Despite sterling growth in some countries, a number of African countries are caught in a vicious cycle of violence, chronic poverty, inequality and exclusion. These ‘more fragile’ states are on a slow trajectory to long-term peace and development. Using the International Futures system (IFs) data analysis and forecasting tool, the monograph provides a long-term forecast of 26 fragile African countries. The forecasts suggest that in the long-term ten countries on the continent will continue to remain fragile into the mid-21st century. Others, however, have a good chance of embarking on a pathway from fragility to middle-income conditions by 2030 or possibly 2050. The monograph concludes with a list of recommendations.

Written by Jakkie Cilliers and Timothy D Sisk, Institute for Security Studies

This monograph was made possible through funding provided by the Open Society Foundation of South Africa (OSF-SA). The ISS is also grateful for the support of the following core partners: the governments of Norway, Sweden, Australia and Denmark.