TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. INTRODUCTION
2. CRIME SITUATION AT NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL LEVEL

2.1 NATIONAL CRIME SITUATION
2.2 CRIME SITUATION AT PROVINCIAL LEVEL

3. THE PRESENTATION OF CRIME STATISTICS
4. ESCAPES FROM DETENTION OR LEGAL CUSTODY
5. SOUTH AFRICAN POLICE SERVICE (SAPS) CASUALTIES
6. SUCCESSES ACHIEVED BY ORGANISED CRIME INVESTIGATION AND SPECIALIST UNITS
7. BANK ROBBERIES AND ROBBERIES OF CASH IN TRANSIT
8. COMMERCIAL CRIME
9. SUGGESTIONS TOWARDS CRIME PREVENTION

9.1 HIJACKING OF MOTOR VEHICLES
9.2 STOCK-THEFT

ANNEXURE A: NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL CRIME STATISTICS
ANNEXURE B: BREAKDOWN OF STATISTICS TO PROVINCIAL AND AREA LEVEL

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

MAIN FINDINGS

• 1. A comparison of crime ratios for the period January to June 1994, 1995, 1996 and 1997 pertaining to the 20 most serious crime tendencies reveal the following:

• Of the 20 tendencies under consideration, 11 (accounting for 54.7% of the total volume of serious crime) are decreasing.
• Nine of the 20 tendencies (accounting for 45.3% of the total volume of serious crime) are stabilising. None of the tendencies increased.
• The above figures indicate an improvement on the picture presented in the previous Quarterly Report, as only 9 tendencies (accounting for 47.7% of the volume of serious crime) decreased during the first quarter of 1997.
• The 20 serious crime tendencies under consideration account for approximately 74.0% of the total volume of crime reported in South Africa [see Section 2 of this report].
• 2. The Provincial breakdown of crime tendencies reveals very much the same pattern as that observed in Quarterly Report 1/97 and Quarterly Report 2/97, namely that Gauteng, the Western Cape and the Northern Cape occupy the first, second and third positions respectively as far as the incidence of serious crime is concerned [see Section 2 of this report].
• 3. Although 3 386 detainees escaped during 2 271 incidents of escape from Police custody between January 1996 and March 1997, calculations made by the CIMC indicate that these figures actually reflect an escape ratio of only 0.3%, which is very low. On the other hand, 72.9% of these escapes involved suspects detained in connection with charges of murder, attempted murder, assault GBH, rape and armed robbery [see Section 4 of this report].
• 4. Two-thirds of Police members who had died during the first semesters of 1996 and 1997 succumbed to unnatural causes. The fact that murders of Police members increased by 29.3% between 1996 and 1997, is cause for serious concern.
• 5. Sections 6, 7 and 8 of this report deal with organised and commercial crime, while Section 9 contains suggestions towards crime prevention with reference to hijackings and stock-theft

1. INTRODUCTION

This Quarterly Report (3/97) contains the crime statistics for the first six months of 1997. These are also compared to the crime figures reported for the first six months of 1994, 1995 and 1996 respectively.

Two comments are immediately appropriate at this stage, namely:

• Comparisons based on six-monthly (half-yearly) periods provide a much stronger basis for predictions than those based on periods of 3 months. This report, which presents a more positive crime picture than report 2/97, therefore provides considerably more reason for optimism as far as the rest of 1997 is concerned. Hopefully the positive trend will increase over the next few years, especially in view of the fact that South Africa is a finalist in the bid for the 2004 Olympic Games.
• Judged by international standards, the Crime Information Management Centre (CIMC) of the South African Police Service (SAPS) can be reasonably satisfied with the fact that a report of this nature, covering the first six months of the year, is already made available to the public during the second week of September. The only other crime statistics for the whole of South Africa which have become available since June are those for July 1997. These are now being checked and processed. This clearly illustrates the fact that the CIMC actually has to prepare and produce these quarterly reports within a period of one month. This is an exceptional achievement, especially in view of the fact that this Centre, like many other units within the SAPS, has to function with less than 50% of its designated human and logistical resources and is to an increasing extent directly being involved in operational support tasks like tactical and crime pattern analyses.

Before proceeding to the crime situation prevailing at national and provincial level, it is necessary to briefly take cognisance of the following:

• Unlike in the previous quarterly report, 2/97, this report contains very few research findings. The respective CIMC offices are actively engaged in (a) docket analysis of which the results would only be published in report 4/97 (during November 1997) and (b) the implementation of different initiatives to facilitate much more advanced analysis/research during 1998. These initiatives have already been mentioned in report 1/97. In the meantime, considerable progress has been made with the following:
• The compilation of a Geographic Information System (GIS) data base in cooperation with the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) and the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR). This has progressed to such an extent that it is anticipated that report 4/97 (the next quarterly report) will already contain the first GIS analyses. However, much effort will still have to be spent on the project deep into 1998 in order to derive optimal advantage from it.
• The investigation into a new Crime Code List, which will have a truly significant effect on the enhancement of the CIMC's ability to do strategic, operational and tactical crime analyses. The new Crime Code List will hopefully become operational during the first half of 1998.
• The development of a crime pattern analysis (or operational analysis) model at station level.
• A second effort to measure the under-reporting of crime (the base-line data have been published in report 2/97).
• An investigation into the gathering, analysis, interpretation and dissemination of crime statistics led by Dr Mark Orkin and a committee of experts.

It once again has to be emphasised that all the above progress has been made despite severe impediments caused by shrinking human and logistic resources.

In the rest of this report the following matters are addressed:

• The crime situation at national and provincial level.
• The presentation of crime statistics.
• Escapes from detention or legal custody.
• South African Police Service (SAPS) casualties.
• Successes achieved by organised crime investigation and specialist units.
• Bank robberies and robberies of cash in transit.
• Commercial crime.
• Suggestions towards crime prevention.

