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Polity
Article by: Bradley Dubbelman
Published: 06 May 2010
Sudan: Postelection Report
 

Introduction




Incumbent President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, current head of the National Congress Party (NCP), has won Sudan's first multiparty election in 24 years. Despite claims by the opposition of fraud and election rigging, as well as an opposition boycott of the poll, al-Bashir won 68% of the vote. Salva Kiir, leader of the former rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), has been declared President of the semiautonomous government of south Sudan, with an overwhelming 92,99% of the vote.

 

In the face of these claims of fraud and electioneering by the opposition to the NCP, the international community has stopped short of calling the election fraudulent, but has come out saying that the process failed to live up to international standards. Further, despite al-Bashir's International Criminal Court indictment over war crimes and crimes against humanity, the international community says that it will work with the Khartoum government on preparations for the upcoming referendum scheduled for January 2011, in which the south will choose whether to cede from the north, or remain part of a united Sudan. United Nations (UN) secretary-general Ban Ki-moon even commended the Sudanese people's participation in the election, despite numerous challenges. He said that the largely peaceful elections demonstrated the Sudanese people's commitment to democracy.

 

Implementing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement




Although marred by the opposition boycott and speculation on vote rigging, the election is nevertheless seen as an important step in implementing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed in 2005. The terms of the CPA dictate that southern Sudan will hold a referendum to decide whether they will cede from the north. Many southern Sudanese, however, see the referendum as an end point, with the recent election as a stepping stone toward their independence.

 

North-south relations have soured in recent times over Khartoum's alleged role in the Darfur crisis. Further, the perceived fraudulent elections have only compounded the lack of trust between the two factions. Adequate preparations for the referendum therefore remain vital in restoring long-term peace to the region. Issues such as the north-south border demarcation and the management of oil in the region are, therefore, vital to the process leading up to the referendum. Agreement will need to be fostered and facilitated between the two sides prior to the poll, to ensure any form of long-term peace and stability.

 

Despite fears that the referendum may not happen, owing to a perceived northern reluctance to grant the south independence, al-Bashir has vowed that the vote will go ahead as scheduled in January 2011.

 

The Government of National Unity




The Government of National Unity (GoNU) formed in accordance with the 2005 CPA, is to be dissolved, according to the local media reports. The GoNU consisted mainly of the NCP (52%) and the SPLM (28%) along with other smaller parties. Although the government symbolises unity between Sudan's long-time warring factions, in reality, the coalition has been marked by tension between the old foes, as well as the NCP's tendency to dominate the decision-making process within the government, consequently marginalising the southern and western areas, particularly Darfur, a factor seen as contributing to one of the primary causes of the Darfur rebellion.

 

According to sources, a new government will be formed this month, along with the swearing in of Presidential election winner al-Bashir. The effect that this new government will have on Darfur remains to be seen.

 

Tension in Darfur




Since the April elections, tensions have been rising in the Darfur region, resulting in disagreement between the negotiating factions working towards peace. The country's most powerful rebel movement, the Justice and Equality Movement (Jem), has since suspended peace talks, running in Doha, with the Sudanese government. The rebel movement argues that the Sudan government has continued its violent and aggressive campaign against the civilian population, as well as against the movement's ground forces in the Darfur area. Further, Jem accuses the government forces of bombing rebel-held positions in western Darfur.

 

Further, the rebel movement has laid blame on the international community by accusing the hybrid United Nations/African Union peacekeeping force, known as Unamid, of turning a blind eye to the government's supposed aggression. Unamid has since denied any wrongdoing, by saying that they did not have any troops in the area. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have denied mounting any offensives in the remote border town.

 

According to the SAF spokesperson, Alsoarmi Khaled, the armed forces are "totally committed to the cessation of hostilities deal signed in Doha." The SAF went on to say that they remain committed to the Darfur ceasefire agreement, arguing that Jem has fabricated the accusations in order to stop the Doha process, under a false pretext.

 

Future Prospects

 

Following the first multiparty election held in 24 years, and just prior to a secession plebiscite in January 2011, Sudan finds itself in a politically, economically and socially sensitive period, where peace and democracy are on a knife edge. Warring factionalism and political mistrust are manifest in the country's social structure. To ensure long-term peace and stability, it would be reasonable to assume that independence and self-rule for southern Sudan is critical. It is, therefore, essential that the upcoming referendum occurs, as accorded by the CPA.

 

A number of vital issues, however, still need to be urgently dealt with, such as the agreement on the geographical positioning of the north-south border, the terms and conditions of oil extraction and refinement, as well as the operational terms of the referendum. Negotiation is vital to foster agreement on these issues between the north and south.

 

It is important that the Doha peace talks on Darfur get back on track, and for the north and south to engage in bilateral talks on the referendum process. The international community has an important role to play in fostering the negotiation processes by bringing all relevant parties to the table and creating an environment of healthy debate and negotiation. Further, Unamid needs to create a nonviolent atmosphere on the ground, thereby preventing hiccups and stumbling blocks in the negotiating processes, which is so vital for the future of Sudanese peace and stability.

 

Main Sources

 

TimesLive. Opposition rejects result of rigged polls: Sudan. (April 27, 2010).
Mail & Guardian. After Sudan vote, battle for unity begins. (April 28, 2010).
VOA News. SPLM official denies agreement to accept Sudan's election results. (April 20, 2010).
Reuters. US faults Sudan election but will work with victors. (April 20, 2010).
BBC. Sudan delays landmark poll result. (April 26, 2010).
Reuters. Sudan's troubled elections open up new challenges. (April 26, 2010).
AllAfrica. Sudan: "Too big to fail". (April 25, 2010).
UN News. Sudan: Ban stresses need for peaceful resolution of any electoral disputes. (April 27, 2010).
Mail & Guardian. Sudan elects Omar al-Bashir as president. (April 26, 2010).
Sudan Tribune. No coalition government will be formed after elections, says Sudan's Nafie. (April 29, 2010).
Sudan Tribune. Sudan resumes demarcation of north-south border. (April 29, 2010).
Sudan Tribune. Sudan elections turned into a lie that cannot live. (April 29, 2010).
Sudan Tribune. Sudanese army say still committed to ceasefire deal in Darfur. (May 4, 2010).
Polity. Defeated Sudan candidate says armed, makes demands. (May 4, 2010).
Sudan Tribune. Sudan National Unity government to be dissolved, Bashir's swearing in set for late May. (May 4, 2010).
Polity. Darfur rebels suspend peace talks, blaming clashes. (May 3, 2010).