KZN: Belinda Scott: Address by KZN MEC for Finance, during the KwaZulu-Natal Provincial adjustment budget 2016/17, KZN Legislature (24/11/2016)

25th November 2016

KZN: Belinda Scott: Address by KZN MEC for Finance, during the KwaZulu-Natal Provincial adjustment budget 2016/17, KZN Legislature (24/11/2016)

KZN MEC for Finance Belinda Scott
Photo by: GCIS

A. Economic review and outlook and the fiscal implications

As indicated by the National Minister for Finance in his Medium Term Budget Policy Statement Speech on 26 October 2016, the South African economy is still under severe pressure. National Treasury has already revised the country’s growth expectation to 0.5 per cent for 2016, down from 0.9 per cent projected in February this year. This is slightly above the 0.4 per cent and 0.1 per cent projected by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), respectively. The economy is, however, expected to rise moderately to 1.7 per cent in 2017.

Similar to the national projections, the provincial economic outlook is showing a subdued trajectory, but is expected to grow at 0.4 per cent this year and 0.8 per cent in 2017. Sluggish economic growth means fewer employment opportunities for our people. It further lowers tax revenue for government to fund the many competing needs the country is faced with, while at the same time being a severe impediment to debt stabilisation.

The SARB composite business cycle indicators, as well as both business and consumer confidence indicators remain low, while higher inflation has reduced household purchasing power.

South Africa’s debt is due for review in December 2016 by the rating agencies. Fitch and S&P Global Ratings have the country’s credit grading at one notch above junk, while Moody’s has it at two notches above non-investment grade. Since economic growth is a major factor in rating agencies' decisions regarding a country’s credit rating, there is a possibility of downgrades in credit ratings which will result in the rising cost of debt.

It is therefore quite clear that we are tabling our 2016/17 Adjustments Estimate in a time when the economic environment is uncertain and also unusually difficult. While preparing a budget is always about making choices, a difficult economic environment sharpens and focusses the need to weigh up our priorities in line with the funding available.

Minister Gordhan indicated in his speech that a Joint Action Plan for fiscal consolidation has been agreed to with the provincial MECs for Finance, and this includes the following:

In this province we have embraced this Action Plan and, in fact, in many ways we have led in the implementation thereof. Our cost-cutting measures have been in place since 2009/10 and, in many instances, are stricter than those contained in the national guidelines simply because we need to channel more and more funds into service delivery. We have made great strides in managing our personnel expenditure through carefully assessing the affordability and criticality of posts before they are filled. Our rationalisation of public entities review is gaining momentum, and the provincial Executive Council have committed to finalise this project in the next 12 months. Minister Gordhan applauded the good progress in expenditure management in provinces and congratulated the provincial leaders for taking the tough steps to remain within budget.

To quote Abraham Lincoln: “Be sure you put your feet in the right place, then stand firm.”

To ensure sustainable public finances, we as government need to curtail our spending and remain within the fiscal envelope. That is the bottom line.

We need to continuously strive to protect our social services, while enabling the economic drivers, such as investments in economic infrastructure, to be sustained or increased.

Our focus remains ensuring a better life for all, despite these economic hardships.

It is within this economic and fiscal context that this Adjustments Budget is tabled.

B. Proposed Adjustments

Section 31 of the PFMA determines that provinces must table an Adjustments Budget annually, and that this be tabled within 30 days of the national Adjustments Budget being tabled. Adjustments are made to the Main Appropriation in terms of Section 31 of the PFMA which stipulates under what circumstances budget adjustments may be made. These include the appropriation of funds that have become available to the Province, the shifting of funds between and within votes, the utilisation of savings under the main division within a vote for the defrayment of excess expenditure under another main division within the same vote, commonly referred to as virements, Treasury-approved roll-over requests for those departments who could not spend the entire amount voted by the Legislature in that particular year, to name a few.

Provincial Treasury has held various bilateral meetings with the departments and public entities over the last few months to assess in-year spending patterns, as well as to discuss any spending pressures that may have arisen since the Main Budget was tabled in March 2016. Due to the tight fiscal position that currently exists, largely because the fiscal consolidation cuts, as well as the fact that National Treasury has not provided any funding toward the above-budget 2016 wage adjustment, the province was able to accommodate only a few additional funding requests.

B.1. Financing of the Adjustments Budget

KZN continues to maintain a cash positive position, but the fiscal consolidation cuts, together with various in-year pressures experienced by the various departments, are beginning to place pressure on the provincial cash balances. Provincial Treasury will continue to closely monitor the cash balances, as well as the spending pressures projected by some departments, to ensure that the province does not go into overdraft as was the case in 2008/09.

Both Education and Health have shown significant projected spending pressures and the Executive Council has therefore directed that these two departments prepare credible plans that show how their projected over-spending will be reduced to zero. Provincial Treasury is working with these departments to ensure that their cost containment plans are credible.

