We are now a month away from the Mangaung national conference of the African National Congress (ANC) and, at the time of writing, it is still not clear whether Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe is a presidential candidate. If he does eventually enter the race, will it not be too late? Or is his reticence precisely what will catapult him to the presidency of the ruling party?

Political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi discusses the various scenarios.