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Vital vision

24th February 2012

By: Terence Creamer
Creamer Media Editor

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An anecdote shared recently by well-known international economist Danny Leipziger on the importance of having an economic vision and pursuing growth-supporting infrastructure development as part of the vision is instructive for South Africa. More so, I would argue, following President Jacob Zuma’s infrastructure-heavy State of the Nation address, which was delivered against a backdrop of tepid growth, a subdued growth outlook and where the potential for this economy to be negatively affected by shocks from elsewhere remains worryingly real.

Speaking in Johannesburg recently, the former World Bank VP who is currently international business professor at George Washington University and Growth Dialogue MD illustrated his point by relating a story from South Korea in the 1970s.

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At the time, government was keen to build a road from Seoul, in the north, to the southern coastal city of Busan, as part of it economic development vision for the country. One of the potential financiers, however, was US development assistance organisation USAid, which insisted on a cost-benefit analysis before agreeing to put up any capital.

The analysis was designed to assess traffic flows so as to establish whether or not there was sufficient demand to ensure that the economics of the project made sense. Clocking stations were diligently set up to measure the number of trucks travelling along the existing roads.

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But because the Korean government had an economic vision that spanned well beyond the 1970s, they had no intention of allowing the study to derail a project that was core to that vision. Their response? The authorities hired truckers to drive a circular route, using back roads, so as ensure that a steady flow of trucks was continuously clocked.

Based on these false, but seemingly substantial, traffic volumes, it was concluded that the 426 km Seoul–Busan Expressway, which commemorated its fortieth anniversary in 2010, was indeed an economically sensible venture to pursue. And that’s also how it turned out. The country’s oldest and most travelled freeway is now credited by some with having paved the way for the remarkable economic advancements achieved by the Asian country in the latter half of the twentieth century.

The story illustrates not only the importance of having a plan, but also having the courage and wherewithal to stand by it in the face of opposition and ensure that implementation actually takes place.

In South Africa, there is no shortage of a plan. Currently, the New Growth Path is the driving policy framework and the National Planning Commission’s draft planning report, which covers a far longer horizon, has also been well received.

Where we continue to fall short, though, is in having a single-minded focus on delivery. Hopefully, the spotlight that is now on infra- structure will have the same galvanising effect that the immovable kick-off date of June 11, 2010, had for delivery of the FIFA World Cup projects.

Failure to repeat those project management successes will seriously dampen this country’s growth prospects at a time when there are not too many other sources to provide a fillip.

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