As a result of the fiscal consolidation plan implemented by National Treasury, the province remains resolute in the implementation of the cost-cutting measures. These include the freezing of vacant posts, with critical posts being permitted to be filled, but only with the express approval of the Premier and the MEC for Finance, after consultation with the Executive Authority concerned.

The net financial position of the province determines the amount of funds available for allocation in the Adjustments Budget and I will elaborate on this shortly. This Adjustments Budget will also deal with changes made to KwaZulu-Natal’s allocation by National Treasury, the movement of funds between departments, as well as the suspension of funds from this year’s budget to be allocated back in the new financial year.

C. Net Financial Position

Table 1 is a snap-shot of the adjustments that are included in the Adjustments Budget that is being tabled today.

The table provides an analysis of the province’s net financial position, taking into account:

What this table does not take into account, is the additional funding allocated to KwaZulu-Natal in the National Adjustments Budget. These national adjustments are discussed in more detail later. Various other adjustments, such as the movement of funds between departments, are also discussed later.

The following provides the detail of each line contained in the Net Financial Position:

C.1. 2015/16 net surplus

Line 1 of Table 1 begins with the 2015/16 Adjusted Budget, compared to the Audited Actual Expenditure for that year in Line 2, resulting is an audited year-end under-expenditure of R653.569 million in Line 3.

Line 4 shows the 2015/16 Own Revenue Budget compared to the Actual Revenue collected in that year shown in Line 5, resulting in an audited year-end over-collection of Own Revenue of R265.349 million (Line 6).

Line 7 reminds us that the province had budgeted for a surplus in 2015/16, but Members are reminded that this full amount of R857.913 million (consisting of the 2015/16 Contingency Reserve of R750 million plus the fact that not all surplus funding from 2014/15 was allocated during the 2015/16 Adjustments Estimate – i.e. R107.913 million was left unallocated and therefore remained in the Provincial Revenue Fund) was used to help absorb the Round 1 and 2 cuts that were implemented against the provincial fiscus over the 2016/17 MTEF. As such, this amount is not available for allocation in the 2016/17 Adjustments Estimate.

When the 2015/16 revenue was collected, some departments requested that certain parts of the revenue over-collection be allocated back to them in the 2015/16 Adjustments Budget. As such, an amount of R139.888 million of the 2015/16 revenue over-collection was already allocated back to various departments in the 2015/16 Adjustments Estimate relating to the following as shown in Line 8:

The province therefore ended the 2015/16 financial year with a positive net financial position or surplus of R779.030 million as shown in Line 9 which is available to fund various roll-overs and provincial commitments.

C.2. Unspent conditional grants from 2015/16

A portion of this surplus relates to unspent conditional grant funding and therefore needs to be removed from the calculation, as unspent conditional grant funding has to be returned to the national fiscus, unless approved for roll-over, according to DORA. As such, Line 10 indicates the amounts that remain unspent in the Provincial Revenue Fund, but have been approved by National Treasury to be rolled-over for spending in 2016/17 with respect to two conditional grants, as follows:

Line 11 indicates that a total of R16.716 million has to be returned to the National Revenue Fund in terms of 3 conditional grants, as these were not approved for roll-over by National Treasury:

Line 12 then indicates the funding available for allocation after taking into account the conditional grant roll-overs and surrenders, with this being R732.999 million.

C.3. Provincial commitments since tabling of the 2016/17 MTEF budget

There are a number of provincial commitments that have arisen since the 2016/17 MTEF budget was tabled in the Legislature, which require funding. These commitments amount to R896.430 million, as indicated in Line 13 and the detail is provided below.

It should be noted that in some instances, the funds will only be allocated to the receiving department in the 2017/18 MTEF as this is when the funds are required. Where allocations will only be made after the 2016/17 Adjustments Estimate, this is indicated as such (these amounts will be formalised when the 2017/18 MTEF budget is tabled, and not in the 2016/17 Adjustments Estimate). These specific commitments are mentioned in this memorandum, though, as they are funded from the funds that have become available when calculating the province’s Net Financial Position. The various provincial commitments are as follows:

The balance of R151 million is being suspended from Vote 4: Economic Development, Tourism and Environmental Affairs (EDTEA). These amounts are being taken from the budget allocated for the Small Business Growth Enterprise (SBGE) in the amount of R61 million and R39 million from the KZN Property Development Holdings in 2016/17. This amounts to R100 million in total in 2016/17. In 2017/18, the balance of R51 million will be removed from these entities as well.

C.4. Provincial Roll-overs

Line 14 indicates the provincial equitable share roll-overs that have been approved, with these amounting to R168.927 million. The detail of these roll-overs is provided below:

After funding the provincial commitments and roll-overs, the funding available becomes overdrawn by R332.358 million as shown in Line 15.

