Africa is particularly susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change because about 95% of agricultural activities,⁽²⁾ on which an estimated 70-80% of the continent’s population thrives,⁽³⁾ depend on rainfall. Besides this, Africa hosts some of the world’s poorest nations. These nations’ populations are growing quickly – more than 60% of the world’s population growth between 2008 and 2100 will be in sub-Saharan Africa⁽⁴⁾ – and natural resources are being lost through environmental degradation and the increased pressures of a burgeoning population.⁽⁵⁾ Rapid climate change is therefore a significant threat to the already fragile state of food security on the continent.

This paper examines some of the potential consequences of changing climatic conditions on food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It investigates projections across the region and further examines how changes in climatic conditions such as changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, prevalence of floods, droughts etc. will impact various aspects of food security (food availability, accessibility-physical and economic, utilisation and food systems stability) across the region.

Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and projections

Climate change refers to a significant and persistent change in the distribution of weather patterns over an extended period which may typically last decades or longer. It is now a global phenomenon directly influencing various aspects of human existence through such events as higher temperatures, droughts, shifts in areas suitable for crop production, floods, soil erosion, sea level rises, and rainfall variation. Much uncertainty exists about the direct impact of climate change in Africa. Nevertheless, the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts decreasing rainfall in northern and southern Africa, increasing rainfall over the highlands of Ethiopia and East Africa, and a considerable increase in the frequency of floods and drought.⁽⁶⁾

Some climate change models agree that the northern and southern Africa regions are likely to become much hotter, as much as 4°C or more, over the next 100 years.⁽⁷⁾ These regions will also become much drier with precipitation falling by 15% or more over the next century. The exceptions are in East Africa, including the Horn of Africa; where average rainfall will increase.⁽⁸⁾ Over much of the rest of Africa (including the Sahel) there is considerable uncertainty as to how rainfall will evolve.⁽⁹⁾The high temperatures projected will potentially fall beyond the range of tolerance of many of the current crop varieties and cultivars. In addition, about three quarters of African countries are zones where small reductions in rainfall could cause large declines in overall water availability.⁽¹⁰⁾These have serious implications for the performance of agriculture and therefore food security on the continent.

Food security in sub-Saharan Africa

To be food secure is to have a reliable source of food and or sufficient resources to purchase it as and when needed. By the definition of the World Food Summit of 1996, “Food security, at the individual, household, national, regional and global levels is achieved when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.”⁽¹¹⁾ In SSA, average caloric intake barely exceeds the daily requirement of 2,100 kilocalories (kcal) which is by far the lowest in the world, making sub-Saharan Africa the world’s most food-insecure region.⁽¹²⁾ The state of food security in the region is highly dependent on the agricultural sector; but this sector has been characterised by high variability in production over the years. The production of food, especially cereals, roots, and tubers which play a central role in food supply on the continent have generally lagged behind the rate of population growth.⁽¹³⁾

While sufficient production remains a challenge, access – physicaland economic – byhouseholds to sufficient safe and nutritious food is undermined by a high level of poverty, limited access to off-farm employment, sluggish development in urban areas, skewed income distribution and the inability of countries to generate the resources required to import food. Also, as a result of poor transport and market infrastructure, food either does not reach those who need it most or reaches them at excessively high prices.⁽¹⁴⁾ For households, stability of food supplies refers to their ability to procure, through income, production and/or transfers, adequate food supplies on a continuing basis, even when the household is faced with situations of unpredictable stress, shocks or crises. Such situations could include crop failure resulting from drought, market fluctuations such as sudden price rises, the decline or loss of employment and loss of productive capacity because of sudden illness. It also denotes the ability to stabilise food supplies through seasonal fluctuations of production or income, and a household's ability to cope with or minimise the extent and duration of the effects of food deficits.If projected increases in weather variability materialise, they are likely to lead to disruptions in the stability of food supply systems in SSA; and potential increases in the frequency and magnitude of food emergencies for which neither the global food system nor affected local food systems are adequately prepared.⁽¹⁵⁾

Causal relationship between climate change and food security

Climate change influences food security mainly through agriculture productivity because most of Africa depends on rain-fed agriculture which is also susceptible to climatic variability. All four dimensions of food security, most importantly food availability, are influenced by climate change. The climate affects food production and by extension food security, directly through changes in agro-ecological conditions and indirectly by affecting growth and distribution of incomes, and thus access to agricultural produce.⁽¹⁶⁾ Approximately 80% of people in SSA continue to depend on the agricultural sector for their livelihoods.⁽¹⁷⁾ Based on projections, it appears that in many parts of SSA, warmer climates and changes in precipitation will destabilise agricultural production. This will particularly affect the poor and marginalised who have limited options to withstand shocks and changes. Because more that 95% of agricultural activities in sub-Saharan Africa depends on rainfall, the threat of climate change is particularly urgent.

