Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has a wide range of documented effects. It directly causes death and disability for some people infected. However, disruption to essential health services, resources allocated to mitigation and therefore away from essential health service delivery, and the overall impact on the economy and society must also be considered within the response to COVID-19. Understanding the magnitude of all of these effects is an essential part of developing mitigation polices.

Several epidemiological models have been created to assess the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services caused by COVID-19 on morbidity and mortality from conditions other than COVID-19 illness. This guide presents models that have been used to assess these indirect impacts. The effects have been studied in various settings, using a variety of models.

The guide is intended for people who need to understand what the models say, their construction and their underlying assumptions, or need to use models and their outcomes for planning and programme development and to support policy decisions for a country or region.

Of course, an overview of models on COVID-19 is a moving target. Modellers create new models and they revise and improve established ones. Since the field is rapidly developing, it is important to note that modellers may have to overcome limitations or concerns that may be voiced here about approaches. Thus, the document may be revised to reflect these changes if such changes occur.

This document provides an overview and description of models from a technical point of view. The focus is on what the various models do, how they do what they do and the underlying assumptions on which the models are based. The document includes modules on modelling the disruptions caused by COVID-19 to the essential health services of specific health areas or conditions.

Report by the World Health Organization