ran unopposed. Political power is currently shared by the Somali ethnic group the Issa – to whom the President belongs – and the Afar ethnic group – to which the Prime Minister belongs. Other Cabinet posts are roughly divided. Some Djiboutians feel that the Issa are over-represented in Government, civil service and the ruling party. This has led to resentment and continued political tension between ethnic groups. Protests in early 2011 called for President Guelleh – whose family has ruled the country since its independence from France in 1977 – to step down ahead of the elections.

• Main candidates

The main candidate is incumbent President Ismail Omar Guelleh who has held the post since 1999 and is seeking re-election to serve for a third term. Guelleh is only Djibouti’s second ruler since independence and was responsible for bringing insurgents into a unity Government a decade ago, ending years of violence in the country. In the current elections Abdourahman Boreh, the former chairman of Djibouti’s ports, announced he will challenge President Guelleh. Boreh pledges to improve the standard of living and prevent ‘serious civil unrest’.

• Election issues and/or concerns

o Djibouti is a small but a strategically important country at the mouth of the Red Sea;
o It is a crucial point for international shipping and a potential point of interaction for Al-Qaeda forces moving between Somali and Yemin;
o Its port serves as a transit point for goods leaving and entering landlocked Ethiopia;
o Djibouti hosts the only U.S army base in Africa;
o The 2011 election is the third election since independence in 1977;
o Incumbent President Guelleh ran unopposed in 2005;
o The first few months of 2011 saw anti-Government protests;
o Guelleh’s perceived lack of tolerance of the peaceful protests is likelty to impact on his popularity ahead of the elections.

Nigeria – Presidential election (first round)

The first round of presidential elections in Nigeria is scheduled to take place on 9 April 2011. The election takes place amongst controversy as to whether a Northerner or Southerner should become President.

Umaru Yar’Adua was President of Nigeria from April 2007 until his death, due to ill-health, in 2010. Following Yar’Adua’s death, Goodluck Jonathan took over as interim President. Whilst Yar’Adua was a Muslim from the predominantly Muslim North of the country, Jonathan is a Christian and from the South. The controversy surrounding the 2011 elections arises from the tradition of rotating the Presidential office between the regions. Power rotates every two terms which means that this election should have candidates from the North. The fact that Jonathan intends to run in the upcoming election is therefore considered controversial. Nonetheless, the elections are hoped to indicate a turning point in the Nigerian political sphere. The 2007 elections were generally regarded as lacking credibility, and the country was plunged into near crisis in 2009 when President Umaru Yar’Adua fell ill and left the country for several months.

• Main candidates

Muhammadu Buhari was nominated by the Congress for Progressive Change and is considered a favourite to win. Goodluck Jonathan has also declared his intention to run for the presidency. Anti-corruption campaigner Nuhu Ribadu is seen as the third major candidate. Other candidates include Ibrahim Babangiba a former General and military ruler, and Atiku Abubakar, a former Vice President. Patrick Utomi is a candidate for the Social Democratic Mega Party.

• Election Issues and/or concerns

o The election is surrounded by controversy in relation to the standing of both Northern and Southern candidates;
o Current interim President Jonathan took over following the death of Yar’Adua;
o Jonathan (a Southerner) is now intending to run as a presidential candidate;
o The rotating presidency is due to go to a Northerner;
o The 2007 elections lacked credibility and the vacuum created by Yar’Adua’s illness and subsequent death shook the country;
o The 2011 elections are hoped to signal the end of a tumultuous period in Nigerian political history.

Madagascar – Parliamentary election

A parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in Madagascar on 13 April 2011. The election follows a constitutional referendum which was held on 18 November 2010 and is hoped to be the next stage in the return to constitutional rule.

The election forms part of a timetable aimed at brining an end to the political crisis that has gripped the country since former President Marc Ravalomanana was forced to resign under military pressure in February 2009. Elections are central to the resolution of the political crisis. However, if the parliamentary election goes ahead in the current climate it risks being seen as a unilateral move by the current President, Andry Rajoelina, in defiance of ongoing mediation by regional leaders. However, if the elections are postponed again, the political crisis is likely to deepen further.