The area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, are expected to decrease.⁽¹⁸⁾ Variable rainfall could potentially reduce the chances of a second crop in some areas and even the viability of a single one in others.⁽¹⁹⁾ Maintaining the continuity of food supply when production is seasonal will continue to be challenging. Droughts and floods both of which are expected to become more frequent, more intense and less predictable as a consequence of climate change, will pose a particular threat to food stability and could bring about both chronic and transitory food insecurity. In rural areas, changes in the amount and timing of rainfall within the season and an increase in weather variability are likely to aggravate the precariousness of local food systems.⁽²⁰⁾

A change in climatic conditions through increased temperatures or unstable, moist weather conditions could result in moisture-related storage problems and food safety issues especially in SSA where post-harvest infrastructure is weak. This could further lead to a rise in food prices if traders have to invest in new storage technologies to avoid post-harvest losses.⁽²¹⁾ Climate change will likely cause new patterns of pests and diseases to emerge, affecting plants, animals and humans, and posing new risks for food security, food safety and human health. Increased incidences of water-borne diseases in flood-prone areas, changes in vectors – carriers – for climate-responsive pests and diseases, and emergence of new diseases could affect both the food chain and people’s physiological capacity to obtain necessary nutrients from the foods consumed.⁽²²⁾

For the most part, countries in the tropics and subtropical zones, mostly developing economies, are expected to lose in terms of agricultural production; whereas countries in temperate zones, mostly developed economies, are expected to gain. Many of these developing countries are already dependent on the production and exports of agricultural goods. Climate change will therefore cause considerable losses of growth and export opportunities.⁽²³⁾

Concluding remarks

Smallholder farmers are the ones bearing most of the burden of climate change. Although they have learnt over the centuries to adjust to environmental change and climate variability, the current speed and intensity of climate change are outpacing their capacity to adapt. Crop failures and livestock deaths are causing economic losses, raising food prices and undermining food security with ever-greater frequency, especially in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, demand for food is increasing as populations grow and dietary habits change.⁽²⁴⁾

There is general agreement that the climate in sub-Saharan Africa will change more considerably than the global average. However, there is hardly any agreement on the seasonal and regional distribution of these changes.⁽²⁵⁾ With increased exposure to drought, floods and other environmental stresses in the region, whose economies already depend heavily on climate-sensitive sectors – agriculture,pastoralism, fisheries and forestry – theimpact of climate change has the potential to stall socio-economic progress targeted at cutting down extreme poverty, hunger, health problems, illiteracy, and malnutrition. Climate change could also undo years of national development efforts and put at risk livelihood support systems linked to these sectors. A more variable climate will make it harder for the poor to climb out and stay out of poverty and food insecurity. Because Africa is a very diverse continent, any statement on the potential impact of climate change can hardly be applicable to the entire continent.⁽²⁶⁾ Local specifics are uncertain – precipitation may both increase and decrease significantly in almost all regions and seasons. This makes the likelihood of severe changes too risky to ignore. Adaptation to climate variability and change is critical to sustaining and furthering development gains in virtually all developing countries and will become more urgent in the next decades.⁽²⁷⁾

NOTES:

(1)Contact Joy Afenyo through Consultancy Africa Intelligence's Africa Enviro Africa Unit (enviro.africa@consultancyafrica.com).
(2) ‘The AU/NEPAD African action plan 2010‐2015: Advancing regional and continental integration in Africa’, NEPAD, 17 October 2009,
(3) ‘Rationale: The challenges of African agricultural research and development’, Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa, 2007,
http://www.fara-africa.org.
(4)‘Water in a changing world’, The United Nations World Water Development Report 3, 9 July 2009, http://www.unesco.org.
(5) Clements, R., ‘The economic cost of climate change in Africa’, November 2009, Pan African Climate Justice Alliance, http://www.christianaid.org.uk.
(6) Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, ‘Fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): Africa 2007’, 2007, http://www.ipcc.ch
(7) Conway, G., ‘The science of climate change in Africa: Impacts and adaptation’, Imperial College London, Grantham Institute for climate change, Discussion Paper No. 1, London, October 2009.
(8) Ibid.
(9) Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, ‘Fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Regional climate projections, 2007, http://www.ipcc.ch
(10)‘Climate change and Africa’, Africa Partnership Forum Support Unit, Briefing Paper No.1., September 2007, http://www.oecd.org.
(11) ‘Declaration on world food security and World Food Summit plan of action – 1996 World Food Summit’, UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, Rome, 1996.
(12) ‘State of food insecurity in the world 2009’, UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, Rome, 2009.
(13) ‘Food security and agricultural development in Sub- Saharan Africa: Building a case for more public support’, Policy Brief No. 1, UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, Rome, 2006.
(14) Ibid.
(15) ‘Climate Change: A framework document’, UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, 2008, ftp://ftp.fao.org.
(16) Ludi, E., ‘Climate change, water and food security’, Overseas Development Institute, March 2009, http://www.odi.org.uk.
(17) ‘Africa review report on agriculture and rural development’, UN Economic and Social Council, Addis Ababa, 2007.
(18)‘Africa Partnership Forum’, 8TH Meeting of the APF, Berlin, 2007, http://www.africapartnershipforum.org
(19)Conway, G., ‘The science of climate change in Africa: Impacts and adaptation’, Imperial College London, Grantham Institute for climate change, Discussion Paper No. 1, London, October 2009.
(20) ‘Climate change: A framework document’, UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, 2008, ftp://ftp.fao.org.
(21) Ibid.
(22) Ibid.
(23) ‘Climate change and developing country agriculture: An overview of expected impacts -Adaptation and mitigation challenges and funding requirements’, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, Issue Brief No. 2, Geneva, 2009.
(24) International Fund for Agricultural Development website, http://www.ifad.org.
(25)Muller C., 2009, Climate change impact on sub-Saharan Africa - An overview of scenarios and models, UNU Press: Bonn.
(26) ‘Disasters, climate change, and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons and future directions’, IEG World Bank Group, Washington, 2010.
(27)‘Development and climate change: A strategic framework for the World Bank Group’, The World Bank, Technical report, 2008, http://siteresources.worldbank.org.

Written by Joy Selasi Afenyo ⁽¹⁾