2. CRIME SITUATION AT NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL LEVEL

Statistics pertaining to the incidence of crime at national and provincial level during the first six months of 1997 are compared and briefly discussed in the following paragraphs.

2.1 NATIONAL CRIME SITUATION

Crime ratios pertaining to 20 serious crime tendencies, all experiencing an annual incidence of 20 or more cases per 100 000 of the population, are shown for the period 1 January to 30 June 1997 in Table 1. The ratios are also compared to crime ratios for the corresponding period during 1994, 1995 and 1996 respectively. These 20 tendencies account for 99.3% of the total volume of serious crime (the 28 tendencies featured in Annexure A) and approximately 74% of the total volume of all crime. From Table 1 the following is evident:

11 of the 20 tendencies (accounting for 54.7% of the total volume of serious crime) are decreasing. (In the previous quarterly report, 2/97, it was mentioned that 9 tendencies accounting for 47.7% of the volume of serious crime were decreasing over the period under consideration in that report.) It therefore seems as if the decrease in the ratios of serious crime tendencies is gathering momentum. The other 9 tendencies (accounting for 45.3% of the total volume of crime) stabilised, while no single tendency has increased.

If the incidence of murder, robbery with aggravating circumstances and arson continues to decline at the same rate of decrease evident since 1994 in future, the ratios pertaining to these three categories of crime may possibly even decrease by nearly 50% between 1994 and 1999.

Notwithstanding what was said above and despite a stabilising or decreasing trend observed with regard to the ratios of the 20 tendencies under consideration, the incidence of crime in the country is still at a very high and unacceptable level, with crime frequencies in many instances still increasing (see Annexure A in connection with the actual numbers of reported cases of crime).

TABLE 1

A COMPARISON OF THE 1994, 1995, 1996 AND 1997 JANUARY TO JUNE INCREASE/DECREASE IN THE CRIME RATIOS (PER 100 000 OF THE POPULATION) RELATED TO SPECIFIC CRIME CATEGORIES (ONLY THOSE CATEGORIES OF CRIME 20 <= PER 100 000 OF THE POPULATION ANNUALLY)

RATIOS BASED ON ESTIMATES CALCULATED FROM THE 1991 CENSUS RESULTS

As far as rape and both serious and common assault are concerned, it is anticipated that the incidence of these crimes will only start decreasing once the suspected under-reporting of these crimes is eliminated and a less brutal/violent and alcohol/drug dependent culture has been established among new generations through a process of socialisation. Policing as such (eg an increase in visible policing) will probably not cause a noticeable decrease in the incidence of these three crime tendencies. With regard to these crimes, a strong partnership between the Police, relevant National Crime Prevention Strategy (NCPS) partners like the Department of Welfare and Community Police Forums (CPF's), as well as with other partners in the community and Non-Governmental Organisations (NGO's), may make a tangible difference. Even greater success will be achieved in this regard if the SAPS can succeed in increasing the last three tendencies featured in Table 1 (ie the crimes heavily dependent on police action for detection).

Burglaries at residential premises and other robberies, which are crimes mostly committed by petty criminals acting alone, are not likely to decrease before the unemployment situation has improved. Unlike in the case of rape and assault, the above two crime categories can be expected to respond to increased levels of policing and can to a certain extent be curbed within specific areas by means of crime pattern analysis and crime prevention patrols. However, a problem associated with this type of policing is that it often serves to displace crime from one area to another.

A highly policeable crime category like robbery with aggravating circumstances, which encompasses high profile crimes often hitting the news headlines like carjacking, the hijacking of trucks, robbery of cash in transit and bank robberies, and which according to Table 1 experienced one of the most statistically significant decreasing trends, is something of a mixed bag. It is for this reason that the latter sub-categories of this crime are featured separately at the end of Annexure A. However, the footnote underneath the statistics pertaining to these sub-categories of crime should be carefully noted, namely that the totals for these crimes are also already accounted for under the total number of robberies with aggravating circumstances. From the comparisons featured on the last page of Annexure A it is evident that robberies of cash in transit and bank robberies decreased by 60.7% and 28.9% respectively during the first six months of 1997, compared to 1996. Carjackings and the hijacking of trucks had respectively decreased by only 4.0% and increased by 7.0% over the same period. Like in the case of similar successes achieved during 1996 in combating hijackings, the successes achieved in decreasing the frequency of bank robberies and the robbery of cash in transit may possibly be attributed to the launching of intelligence-driven operations. The latter refer to operations based on the profiling of suspects, network analysis and crime pattern analysis. (Operation Omega on the Witwatersrand during 1996 succeeded in decreasing the number of hijackings by almost 20% in this way.)

It is frequently said that not only the frequency or ratios pertaining to crimes like bank robberies and the robbery of cash in transit should be considered in evaluating the increasing or decreasing incidence of these crimes, but also the monetary values involved and the degree of violence employed. The same arguments are also sometimes raised in connection with hijackings. The CIMC cannot wholly agree with these arguments. The reasons for this are the following:

All the relevant information is not available on the CAS/SAP6.

If these arguments are considered valid with regard to the above crimes, they should also apply to every other category of crime - and especially property related crimes.