• Election Issues and/or concerns

o Madagascar has been in political turmoil since March 2009;
o Rajoelina was installed as the interim President by the military;
o Constitutional amendments were passed by a referendum in November 2010;
o Both parliamentary and presidential elections have now been postponed numerous times;
o Ravalomanana and Rajoelina have been involved in mediation talks;
o Rajoelina appears to be defying the conclusions and suggestions made as part of the mediation process and is going ahead with the election at a time not agreed upon by the opposition;
o The parliamentary election is a crucial test for democracy in Madagascar and the process of political transition.

Post-election

Uganda – Presidential election

Election outcome: Yoweri Museveni received 68% of votes and was re-elected to serve a fourth term.

Election results: Museveni received 68.33% whilst the closest candidate, Kizza Besiye, gained just 26.01% of the votes. Other candidates were Norbet Mao 1.86%, Olara Otunna 1.58%, Beti Jamya 0.66%, Abed Bwanika 0.65%, Jaberi Bidandi Ssali 0.44% and Samuel Lubega 0.41%.

A Presidential election was held in Uganda on 18 February 2011. Yoweri Museveni, who has now ruled Uganda for more than 25 years, won in a landslide victory amidst complaints of misconduct and fraud from members of the opposition and contested results. This was the third time the Yoweri Museveni and the opposition candidate with the strongest following – Kizza Besigye – have gone head-to-head as presidential candidates. Although Museveni’s popularity had decreased in the previous three elections, this election saw a sharp increase in his popularity.

• Election commentary

o Museveni’s popularity had been slowly decreasing in the previous three elections;
o However, his 68% in 2011 is an improvement on the 57% in the 2006 elections;
o The result represents a reversal of the trend in his declining victory margins and raises questions over the fairness of the election;
o Museveni’s absolute majority of 68% removes the need for a second round run-off;
o It has been alleged that potential uprising and protests following the announcement of the election results were quashed by disruption of communication networks by the Government;
o Besigye protested the results (as he also did in 2006), claiming they were achieved by fraudulent means;
o Voter turnout has been 70% in the last three elections;
o Apathy among opposition voters who do not consider the elections to be fair may have played a role;
o 59% of registered voters cast their ballot in these election;
o Museveni is now the longest standing leader in Africa and shows no sign of retiring.

Chad – Parliamentary election

Election outcome: President Idriss Deby and the Patriotic Salvation Movement won an absolute majority in the elections for the National Assembly.

Election results: The Patriotic Salvation Movement and the aligned parties took 133 of the 188 seats.

Parliamentary elections took place in Chad on 20 February 2011. Originally scheduled for 28 November 2010, these elections were postponed due to shortcomings in financial and human resources. These were the first parliamentary elections in eight years. Deby first came to power in 1990 in a coup. In the 2002 polls, Deby’s MPs won nearly three-quarters of the seats in the previous poll in 2002, the results of which were disputed by opposition parties and civil organisations. The presidential poll in 2006 was boycotted by opposition parties. Deby’s party and those allied with it took 133 of the 188 seats available in the 2011 election. The National Union for Democracy and Renewal headed by Saleh Kebzabo emerged as the biggest opposition grouping with 11 seats.

• Election commentary

o MPs aligned with Deby won nearly three-quarters of the seats in the poll in 2002, the results of which were disputed by opposition parties and civil organisations;
o In the 2011 election, voters faced a choice between Deby’s MPs and a fragmented and under-funded opposition of more than 100 tiny parties;
o Voter turnout was 56.6%;
o 16 of the parties won at least one seat;
o The National Union for Democracy and Renewal headed by Saleh Kebzabo emerged as the biggest opposition grouping with 11 seats;
o Chad is one of the poorest countries in Africa, suffering from poverty and internal conflict despite abundant resources of uranium and gold.

NOTES:

(1) Contact Hannah Gibson through Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Election Reflection Unit (election.reflection@consultancyafrica.com).

Written by Hannah Gibson ⁽¹⁾