The SACCI Business Confidence Index (BCI) measured 111.3 in March 2023 after declining by 0.6 index point from 111.9 in February 2023. The BCI shed 4.4 index points in January 2023, surrendered only 1.0 index point in February, and 0.6 index point in March 2013 – in total a decline of 6 index points since December 2022. Year-on-year the BCI increased by 1.6 index point from 110.4 in the 1st quarter of 2022 to 112.0 in the 1stquarter of 2023.

From February to March 2023 the business environment experienced a rather mixed state of affairs with four of the fourteen sub-indices of the BCI turning negative, five being neutral, and five sub-indices making a positive impact on the SACCI BCI. Amongst these more notable positive sub-indices were increased merchandise export volumes, more overseas tourists and higher new vehicle sales.

The BCI was impacted at various levels by electricity supply issues with blackouts continuing to strain business while the rand price of fuel was relatively stable. However, the lagged and knock-on effect of electricity supply shortages on the economy and business confidence are of major cost concern. The negative month-to month impacts of the declining real value of building plans passed, lower JSE share prices, and rising real interest rates are of concern to business prospects going forward.  

The business climate changed only slightly over the medium-term (year-on-year) with the BCI increasing by 0.8 index point on March 2022 and suggests the degree to which businesses are factoring in a tighter business environment.  Inward tourism and new vehicle sales had a notable positive y/y effect on the BCI.

The business environment remains sensitive as a number of factors are likely to have an impact on the business eco system going forward.

 

Issued by SACCI