Except if one assumes that bank robbers and those robbing cash in transit know every time approximately how much cash could be looted when they strike (which would raise serious questions regarding the security and integrity of the industries involved), the amounts robbed can be considered to be mostly of a coincidental nature and determined by such random factors like the week, day and time of occurrence of the robberies, the size of eg the bank branches involved, the size of the gangs (criminal groups) committing the robberies, or the types of vehicle the robber/s are looking for in the case of hijackings. Furthermore, the degree of violence employed by the robber/s is deemed to be almost wholly determined by situational factors. Some of these situational factors are the following:

• The brutality of the robbers involved.
• The degree of nervousness experienced by the robbers.
• The calibre of the firearms used.
• The presence of people/members of the public, etc at the scene of an attack.
• The "necessity" to use violence (the robber(s) may eventually start shooting in what may seem to them to be "self-defence"). From available information it also seems as if robbers are more liable to shoot at security personnel transporting cash, as there are usually fewer members of the public present at the scenes of these crimes.

2.2 CRIME SITUATION AT PROVINCIAL LEVEL

The provincial crime ratios are compared in Tables 2 and 3. Table 2 is based on projected figures calculated on the basis of the 1991 census results and Table 3 on the preliminary results of the 1996 census. This is only done to illustrate the influence of the 1996 census results on the provincial crime picture. Where geographic areas are compared to one another further on in this report, ratios will be calculated on the basis of the preliminary results of the 1996 census. However, where comparisons over time are done (see previous section), projections based on the mid-year estimates derived from the 1991 census will be employed, as the present population growth rate has not yet been made available. As soon as the population growth rate based on the 1996 census results becomes available over the next year, the new census figures will also be used in comparisons pertaining to different time periods.

TABLE 2

PROVINCES DEPICTING A HIGHER INCIDENCE OF SPECIFIC CRIMES PER 100 000 OF THE POPULATION THAN THE RSA AVERAGE OVER THE PERIOD 1 JANUARY TO 30 JUNE 1997

FIGURES BASED ON ESTIMATES CALCULATED FROM THE 1991 CENSUS RESULTS

TABLE 3

PROVINCES DEPICTING A HIGHER INCIDENCE OF SPECIFIC CRIMES PER 100 000 OF THE POPULATION THAN THE RSA AVERAGE OVER THE PERIOD 1 JANUARY TO 30 JUNE 1997

FIGURES BASED ON THE PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF THE 1996 CENSUS

From Table 3 the following is evident:

• Gauteng occupies 7 first, 2 second, 2 third, 2 fourth and 1 sixth position in Table 3. The only serious crime in this province featuring a ratio below the national average is stock-theft.
• The Western Cape occupies 2 first, 7 second and 3 third positions. The three serious crimes featuring ratios below the national average in this province are stock-theft, the theft of motor vehicles and robbery with aggravating circumstances.
• The Northern Cape occupies 5 first, 2 second, 2 third and 1 fifth positions. The five serious crimes featuring ratios below the national average in this province are housebreaking at residential premises, vehicle theft, theft out of or from motor vehicles, attempted murder and robbery with aggravating circumstances.
• The Free State occupies 1 second, 3 third and 4 fourth positions. The seven serious crimes featuring ratios below the national average in this province are other robbery, vehicle theft, theft out of or from motor vehicles, fraud, murder, attempted murder and robbery with aggravating circumstances.
• As far as the other five provinces are concerned, KwaZulu-Natal features with regard to 4 serious crime categories (namely murder, attempted murder, robbery with aggravating circumstances and stock-theft) above the national average, while both the North West Province and the Eastern Cape feature three serious crimes above the national average, Mpumalanga features only one and the Northern Province none.

3. THE PRESENTATION OF CRIME STATISTICS

The release of crime statistics over the past year frequently gave rise to questions, some of which will hopefully be dealt with in this report. The questions revolved mainly around the following subjects:

• Crime ratios versus crime frequencies.
• The impact of the new census data on crime ratios.
• The possible impact of organised crime on the tendencies depicted in the tables containing crime figures.

Crime ratios versus crime frequencies In the previous sections of this report, crime ratios were employed in discussions dealing with the incidence of crime. In most cases specific crime tendencies were discussed in terms of incidence per 100 000 of the population. These ratios, employing population figures as equaliser (common denominator), makes it possible to compare items with one another. The employment of ratios, instead of frequencies, is international usage.

The advantage of employing ratios is that the growth in population figures over time is neutralised. In this way provision is made to prevent the population growth from causing an artificial increase in crime tendencies not reflecting a real increase in the incidence of crime. The employment of ratios furthermore enables one to compare the incidence of crime in different communities, notwithstanding the differences pertaining to the size of populations. It also has to be emphasised that comparisons based on ratios are more correct than comparisons involving frequencies, as ratios indicate the following:

The probability of becoming a victim of a specific crime. The chances of falling victim to an act of assault with the intent to inflict grievous bodily harm are at least two times higher in the Northern Cape, for example, than in the Western Cape (cf Table 3).

The presence of those factors/combination of factors conducive to the incidence of a specific crime and which really have to be addressed in order to combat that crime effectively.

It would, on the other hand, be totally wrong to rely only on ratios as far as planning pertaining to policing is concerned. The distribution of human and logistic resources has, as a matter of course, to depend on the frequency of the incidence of crime, while also taking crime ratios into consideration. This really boils down to the fact that the largest volumes of crime will logically be associated with the densest concentrations of population - although these areas may not necessarily reflect the highest crime ratios - and will therefore need the largest concentration of human and logistical resources available to the Police.

In determining the distribution of Police resources, both the concentration of crime (frequency) and ratios (incidence per population), as well as the policeability of the crimes occurring within a given precinct, should be taken into consideration.

The impact of the new census data on the crime ratios In the previous sections repeated reference has been made to the census data. It has, for example, been said that until a new population growth rate is released next year (1998), calculations based on the old (1991) census data will have to be used as far as comparisons over time (eg Table 1) are concerned and that the new 1996 census data will only be used in comparisons referring to geographical areas (eg comparisons between provinces and areas respectively). The reason for this is that because of the lower than expected population figures released in the preliminary 1996 census results, a considerable increase in the crime ratios was reported (higher crime figures now have to be divided among lower population figures). The difference in crime ratios is clearly evident from a comparison between Tables 2 and 3, especially as far as the RSA totals are concerned.

