It has now subsided a bit, but a burning question was whether Pres. Ramaphosa will get a second term in 2022. Yes, he will. His position in the party is unassailable. He has outwitted every single opponent: Zuma, Magashule, Mahumapelo, Gumede… The erstwhile “premier league” is in tatters.

The ANC decision on 26 March that members charged in court should step aside was an important turning point. Across the country, some 68 ANC members are affected, and they are all stepping aside. It includes strong Ramaphosa supporters like Mike Mabuyakhulu and recently even Zweli Mkhize, although the latter has not yet been charged.  Unless the courts save Ace Magashule, he is finished in the ANC. Supra Mahumapelo has been suspended from the party for five years. The same NEC that ruled on step-aside also put the RET faction under the cosh. They will be further constrained by the envisaged merger of the ANC’s military veterans’ branches. There is no question of who is in charge of the ANC.

Many people asked whether we have a key-man risk in respect of Pres. Ramaphosa. No doubt we do. The work being done on corruption and economic reform will suffer seriously if he disappears.

Also repeatedly asked is who will succeed Pres. Ramaphosa. At this stage we just don’t know. A successor will emerge in in the run-up to the next ANC elective conference in 2027.

Linked to questions on his political position are question about whether he can deliver on reform. After the recent announcements about power generation and SAA, the answer seems rather obvious. I have been writing about upcoming changes in electricity since 2019. Increasingly, that picture is being confirmed.

Economic reform also follows on the sterling work done on rebuilding SARS, the NPA and the SIU on which we reported extensively in August 2020 (see http://www.jplandman.co.za/Home/Read/559). As is clear from media reports, this work is ongoing and not losing any momentum. I will do an update in the second half of the year.

It should by now be clear to any observer that Pres Ramaphosa’s style is to set in motion processes methodically and systematically, wait patiently for them to play out and harvest the results. His inclusive leadership style may frustrate his critics but it is working.

So what?

Pres. Ramaphosa will probably serve as the country’s president for the next eight years.

This means that we have a key-man risk, because there is no one who is an obvious successor should something happen to him (unlikely to be Deputy President DD Mabuza).

He is delivering on structural reform and anti-corruption measures. That work will continue.

Written by JP Landman, Political & Trend Analyst

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