Three days ago President Jacob Zuma announced that the 2014 general election would take place on 7 May. This is an election for both a new national assembly as well as the provincial legislature in each of the nine provinces.

Every election has its own dynamics and it is very clear that the 2014 election will be very different from the April 2009 election as far as issues; competing parties and the form of campaigning are concerned. What adds interest is that the overall outcome could also vary from 2009.

In the interest of our investing global client-base we intend focusing strongly on the election because it has enormous implications for the future of democracy in this country and huge implications for the economy.  And as a background, and given the undoubted interest in this election to our substantial international clients, we wish to focus on the outcome of the last election and so set a backdrop to 2014. In 2009 the African National Congress Alliance gained 65.90% of the votes (down from 69.69% in the previous election of 2004). The major opposition party the Democratic Alliance gained 16.66% (up from 12.37% in 2004). Had the ANC gained 66% it would have had the necessary two-thirds majority to change the constitution. This remains therefore an important consideration in 2014.

The National Assembly consists of 400 members elected by proportional representation with what is referred to as the closed list approach. 200 members are elected from National lists; the other 200 are elected from Provincial Party lists in each of the nine provinces. The President of South Africa is chosen by the National Assembly after each election; and the Premiers of each province are chosen by the winning majority in each provincial legislature. For a political party to win a seat in Parliament it needs to gain 0.25 % of the total votes cast.

Eligible citizens need to be registered as voters to be able to vote. In the 2009 election some 23 million people were registered to vote, which was about 2.5 million more than in 2004. About 76% of registered voters took part in the election, with about 12-million people eligible to vote either not registering to vote (an estimated 7 million), or did register but did not vote (5.4 million).

Registration, unlike some European systems is not compulsory but voluntary in South Africa, and is therefore a hurdle to actual voting. It is likely to play a major role in the 2014 election, given the likelihood of a potentially greater youth and unemployed vote than previously.

NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL ASSEMBLY RESULTS 2009

The election for the National Assembly in 2009 was contested by no fewer than 26 political parties. The following are the parties that actually gained representation. To view National and Provincial results for 2009 please click here.  

There are unlikely to be any big surprises in the provincial votes – with two possible exceptions. The Democratic Alliance is pushing hard to capture Gauteng (Johannesburg and surroundings) and the economic capital of South Africa. The other possible surprise would be if the ANC took the Western Cape away from the Democratic Alliance. In its determination to win this province, the only one of the nine that it does not control, the ANC and its acolytes have already resorted to the pre-freedom strategy of trying to make the Western Cape "ungovernable".

But turning to 2014, and without attempting a comprehensive statement, the following are likely to be issues around which the election will revolve.

• A very general comment by both local and international analysts is that South Africa lacks leadership, and President Zuma is the main culprit in the view of both local and international analysts. He is also bugged by charges of misapplication of public funds (Nkandla) and covering up on the arms deal. Aside from polls which indicate his popularity is declining quite dramatically, the booing at Nelson Mandela's commemoration must have made an impact on the perception of voters generally. Notwithstanding this, Zuma will of course be elected President.  But the question is whether this will be for a prematurely short second term?
• South Africa has many problems, but the main ones centre around unemployment, poverty, and inequality. For the first time - as is happening elsewhere in the world, the unemployed youth are flexing their muscles; and what role they will play in the coming election could be very important.
• What effect – if any – will Nelson Mandela's passing from the scene have on the ANC's claim to be the sole representative of "the struggle legacy"? A consideration in this regard is that the 27th April is Freedom Day which obviously will lend itself to major celebrations
• Given the present division within the Labour movement, will this lead to a new party as some suggest? And if workers' support does not go to the ANC, where will it go, and to which party?
• Heavy speculation late last year, based on voter surveys, suggested that the ANC's share of the vote might fall below 55%. Is this likely? If this happens, it would quite dramatically change the single-party dominant political system South Africa has at the moment, and so introducing a greater element of competition.
• Will the election have any effect on the ANC government's high spending and on corruption?
• Which political party will pick up the National Development Plan and run with it? - particularly now that the Minister of Finance has put it at the centre of government economic policy.
• Past elections have been relatively free of interparty strife leading to violence. That is less certain of 2014. A serious consideration is the climate in which electioneering will take place - given the violence in the service delivery protests and unruliness specifically directed at the DA and its leader. 
• Will the Democratic Alliance achieve its hopes of gaining more middle-class black voters? And what impact has the failed attempt to link up with Mamphela Ramphele and her Agang have on the DA and on the DA leadership?
• According to one influential commentator, there have been no fewer than three thousand service delivery protest actions in the last 90 days, involving more than 1 million people. What are these people going to do when they go into the polling booth? Of course, this assumes that they are registered voters.
• Notwithstanding the South African news media's preoccupation with Julius Malema, and the ANC's determination to squash him, the young man has made an impact. The question is who is going to pay what Julius owes the taxman so that he is reinstated and can therefore be elected to take a seat in Parliament in terms of the Constitution?
• No doubt many clever people will be watching the news media's role in this election - given major changes in ownership.
• Regarding economic policy. We doubt whether anyone can have faith in the present governments' management of economic policy after reading Chris Barron's interview with Public Enterprise Minister Malusi Gibaba on his views on SAA in the last Sunday Times. (The airline, again looking for further massive tax funding, has 1500 managers for its 9400 employees! This, says Gibaba, can't be corrected because of government policy!).
• Clearly, in the area of public economic policy business and business associations need to start making their voices heard now!
• Which political party will put education at the centre of its election manifesto? And who will highlight the importance of agriculture and food production? – given that South Africa, from being a food exporter, is now a food importer.

This way of conceptualising an election, highlighting the important issues and implying consequences, is obviously ambitious. We are dealing with a human situation and all the emotions and drama which this involves. However, the exercise is undertaken in the Socratic spirit of "the unexamined life is not worth living".  And in this spirit we encourage you, wherever you may be in the 26 countries Omega reaches, to follow what is an important event to South Africa and internationally.

Editorial Note:
We said in an earlier Insight 2014 is going to be an important year for Africa. Aside from the fact that there will be elections in South Africa and in several other countries, there is significant interest in whether Africa can maintain its impressive growth over the past few years and whether; by contrast the South African economy can improve on its less impressive performance.  Against this background, the election on 7 May is very important. Incidentally, the first fully democratic election in terms of the new constitution took place in 1994, the second in 1999, the third in 2004 and the most recent in 2009.

We intend focussing very fully on this election and with this first Insight Dr Worrall sets a backdrop to the election – something we know our international clients appreciate.

Stacey Farao, Managing Editor