The possible impact of organised crime on crime figures The crime ratios and figures contained inTables 1 - 3 and Annexures A and B of this report basically reflect the result of crimes committed with different motives. The present crime registration system (Crime Code List) makes it impossible to determine the proportion of crimes associated with different motives. The system at present under investigation and due for implementation during 1998 will possibly facilitate such an analysis.

Basically, the new system will enable differentiation among broad categories of motives associated with crime. The following will serve to illustrate what is meant by this:

Property related and economically motivated/commercial crimes are usually committed as a result of need/lack of basic necessities. In this regard it should be noted that not only absolute deprivation (poverty), but also relative deprivation, may serve as a motive to commit this type of crime. Already well-off/prominent business persons or highly paid senior civil servants may, for example, end up committing such crimes if their lifestyles land them in economic crises. It is, in fact, generally accepted by sociologists that needs increase with upward social mobility. The following should furthermore be taken into consideration in this regard:

People involved in property related/economically motivated crimes always run the risk of being caught red-handed or being exposed in another way. In an effort to prevent being caught, or to wipe out clues, such criminals may resort to murder, attempted murder or any other violent crime.

Once people become involved in crime in the above ways, they may easily be recruited into organised crime. They can either become convinced that crime is an easy way to make a living, or find it so profitable that it engenders a degree of greed conducive to the development of organised crime.

What this really means, is that no clear dividing lines can be drawn among the different categories of motives associated with crime.

Organised crime deals with crimes not committed because of any need/lack of essential commodities, but rather because of an insatiable craving for wealth and power. Organised crime is motivated by greed rather than need, although the initial involvement of people in organised crime may have resulted from need. It should also not be forgotten that crime begets crime, as is obvious from the following:

Some individuals may stand in the way of organised crime's pursuit of wealth and influence, or may be too competitive to its liking. This situation may contribute towards violent crimes like murder, attempted murder, etc.

Organised crime is usually concerned with crimes like the smuggling of contraband (eg firearms and drugs). The theft and robbery of property and/or cash can serve to finance this illegal trade.

Organised crime can also contribute indirectly to the crimes mentioned in the tables contained in this report. Organised crime's smuggling activities involve inter alia drugs and firearms, which may both play a role in household and inter-personal conflict, as well as in property related crimes. Dependency on drugs may result in the victim resorting to crime in order to satisfy this expensive habit, while a person under the influence of drugs may be more easily triggered to commit violent crimes.

Domestic and inter-personal conflict between individuals may also contribute to the crimes under consideration in this report, especially assault, serious assault, attempted murder and murder itself. Research findings contained in Quarterly Reports 1/97 and 2/97 indicated that domestic and inter-personal conflict may be the primary contributor to these violent and social fabric related crimes.

Crimes like rape and indecent assault usually have a sexually related motive.

Political, ideological or religious convictions may contribute a large category of motives associated with certain crimes.

All these broad categories of motives contributed to a larger or lesser extent to the crimes featured in Tables 1-3, although the relative importance of each category is difficult, if not impossible, to gauge at this stage.

4. ESCAPES FROM DETENTION OR LEGAL CUSTODY

In order to obtain information pertaining to escapes from detention and legal custody, questionnaires were on 10 April 1997 sent out to all Provincial Commissioners for completion by all Police Stations in their respective Provinces.

Despite repeated efforts made to obtain a complete picture of the number of escapes from legal custody, the following statistics indicate the situation confronting this office when this report was compiled during the second week of June 1997. A total number of 841 usable returns (including 419 NIL returns) were received, 200 returns were either incorrect or incomplete and 64 Stations registered for the completion of crime returns on the Crime Management Information system failed to return any questionnaires.

When the Stations reporting NIL returns were counted with those Stations which reported escapes and correctly completed their returns, as well as with those Stations which reported escapes, but returned incorrectly filled in or incomplete questionnaires, it became clear that escapes were reported at 59.8% of all Stations between January 1996 and March 1997. For the purposes of further analysis, only the 422 Stations reporting escapes and returning correctly filled in questionnaires were considered.

Between January 1996 and March 1997 a total number of 2 957 incidents involving the escape of 4 241 detainees were reported. Escapes from Police custody accounted for 2 271 (76.8%) of these incidents and 3 386 (79,8%) of the escaped detainees.

An average of 147 incidents of escape from Police custody were reported per month during 1996. However, the highest incidence of escapes was reported during November (172) and December (201) 1996. The highest number of detainees also escaped during the above two months, namely 271 and 313 respectively. The average number of detainees escaping from custody stood at 222 per month during 1996. Between January and March 1997 a total number of 508 escapes from custody were reported, compared to 415 such incidents reported during the corresponding period in 1996. These figures indicate an increase of 22.4%. The number of detainees escaping from custody also increased by 12.8% between January and March 1996 and the corresponding period in 1997, namely from 640 escapees to 722.

An analysis of the circumstances surrounding the escape of detainees showed that returns pertaining to 42 of the 422 Stations under consideration for 1996 and 14 of the Stations under consideration for 1997 could not be used for the purposes of the analysis. This report therefore deals with only 380 Stations during 1996 and 428 Stations during the first three months of 1997 as far as circumstances surrounding escapes are concerned:

During 1996, 686 (45.8%) of the 1 498 reported incidents involved escapes from Police cells, 225 (15.0%) escapes from detention at courts, 215 (14.4%) escapes from Charge Offices after arrests and 115 (7.7%) escapes during arrests.

