The SACCI Business Confidence Index (BCI) continued its gradual recovery in April 2016 as it has been the fourth consecutive month that the SACCI BCI improved on the previous month albeit only marginally. The BCI came in at 82.5 in April 2016 and although still 7.4 index points below the April 2015 level, it improved by 1.3 index points on March 2016.

Month-on-month progression in the real business environment was evident in April 2016 with five of the seven real sub-indices improving on March 2016. However, the financial climate was slightly less positive than in March 2016 as the real cost of financing increased by default due to lower inflation. The month-on-month changes of the sub-indices of the SACCI BCI were more positive in April 2016 with seven sub-indices positive, three neutral and three sub-indices negative. Five real activity sub-indices and four financial sub-indices contributed positively or remained neutral to the BCI in April 2016 with real activity indicators more encouraging. The largest positive monthly contributions came from merchandise import volumes, the weighted rand exchange rate, and manufacturing output.

Ten sub-indices made negative year-on-year impacts on the BCI in April 2016. Two of the seven real activity sub-indices had a positive year-on-year impact on the BCI in April 2016 while one of the six financial sub-indices had a positive year-on-year effect.  The largest negative year-on-year impacts on the BCI came from the rand exchange rate, merchandise export volumes, share prices and new vehicle sales.

Several distractions like the posturing in preparing for local government elections, the subdued global and domestic economic growth business has to deal with and the presence of tight financial conditions have demonstrated businesses’ ability to cope with challenging situations and remain resilient. Although the relative low level of business confidence remains a matter of concern to SACCI, the discouraging economic situation in South Africa calls for a resolve that should as is the case with business confidence, gradually turn circumstances around by enhancing economic growth with a resilient private sector to assist.

 

Issued by SACCI