The eradication of extreme poverty is a key component in the post-2015 Millennium Development Goals process and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. This paper uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore this goal and finds that many African states are unlikely to make this target by 2030, even when modelling a package of aggressive poverty reduction interventions. In addition to country-level targets the authors also argue in favour of a goal that would see Africa as a whole reducing extreme poverty to below 15% by 2030, and below 4% by 2045.

About the authors:

Sara Turner is a Research Associate at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, where she has been involved in research on health, human development, and international politics. She holds a master’s degree from the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver.

Jakkie Cilliers is the Executive Director of the Institute for Security Studies. He is an Extraordinary Professor in the Centre of Human Rights and the Department of Political Sciences, Faculty Humanities at the University of Pretoria.

Barry B Hughes is the John Evans Professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, at the University of Denver. He initiated and leads the development of the International Futures forecasting system and is Series Editor for the Patterns of Potential Human Progress series.

This paper was made possible with support from the Hanns Seidel Foundation. The Institute for Security Studies is grateful for support from the members of the ISS Partnership Forum: the governments of Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the US.