An average of 2 persons per incident escaped from Police cells and between courts and prisons during 1996, with an average of 1.3 persons per incident involved in escapes between courts and Police cells.

The same tendencies prevailed during the first three months of 1997: An average of 1.9 persons per incident escaped from Police cells, with an average of 2.3 persons per incident escaping between courts and prisons.

A total number of 900 164 persons were detained during 1996 at the 422 Police Stations for which correctly completed returns were received. The 2 664 escaped detainees reported during this year by the above Stations indicate an escape ratio of 0.3%, which is actually very low. Exactly the same ratio applies to the period January to March 1997, with 722 escapes reported among the total number of 234010 detainees held over this period. Notwithstanding small decimal differences, no indication could be obtained of a higher incidence of escapes from custody in certain Provinces.

From the total number of 2 664 escapees reported during 1996 by the above Stations, 200 had been detained in connection with charges of murder, 95 in connection with attempted murder, 1 182 in connection with assault with the intent to inflict grievous bodily harm, 234 in connection with rape charges, and 230 in connection with armed robberies. The above categories of escapees accounted for 1 941 or 72.9% of all escapes. The comparable figures for the period January to March 1997 are very much of the same order, with the above categories of detainees accounting for 71.2% of all escapes from custody.

5. SOUTH AFRICAN POLICE SERVICE (SAPS) CASUALTIES

The following table relates to the number of fatal casualties and the manner in which members of the SAPS had died during the first semester of 1996 and 1997 respectively.

TABLE 4 - SAPS CASUALTY FIGURES : JANUARY - JUNE 1996 AND 1997⁽¹⁾

From the above table the following is evident:

• Two-thirds of Police members who had died during the first semester of 1996 and 1997 died from unnatural causes. Of those members dying from unnatural causes, the majority had been murdered, with motor vehicle accidents the second most important cause of death, closely followed by suicides.
• It is a matter of serious concern that the number of Police officials murdered had increased by 29.3% between the first semester of 1996 and the corresponding period in 1997.
• If the murder ratios of Police members and members of the general public are compared for the period under consideration, it is found that the chances of a Police member becoming the victim of murder had been 10.4 per 10 000, while the same figure for the general population stood at 2.6 per 10 000. This means that a member of the SAPS is four times more likely to be murdered than a member of the public.

The murder of Police officials is at present being researched by the CIMC in cooperation with the Criminology Department of the University of South Africa (UNISA). The results of this research will probably be released before the end of 1997. The high incidence of suicide among members of the SAPS is also being researched by the Psychological Support Services of the SAPS, while the National Suicide Prevention Committee is conducting a survey of which the results are expected to become available by November 1997. It is believed that these research projects will shed more light on the high casualty figures suffered by the Police and that the findings will result in pro-active steps aimed at decreasing these depressing statistics.

1. Sources: Medical Boards and Establishment Management.

6. SUCCESSES ACHIEVED BY ORGANISED CRIME INVESTIGATION AND SPECIALIST UNITS

Successes achieved by organised crime investigation and specialists units of the National Detective Service are being recorded on a monthly basis since the beginning of 1997. However, the statistics are at this stage incomplete, as reports are not regularly received from all the units involved. It should furthermore be kept in mind that all the successes reflected in the following table have not necessarily been achieved only by members of the units specialising in that specific field. Stock-theft units may, for example, arrest drug-dealers in the course of their operations, etc. Suspects arrested in connection with crimes usually associated with organised crime may also not necessarily be involved in organised crime itself. Nothwithstanding the above provisos, the figures contained in the table below serve to illustrate some of the successes achieved in certain specialised fields of crime combating.

TABLE 5 - PROJECT SUCCESSES FOR THE PERIOD 1 JANUARY 1997 TO 30 JUNE 1997⁽¹⁾

A. MOTOR VEHICLE RELATED CRIMES

B. DRUG RELATED CRIME

C. FIREARM RELATED CRIME

The value of the above was not reported

D. DIAMOND AND GOLD

E. STOCK THEFT

1. Statistics reflect only what was reported to the Crime Information Management Centre
2. Calculated at R35 000.per vehicle

7. BANK ROBBERIES AND ROBBERIES OF CASH IN TRANSIT

During April 1997 an operation currently managed as a project by the Organised Crime component of the National Detective Service was launched to combat bank robberies and the robbery of cash in transit in Gauteng.

The Tactical Research Unit of the CIMC at the National Detective Service, Head Office, processed 293 case dockets involving incidents of bank robbery and the robbery of cash in transit reported between January 1996 and 21 April 1997. A total number of 27 suspects were identified as wanted offenders. Profiles of these 27 offenders were compiled and submitted to the Gauteng Murder and Robbery Field Team, leading to the arrest of 8 of these suspects. (Between 13 March and 30 July 1997, a total number of 43 offenders (all bank robbers) were arrested by the Gauteng Murder and Robbery Field Team.) The Tactical Research Unit is continuing its research in order to facilitate ongoing investigations.

8. COMMERCIAL CRIME

During the first six months of 1997, a total number of 28 928 cases involving R1 704 760 363⁽¹⁾ were reported to the Commercial Crime component of the SAPS's National Detective Service. During the corresponding period in 1996, 28 252 cases involving R1594324448 were reported, with 26 100 cases involving R1 733 365 884 and 25 087 cases involving R2 754 064 133 being reported in 1995 and 1994 respectively.

The figures depict an increase of 2.4% (or 676 cases) when cases reported between January and June 1997 are compared to those reported during the corresponding period in 1996, as opposed to an increase of 8.2% (or 2 152 cases) recorded between 1995 and 1996 and a 4.0% increase (or 1 013 cases) recorded between 1994 and 1995.

