Political calculus

2nd August 2013 By: Terence Creamer - Creamer Media Editor

Political calculus

“Learning by doing” has become a favourite phrase of Minister in The Presidency Responsible for the National Planning Commission Trevor Manuel when talking about the next phase of the National Development Plan (NDP).

In his June 13 Budget Vote address, Manuel argued that, while “we can only grow from learning”, there can be no “learning if we do not implement”. If the strategies contained in the NDP fail, they will be addressed, but “we cannot wait for a perfect plan – such a thing does not exist”.

At first blush, his message seems to have filtered through to the African National Congress (ANC), and especially to secretary-general Gwede Mantashe, who offered a typically blunt assessment of the current toing and froing over the NDP: “We can’t debate until we are blue in the face, we must implement.”

However, Mantashe’s implementation remedy – that of establishing a task team by President Jacob Zuma to align the various economic and infrastructure initiatives – is somewhat perplexing.

True, top-level intervention is needed to end the current uncertainty surrounding South Africa’s developmental roadmap. Indeed, if that is what the task team’s mandate is, then it should be supported.

However, it could be argued that the proposal is nothing more than a calculated effort to kick the can down the road until after the 2014 election – thus delaying what would be a contentious and divisive debate on the NDP within the ANC-led alliance.

In other words, the establishment of a task team in a context where government is already awash with coordination bodies only makes sense if analysed through the prism of Alliance politics.

The ANC’s partners, the South African Communist Party and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), have expressed misgivings about the contents of the plan. But Cosatu, in particular, is so divided that a frank discussion on the NDP could be seriously destablising.

From a country perspective, by contrast, it would probably be far better for the Alliance to have it out and for compromises and sunset clauses to be agreed so that NDP implementation can proceed in the absence of the current sniping.

But the seasoned Mantashe is, no doubt, conscious that such an engagement is the last thing an already weakened ANC needs, particularly ahead of what is shaping up to be the most open electoral contest since 1994.

True, few believe that the ANC majority will be usurped. But there is a good possibility that its majority will be materially narrowed, with a range of established and emerging political forces contriving to shave the pillars of ANC hegemony.

Having already learned by many years of doing, Mantashe is implementing – but his implementation plan has far less to do with spurring economic growth and development than it does with jerry-building some form of Alliance of unity ahead of the elections.