As South Africa commences its long anticipated national and provincial elections, political commentators and analysts aren’t agreeing on possible outcomes. The most contested and debated topics are the possibility of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) emerging as the official opposition or whether with Cyril Ramaphosa’s promise of a new dawn, post the Jacob Zuma years, the ruling party will retain its two-thirds majority.

Indisputedly, South Africa’s sixth democratic election is the most unpredictable since 1994. Various events occurring within the country’s political landscape could be contributing to analysts wrestling with predictions. Some of these events include: Zuma’s resignation in 2018; Ramphosa’s transition term in which he has sought to restore government accountability and economic healing; the 2016 local governance elections in which the African National Congress (ANC) suffered a severe loss including forfeiting key metros like Johannesburg and Tshwane.

However, there is unanimity on the ANC strongly retaining its pre-eminence. This is anchored in how post Zuma’s resignation, the party strategically elected Ramaphosa to begin a campaign which would publicly seek to disassociate the party from what has been termed ‘the Zuma years.’ On the other hand, the possibility of the EFF becoming the main opposition results from its position on the land question and the disgruntlement of the youth in terms of unemployment.

The ANC’s selling points are a leadership that is acknowledging its shortcomings during the Zuma years and the signalling of a willingness to compensate its loyal supporter base by addressing corruption and maladministration. However, Zuma’s arbitrariness in the conduct of government affairs, such as reshuffling the cabinet overnight, gave the party’s supporters the impression that the party is characterized by empty promises and has compromised its core values.

Zuma’s resignation in 2018 evidently ushered in a new political epoch for the country, in such a way that most, if not all, opposition parties had to return to their drawing boards. What added to the urgency to change their ‘Zuma, ANC and corruption are synonymous’ political strategies was the election of Ramaphosa, whose campaign was based on addressing corruption. He strategically emphasized that at some point during Zuma’s reign the ANC neglected or abandon the core values that once illuminated it post-1994. The current ANC leader speaks of responsive government and ensuring that South Africa becomes an attractive investment destination. The new leadership of the party appears to have a zero tolerance towards corruption, as it is willing to ensure that fellow cadres face shameful commissions and forensic reports. The ideal is to “return to or restore our most fundamental principles”. Thus, a number of people that had been disgruntled by what the ANC did during Zuma’s reign, could vote in favour of the ANC, thus once again reinforcing that the current political landscape is characterised by a “single party dominance culture”.

Additionally, the ANC has managed to diplomatically communicate its position regarding the land issue with the support of the EFF and used its majority status in parliament, playing a role in the constitutional amendments on the issue. It is for these reasons, among others, that in these elections, there could be an increase in the ANC’s fortunes, turning around the previous dip in support. The promises of good governance, zero tolerance to corruption and economic growth that Ramaphosa is articulating seem to be appealing to a number of loyal ANC supporters, including the 3.25% that was lost in 2014.

Arguments that the ANC will witness another decrease considering that in 2014 it had 62.15% and in 2009 it had 65.90%, are misguided because they are grounded on the outcomes of the local elections. The 2016 local elections do reveal that urban populations, in particular in provinces such as Gauteng, were dissatisfied with the ruling party, specifically in terms of issues such as service delivery. There is a wider consensus among a number of political scholars that South Africa’s voting patterns in local and national elections are not the same. Ordinary South African’s choices in each election are based on a variety of motivations and these impetuses could intersect or overlap but they are not the same because of the historical past of oppression, marginalisation, segregation and exploitation.

An analysis that only considers the outcomes of the 2016 local government elections fails to appreciate historical context in terms of voting patterns.  Regardless of Zuma’s scandals in his first term (2009 – 2014), it managed to maintain 60%+. It will be unlikely that the ruling party will receive anything less than 60%+ and there is a possibility of an increase with the returning voters who had lost confidence in the party’s leadership during Zuma’s terms.

In 2014, the Democratic Alliance (DA) witnessed a 5.63 percentage point increase from 16.66% in 2009 to 22.23%. This upcoming election the party will witness a possible 3-5% loss. The reason for this prediction is because of the breakaway of Patricia De Lille from the DA, unearthing some of the racial issues that the party has been trying hard to conceal for so many years. The breakaway by a number of the senior leadership demonstrated that there have always been racial and ideological disagreements within the party’s decision-makers. Racist tweets by key members and a lack of persuasive arguments for not supporting land expropriation is damaging to the party, however, a unifying factor for the EFF and ANC.

One cannot separate land reform from the upcoming elections, and the issue is so contested that it demanded political parties have not only a viewpoint but policies, strategies and mechanisms for implementation. Taking into consideration historical injustices and the demographic makeup of the country, parties who would have been against restitution or compensation were committing political suicide. Thus, the DA alienated itself on any discussion on compensation reforms by emphasizing individual land ownership and property rights. There continues to be a public perception that Mmusi Maimane isn’t a true reflection of the party he leads, but rather a front controlled by those whom De Lille deemed as ideologically unyielding, and that his powers are limited. This is a sentiment instilling distrust of the DA, specifically among the black population. Additionally, the DA seems to have vested a lot in demonising Zuma, neglecting to prepare for an ANC post Zuma. The current ANC has strategically distanced itself from its predecessor. Fundamentally, due to De Lille, racism cases and arguments against land redistribution, we should see a decline in the DA’s following compared to 2014.

The EFF which holds third place could show substantial growth these elections, specifically the backing of disgruntled youth who align their unemployment to the lack of economic freedom caused by “White Monopoly Capitalists” and the failed ANC that hasn’t improved their lives. The land rhetoric is a fundamental issue amongst the black population and the poor living in cramped squatter camps vulnerable to storms and fires. Considering illegal land grabs, violent protests, and the VBS saga, the EFF might only see a marginal growth rate, however, making it less likely that it will take from the DA the place of official opposition.

The EFF does play a crucial role, though its methods are perceived by many as too extreme and leading to political instability. The EFF speaks to the identity and economic role of the youth black population in the context of modern South Africa. The EFF has effectively highlighted that the ANC does not consider youth candidates for leadership roles, positioning it as a beacon for youth and the poor population. However, a factor possibly acting as a direct restrictor of its full potential is the lack of a virtuous and diplomatic approach towards political issues. For these reasons, relating to the ideals of the EFF does not necessarily equate a vote for the party. Nonetheless, we should see the EFF within a growth range.

The crucial change of course that made these elections difficult to predict was the resignation of Zuma. The local elections shook the ANC into an immediate need for self-reflection. The complete focus on discrediting Zuma by the DA left the party with no other basis to justify a political power grab. Meanwhile, the EFF, while speaking to the disgruntled youth, has not proven virtuous enough to be considered responsible for meeting the basic needs and safety of individuals. The DA has lost much credibility due to matters linked to racism but this will not necessarily translate into its losing second place. To a great extent, the success of the ANC during the 2019 elections is a result of the DA and EFF’s success during local elections and Zuma’s resignation. Those who held back their 2014 vote, the drastic loss of key metros during local elections and those who stayed away during 2014 and 2016 will return a substantial degree following the recreating of the ANC.

Written By Ndamulelo Nemavhandu, a political commentator from Gabriel Crest Consulting