When the value involved in the cases reported from January to June 1997 is compared to that for the corresponding period in 1996, an increase of 6.9% (or R110 435 915) is evident, as opposed to a decrease of 8.0% (or R139 041 436) noted when the figure for 1996 is compared to that for the corresponding period in 1995 and a decrease of 37.1% (or R1020 698 249) recorded over the same period between 1994 and 1995.

The most prominent category of commercial crime during the period under review was fraud with 23 556 cases (81.4%), followed by forgery and uttering with 2 628 cases (9.1%) and theft with 768 (2.7%). The same pattern was observed for the corresponding period in 1996.

Of the cases recorded during the first semester of 1997, 12 319 (42.6% of the national total) were reported in Gauteng, followed by 5 464 (18.9%) in the Western Cape and 3 036 (10.5%) in the Eastern Cape. The province with the lowest number of reported cases is the Northern Cape with 603 (2.1%).

TABLE 6 - CASES REPORTED PER PROVINCE AS A % OF THE NATIONAL TOTAL : JANUARY TO JUNE 1997

When the (initially reported) values involved in cases country-wide are analysed, it is evident that cases in Gauteng represent 61.3% of the total monetary value involved, with cases reported in the Western Cape representing 14.1% of the same total and those reported in KwaZulu-Natal 10.9%.

TABLE 7 - THE VALUES INVOLVED IN CASES REPORTED PER PROVINCE DURING THE FIRST SEMESTER OF 1997

The work-load of Commercial Crime investigators once again increased during the period under review. On the positive side, however, the increase between 1996 and 1997 is 12.3% less than the increase observed between 1995 and 1996. On 30 June 1996, offices of the Commercial Crime component country-wide had 29 744 cases involving R7 273 932 477 on hand, the comparable figures for 30 June 1997 being 32234 cases involving R7389566 012. On the corresponding date in 1995 there were 24 644 cases involving R6 079 750 647 on hand. These figures boil down to an increase of 8.4% (2 490 cases) in the number of cases on hand and an increase of 1.6% (or R115633 535) in the monetary value involved between 1996 and 1997. Between 1995 and 1996 there had been an increase of 20.7% (5 100 cases) in the number of cases on hand and an increase of 19.6% (or R1 194 181 830) in the monetary value involved.

During the period under review a total number of 26 447 dockets were disposed of. Of these, 21567 dockets (or 81.5%) were disposed of without any court appearance (eg as a result of charges being withdrawn by either the complainants or the Attorneys-General, or cases being disposed of as unfounded or undetected), while 1 812 dockets (or 6.9%) were disposed of with at least one conviction each being achieved.

TABLE 8 - DISPOSAL OF DOCKETS : JANUARY - JUNE 1997

TABLE 9

Although approximately 80% of the dockets disposed of were disposed of without any court appearance, this percentage remained fairly constant between the period January to June 1997 (81.5%) and the corresponding period during 1996 (78.5%). Despite the fact that many experienced Commercial Crime investigators have left the SAPS for the private sector, the remaining investigators seem to have been able to control the situation. How long this control will last, only time can tell.

In addition to the cases reported to the Commercial Crime Component, 7 investigations in terms of Section 5 of Act 117 of 1991 were instituted by the Office for Serious Economic Offences (OSEO) between 1 January and 30 June 1997. These investigations concern crimes involving an amount of R400 million. The OSEO was investigating a total number of 29 cases involving an amount of R11 885.6 million on 30 June 1997.

Figures pertaining to the cases under investigation by the OSEO cannot be added to those pertaining to the Commercial Crime component of the SAPS's National Detective Service. Commercial crime cases investigated by the OSEO are sometimes first reported to the Commercial Crime component of the SAPS before being directly handed over to OSEO, depending on the nature of the cases. In other cases, the OSEO first completes its investigations before registering a crime with the SAPS in order to process a case through court. The cases investigated by the two agencies should therefore be regarded as two separate sets of statistics and should never be combined. The possibility of reaching wrong conclusions regarding the state of affairs pertaining to commercial crime in South Africa can in this way be avoided.

1. Unless stated otherwise, all monetary values contained in this report are based on initially reported values, that is the estimated potential loss and not necessarily the subsequent actual losses suffered. The monetary value involved in cases could therefore either increase or decrease substantially during the course of investigation.

9. SUGGESTIONS TOWARDS CRIME PREVENTION

Introduction

The prevention of crime and the active involvement of all role-players in it play a major role in the fight against crime. In this section and future quarterly reports attention will be focussed on preventive measures which can be taken to lessen the risks of the public falling victim to crime in an effort aimed at contributing towards a drop in crime levels. The first crimes to be treated in this manner are stock-theft and the hijacking of motor vehicles.

9.1 HIJACKING OF MOTOR VEHICLES

The hijacking of motor vehicles is still a major problem. This has a negative impact on the South African economy, the transport industry and society as a whole. Lives are lost during hijackings and the question on every citizen's lips is not only what can be done to secure oneself against a possible hijacking, but also what Government and the Police can do or, more importantly, have to do, to curb the increase in vehicle hijackings.

The following are some preventive measures Government, society and individuals can take to prevent hijackings:

A national awareness campaign against the hijacking of motor vehicles should be launched. Such a project has to be a combined effort between the SAPS, other Government Departments and the community. The aim of this programme should be to make everyone, including the Police, local authorities, manufacturers of vehicles and safety devices, vehicle park owners, insurance companies, the Automobile Association, car magazines, etc more aware of the danger of hijackings and possible ways to prevent this type of crime. This can be done through the media and by means of videos and audio cassettes, posters, promotions, competitions and even the Internet.