C.5. Allocation of funds received in Provincial Revenue Fund in 2016/17

Some of the amounts allocated to departments in the 2016/17 Adjustments Estimate, as I have described, are possible as these funds were paid into the Provincial Revenue Fund during the 2016/17 financial year. The funds that were paid into the Provincial Revenue Fund amount to R34.503 million, as shown in Line 16, and consist of the following:

C.6. Contingency Reserve

Line 18 reminds us that KZN has budgeted for a surplus or Contingency Reserve in 2016/17, with this amounting to R750 million.

Line 19 indicates that the province will then have a positive Net Financial Position of R452.145 million once all these allocations have been made. This is substantially lower than the Contingency Reserve we were left with when we tabled the 2015/16 Adjustments Estimate. It is suggested that these funds be held in reserve bearing in mind the spending pressures that are currently being portrayed by the Department of Health.

D. Suspension of Funds

The suspension of funds is either when funds are suspended from one Vote and allocated to another Vote, or when funds are suspended from a Vote in this financial year for allocation back to the same Vote in the next financial year. The suspensions being undertaken in this Adjustments Budget are as follows:

E. Revisions to equitable share and conditional grant allocation

The 2016/17 Adjustments Budget sees no additions being made to the Provincial Equitable Share by National Treasury.

In fact, as I have mentioned, National Treasury has advised that they are not funding any portion of the 2016 wage adjustment shortfall in 2016/17, nor will the carry-through costs be funded over the 2017/18 MTEF. While the provincial fiscus was able to accommodate the shortfall in 2016/17, it is highly unlikely that the carry-through costs will be funded by additions to departments’ budgets. This means that departments will have to fund the carry-through costs over the 2017/18 MTEF through internal reprioritisation. This will put pressure on departments’ already strained budgets over the 2017/18 MTEF. The largest impact of this will be felt by Education and Health due to the labour-intensive nature of their work.

National Treasury has advised of some changes being made to the province’s conditional grant allocations:

F. Technical Adjustments/Internal Reprioritisation

Other than these adjustments, the Adjustments Budget also contains virements and shifts undertaken by departments in re-organising their budgets in-year.

As a reminder, a virement is the utilisation of savings or under-spending under one main division/sub-division/economic classification of a vote toward the defrayment of excess expenditure under another main division/sub-division/economic classification of the same vote. That is, the original purpose of the funds has changed.

A shift on the other hand is the re-allocation of funds incorrectly allocated during the 2015/16 Estimates of Provincial Revenue and Expenditure budget process, or where funds are shifted due to the re-classification of expenditure. This also includes functions shifted within a vote to follow the internal transfer of functions. That is, the original purpose of the funds remains the same.

Important to note in terms of Section 43 of the PFMA is that Legislature approval is required for any decrease in funds specifically and exclusively allocated for a particular purpose, any decreases in Capital, as well as decreases in Transfers and subsidies to another institution. Any such proposed decreases are highlighted in the 2016/17 Adjustments Estimate which I am tabling today.

In terms of Treasury Regulation 21.1.1, any gifts, donations or sponsorships of amounts up to R100 000 may be approved by the relevant Accounting Officer. Where the amount exceeds R100 000, Legislature approval must be sought. In instances where such gifts, donations and sponsorships exceed R100 000, these have been included separately in the 2016/17 Adjustments Estimate, as well as being shown as a separate item in the Adjustments Appropriation Bill.

G. Conclusion

The Department of Health and, to a lesser degree, the Department of Education are showing significant spending pressures according to the 2016/17 mid-year budget performance reports, with Health projecting to be over-spent by R1.103 billion and Education by R87.455 million. As a result, the Executive Council has directed that these two departments prepare credible cost containment plans that see their projected over-spending for 2016/17 reduced to zero.

Provincial Treasury is working with these two departments in preparing these cost containment plans. It is essential that this spending pressure be controlled as, without these plans, the provincial fiscus is at risk. The Contingency Reserve that remains is not sufficient to protect the provincial fiscus if Health and Education over-spend their budget at currently projected levels.

I am confident, though, that we will be able to manage these pressures.

To quote Vince Lombardi: “The price of success is hard work, dedication to the job at hand, and the determination that whether we win or lose, we have applied the best of ourselves to the task at hand.”

In conclusion, I convey my sincere appreciation to the Honourable Premier, my Honourable Provincial Executive Council colleagues, as well as the Honourable Members of the Ministers’ Committee on the Budget (MinComBud) for their assistance in finalising this Adjustments Appropriation Bill.

The support received from the Finance Portfolio Committee, under the capable chairmanship of Hon. Nkosi, is also acknowledged with appreciation.

Lastly, I would like to thank all the Treasury officials for ensuring that the budget documentation we are tabling today is accurate and of high quality.

It is my honour to formally table the KZN Adjustments Appropriation Bill, 2016, for consideration in this House. I look forward to the debate on this Bill.

Thank you.