Even closer cooperation between the SAPS, vehicle manufacturers and the manufacturers of tracking devices such as Netstar Tracker, Unicode, etc is needed. The integration of a SAPS computer system with the computer systems of these organisations to form an integrated identification computer system to track down hijacked vehicles is an important step in this regard.

Better liaison between the SAPS and members of international crime prevention agencies, like eg the INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF AUTO THEFT INVESTIGATORS (IAATI), and attendance of conferences and seminars where expert knowledge is exchanged, as well as the provision of better training to investigators and the creation of crime prevention awareness, should be facilitated.

The community and the private sector can play an important role in the combating of vehicle hijackings by, for instance, making people aware of the fact that persons witnessing this type of crime can increase the chances of apprehending suspects by noting the hijackers' features, dress and a description of the other vehicles possibly involved, before reporting the matter to the police as quickly as possible.

Inputs from insurance companies, other affected bodies like vehicle manufacturers and the general public may contribute towards a meaningful attempt at combating vehicle hijackings. The perception that crime prevention is only a task for the Police is a major obstacle to the successful combating of crime.

The improvement of Police-community relations in order to increase the public's confidence in the Police will encourage members of the public to pass on useful information to support investigations.

Preventive actions have to be implemented to address new patterns emerging with regard to eg modus operandi employed by hijackers. These include, for example, hijackers impersonating police or traffic officials, the use of yellow vehicles with flashing blue lights resembling those of the Police, and criminal access to police uniforms and appointment certificates. The public has to be aware of this new phenomenon in order to be vigilant.

The vehicle freight industry can assist the combating of this type of crime by addressing the following issues:

The renumeration of drivers and their involvement in management and decision-making should be reconsidered. Drivers should become part of the solution and not part of the problem. Furthermore, drivers have to be issued with adequate identification cards to identify them when they are stopped by members of the SAPS.

The transport industry should not hesitate to use legal means to secure their property. It is of the utmost importance that employees be screened, as it has been found that the modus operandi employed in committing this type of crime often involves collusion by drivers or personnel employed in the freight industry. Fleet management can play an integral part in addressing this issue.

The community, acting in concert with the motor vehicle industry and organisations like Business Against Crime, can support efforts by the authorities to improve the judicial system and to address eg the following issues:

• The easy granting of bail to vehicle hijackers.
• Sufficient sentences to act as a deterrent against crimes like hijacking.
• Other practical measures can include the following:
• An improved "hijacking hotline" between the SAPS, radio stations and the public should be available to anybody witnessing a hijacking.
• A stricter and more practical border control system should be implemented.
• Anti-hijack equipment should be installed as standard equipment in all new vehicles.
• Robots should be programmed to act as four-way stop streets (ie switched to flashing yellow mode) after a certain time at night, especially in so-called "hijacking hot spots".

Measures that can be implemented by individuals to prevent hijackings:

• Motorists should ensure that their vehicles are always in a good and roadworthy condition and that the petrol supply is sufficient to reach their destination. Stopovers in deserted areas should be avoided.
• Motorists should beware of suspicious-looking accident scenes or road-blocks, as these could easily be a set-up, especially on isolated roads.
• Women and the elderly are considered to be soft targets. These people should not drive alone, especially at night.
• An effort should be made to travel in convoy whenever a group of people is travelling to the same destination.
• One should never drive under the influence of alcohol. Drunken drivers are easy targets for hijackers.
• All doors should be locked, even while driving.
• Stay in the centre lane while driving to avoid being easily forced off the road.
• When stopping at a traffic light or intersection, enough space should be left between one's own vehicle and a vehicle in front to enable a quick departure.
• People should be cautious of persons bumping into their vehicles from the rear at intersections. This could be a trick to get one out of one's vehicle to take down accident details. Rather proceed to the nearest Police Station to note the details down there.
• If parked in a parking garage or parking lot, look out for anyone or anything suspicious before approaching the vehicle. If one gets a feeling of being watched, one should return to the business visited and ask someone to escort one to the vehicle, or call the Police.
• As many carjackings occur at petrol stations, one should avoid filling up at stations in crime-ridden areas, especially at night.
• Do not pick up hitchhikers or strangers - it can cost one's life.
• Use freeways rather than quiet streets when travelling through crime-ridden areas.
• Driveways at home should be approached with caution and one should be on the lookout for strange vehicles or loiterers.
• Driveways should be sufficiently illuminated.
• Hijackers have been known to jam automatic gate opening devices. If such a gate at home refuses to open, one should drive to the nearest police station and ask for assistance.
• When faced by an armed attacker, do not try to be brave. Do not argue with the hijacker and do not make any sudden moves. Get away from the vehicle as fast as possible and do not try to apprehend the hijacker.
• Above all, if there is no escape, do not resist. One's life is worth more than one's vehicle.

9.2 STOCK-THEFT

Stock-theft is a priority crime in most provinces of South Africa except Gauteng. The loss of livestock not only has a negative impact on the economy at large, but is especially traumatic for the farming community and presents a direct threat to their economic survival.

It is therefore necessary to supply stock-farmers with hints they can utilise to prevent or assist the SAPS in combating stock-theft. The following preventive hints largely concentrate on practical suggestions which can be implemented on farms and were compiled in cooperation with the Stock-theft Unit at National Detective Head Office and the Eastern Cape CIMC office.

Paddocks

• Paddocks should be patrolled over weekends by farmers or appointed farmhands. This serves as a deterrent to potential stock-rustlers and increases the chances of finding evidence and scenes of crime before too much time has elapsed.
• Where public roads pass next to paddocks, all stock in the vicinity of fences should be moved a reasonable distance away from the road, especially at night.
• In the planning of paddocks, the forming of corners next to roads should be avoided, as these are ideal for driving stock into for loading purposes.
• The tethering of vicious guard dogs at kraals can be considered.
• Stock watering places close to public roads have to be visited often, as stock tend to congregate in such areas and may therefore be more vulnerable to stock-thieves there. Tracks of thieves are also likely to be trampled upon in such areas.
• All gates of paddocks bordering on roads should be locked with proper chains and locks. Tight control should be maintained over keys in order to prevent theft or duplication. Labels identifying which locks they fit should not be attached to keys, but code numbers used instead. Chains should be welded to the straining-posts. Gates are often loosened at the hinges. To avoid this from happening, these should also be welded and regularly checked.
• "Short-cuts" or footpaths across property which strangers might use without farmers' knowledge should be avoided.
• Sisal plants may have more uses than only serving as a drought crop. Sisal can be planted in the corners of existing paddocks to discourage their use for the cornering of animals. Sisal can also be planted to discourage unwanted footpaths.
• Ordinary paraffin lamps can be placed in paddocks at night. It should be kept in mind that employees talk among themselves and prospective stock-rustlers will soon realise that such lights are left unattended in the paddocks. However, the illumination of kraals always serves as a good deterrent.
• Loading-ramps in paddocks or on farms away from direct supervision should be kept locked or obstructed at all times when not in use.
• Ostriches are known to serve as a very good deterrent against potential stock-thieves, while "tame" black wildebeest are also known to scare off potential intruders.

Fencing

• Farmers should keep all fences and gates in proper repair to protect their livestock. Investigating officers sometimes waste much time investigating stock-theft cases involving animals which had merely strayed because of poor fencing.
• Although expensive, electrified fences, electronic sensors and alarms can be very effective against stock-theft.

Stock-posts

• Farmers should avoid stolen animals from being hidden on their property. Cattle-posts serve as ideal overnight stopovers to hide stolen stock. Unknown stock found at such posts should immediately be reported to the SAPS.
• Reliable farmhands should be stationed at posts and have to count the animals every morning. Missing stock should be reported immediately.
• Herdsmen should be provided with two-way radios to facilitate effective communication.
• If employees at stock-posts possess their own animals, a good preventive measure against stock-theft with suspected involvement of employees is to allow the animals to mix and graze together.

Marking of stock

• Many court cases are lost because of disputes regarding the proper identification of animals. If an animal is marked with a registered brand or tattoo, disputes will be avoided. Employees should also properly mark their stock, preferably by branding. The numbers of stock with different marks on a given property should be properly determined. Tattoo marks are preferred to ordinary ear marks and clippings. An effort should also be made to identify the brands and tattoos employed by neighbours. The Stock-theft Units' work is impeded when stock are marked by other methods or not marked at all.
• When attending auctions, farmers should be on the look-out for stock with their own brands or those of their neighbours.

Counting of stock

The necessity of a proper stock-register cannot be emphasised enough. As much detail as possible should be committed to paper. A properly kept stock-register will also serve to convince a magistrate that a farmer is in control of his stock-counts and knows what is going on with regard to his/her farm.

Employees

• In considering applications for employment, enquiries should be made at previous employers to establish the real reason why an employee had left his previous work. Enquiries should also be lodged at the SAPS to determine whether the applicant has a criminal record.
• Farmers are encouraged to employ herdsmen who are not only reliable, but also at least able to count.
• Farmers are encouraged to keep name lists detailing every worker and all other people living on their property. Particulars of relatives on other farms or in towns should also be kept. As much detail as possible should be noted down (ID number, name, surname, previous work address, addresses of next of kin and a photograph).
• Farmers are encouraged to follow up all information or rumours pertaining to stock-theft on their farms and in tho district concerned. Employees should be properly rewarded when information regarding any irregularities are provided by them.
• Cemeteries have on occasion been used for the burial of hides of stolen stock, even from other farms.
• Employees should be involved in the management of farms by way of participating management techniques. Employees should be given joint responsibilities in order to make them feel part of the farm and its management as a business.
• Own discretion should be used in involving employees in efforts to prevent stock-theft. Involvement may lead to a growing sense of responsibility among employees and increase trust between employers and employees.
• An informer network should be created among employees, as employees would much rather inform employers, whom they know, than unknown police officials.

Relationship between farmers and the SAPS

• Problems should be discussed with members of the SAPS during farmers' association meetings and SAPS crime conferences.
• Farmers should not hesitate to give any information to the police, even if they consider it as unimportant.
• Farmers should at all times report all stock-theft cases occurring on their property immediately. The longer the delay, the lesser the possibility of achieving success. In the event of animals reported to the SAPS to have been stolen being recovered, the investigating officer or Stock-theft Unit should be informed immediately
• It often happens that stock-theft cases have to be withdrawn due to a lack of interest or reluctance shown by some complainants to attend court proceedings. This should not happen.
• Scenes of crime should be secured. Farmers should refrain from disturbing or removing anything from the scene of a crime or from trying to investigate crimes by themselves. Important evidence could in this way be destroyed.
• Tracks found on the scene of a crime and which could be relevant to the case at hand have to be protected from rain, wind, animals and people. Tracks should not be followed by farmers, but rather be left to a police dog. Employees should also not be sent to look for tracks
• Cut fences should not be repaired before wire samples had been taken. Chains and locks which had been cut should also remain in safe keeping.
• Slaughtered carcases should not be removed before meat samples had been taken and the scene photographed.
• Farmers should make a habit of noting details pertaining to scenes of crime and communicate these to investigating officers. The various techniques employed by stock-thieves on a given property should be studied and recorded. This information could be used in the planning of patrols.
• Farmers should not take the law into their own hands when searching for or catching stock-thieves.