Introduction

Between April 11 and April 13, 2010, Sudan will hold its first multiparty election in 24 years. The election date, stipulated in the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended some 25 years of civil war between the Arab-dominated north of the country, and the non-Arab south, is seen as a litmus test as to whether lasting peace can be achieved in the oil-rich nation.

An interim government of national unity (GNU), in which power is shared between the two main political parties - the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) and the National Congress Party (NCP), currently governs the country. The CPA makes provision for an executive authority, which is held by the President, Omar Hassan al-Bashir (of the NCP), who is also Prime Minister, Head of State, and Head of government. Further, the agreement stipulates that the position of first Vice-President be held by a candidate nominated by the SPLM/A. This position is currently held by Salva Kiir.

Electoral system

The National Legislature consists of a National Assembly divided into a lower house and an upper house, known as the Council of States. The lower house consists of 450 members with a power-sharing formula (pending elections) that allows the ruling NCP 52% representation, the SPLM 28%, and other northern and southern parties 14% and 6%, respectively. The Council of States consists of two representatives from each of the country's 25 states, as well as two observers from the Abyei region.

The President is elected by an absolute majority through a two-round system. The Council of States' 50 members are elected by an indirect vote to serve a six-year term.

The National Assembly is elected by popular vote to also serve a six-year term, with 60% of the seats elected by a plurality vote in single member districts, 15% elected under closed-list proportional representation and the final 25% elected under a closed-list proportional representation system from lists that contain only women. All constituencies correspond with the 25 states, where the threshold is 4% in each.

Culture

Sudan is one of the most diverse and multicultured countries on the continent. Although the two major cultures are Arab and Islamic and non-Arab and non-Muslim, there are multiple tribal subdivisions that consist of many different language groups. Through years of divisive civil war, the Sudan has become largely geographically polarised along lines of North and South, as well as economically, where the Arab-controlled northern region is the hub of economic development, while the southern areas have been largely marginalised.

The northern areas cover most of the country and are where the most urbanisation and development has occurred. The north is host to the capital and seat of government, Khartoum. The southern region has a much smaller population and is largely rural, relying on a subsistence economy, as a result of years of economic and political marginalisation. Further, southern Sudan has been embroiled in conflict that has led to large-scale destruction and a humanitarian disaster that has resulted in mass human displacement. It is estimated that the perpetual conflict in the south has resulted in over two-million deaths and more than four-million people displaced, resulting in regional tension, particularly with neighbouring Chad.

These differences have, to a large degree, been manipulated by politicians during the civil war and have manifested particularly in the latest of Sudanese conflicts, the Darfur crisis. Described by Human Rights Watch as consisting of three overlapping circles of conflict, Darfur is seen as a religious conflict, a conflict over scarce land, as well as the site of a proxy war between Sudan and its western neighbours Chad.

Independence

Sudan officially achieved independence from Britain and Egypt on January 1, 1956, under a provisional constitution that was vague on the issues of State structure, as well as a federal/unity structure. The Arab-led Khartoum government interpreted the constitution by governing in terms of a unity system, thus excluding the southern factions from political participation. The lack of a federal system led to a mutiny by southern army officers, which effectively catalysed a north-south civil conflict that would last for 17 years.

The political roots of the conflict lie in Arab aspirations of unifying the country along the lines of Arabism and Islam, despite the intense opposition of non-Muslims and other marginalised people situated in the southern regions. The conflict has had a spillover effect on Sudan's neighbours, as they either shelter displaced refugees or serve as operating bases for proxy rebel movements. This has had a destabilising affect on the entire region.

During the 1960s, north Sudan's policy of Islamicisation intensified as it denied the south any form of self-determination, which only served to strengthen and galvanise southern opposition. Southern leaders, however, eventually split into two factions; one that sought a federal solution and another that argued for self-determination and eventual secession from the north.

Gaafar Muhammad Nimeiri and Socialism

In 1969, a group of communist and socialist officers, led by Colonel Gaafar Muhammad Nimeiri, seized power in a military coup. After consolidating power, Nimeiri adopted a policy of socialism (as opposed to Islamism) for the country and proclaimed a policy that granted a degree of autonomy to the south. Subsequently, Nimeiri himself became the target of alienated communists in a failed coup that led to a massive retaliatory purge of communists. The Soviet Union consequently withdrew its support from the Nimeiri regime.

Having alienated both left and right factions, Nimeiri looked for support from Sudan's regional neighbours, particularly through peace agreements with Ethiopia and Uganda. The agreements made provision for the withdrawal of support for the opposition rebel movements in an attempt to end the country's numerous proxy wars. Further, Nimeiri initiated negotiations with the southern groups and signed the Addis Ababa agreement that granted a measure of autonomy to the south.

The Addis Ababa agreement, however, lacked the political backing from both the secularist faction and the northern Islamic parties. Nimeiri saw their support as vital to his political survival and, therefore, embarked on a policy of reconciliation with all the religious and ethnic opposition forces.

The Discovery of Oil and the Second Sudanese Civil War

Although Nimeiri pursued a policy of national reconciliation, it commanded little political commitment from those it attempted to reconcile. The northern Arab hardliners saw it as an obstacle to Islamicisation, while the southern population was suspicious of Nimeiri's intentions.

The peace agreement faced major obstacles when Chevron discovered oil in the southern region in 1979. The discovery meant that the northern government had renewed interest in the southern region and therefore changed its stance on the notion of granting the south any form of autonomy. Subsequently, Nimeiri abolished the line between the north and the south and declared Arabic the official language and, more importantly, transferred control of southern armed forces to the central government. The move was a unilateral action that went against provisions set out in the Addis Ababa peace treaty and effectively plunged the country back into civil war in January 1983, when southern soldiers rebelled to show their distaste for a transfer to northern rule.

Nemeiri's ultrahardline policy of Islamicisation in Sudan was controversial, even among the Muslim sector. Legislation meant that Shari'a punishments, such as public lashings for alcohol possession and amputations for theft, were implemented. Non-Muslim Sudanese saw the government imposing a strict form of religion and, in turn, interpreted it as a threat to the survival of their belief system.

Public discontent with the Khartoum government, political repression, as well as poor economic conditions meant that Nimeiri was overthrown by a popular uprising in 1985. The incoming transitional government was headed by General Suwar al-Dahab, who, almost immediately, suspended the 1983 constitution and disbanded Nimeiri's Sudan Socialist Union.

Elections were held in 1986 and saw a civilian government take office, aiming to create a lasting peace with the south through active negotiation. However, any attempt to grant the south any religious or political freedom was interpreted by the Arab hardliners as a threat to Arab supremacy and, thus, vehemently opposed. As a result, a faction within the Islamic army, led by General Omar al-Bashir mounted a successful coup and installed the National Islamic Front (NIF) into office. The NIF remains the custodian of power today. The new power centre meant that there was a greater invigoration in the implementation of Islamic policies and legislation in the south that had the effect of intensifying the north-south conflict.

As the conflict wore on, a majority of the country grew increasingly alienated from the northern centre and eventually combined to form a large rebel force, known as the SPLM/A, to oppose the NIF. The combining of the different rebel and tribal forces within the SPLM/A prompted the NIF to try and manipulate tribal divisions within the movement in an attempt to weaken them. The policy, however, led to increasing sympathy for the rebel movement, which, thus, garnered support from Ethiopia, Eritrea and Uganda, resulting in a number of proxy wars on the Sudanese borders.

The End of the Civil War

Despite various unsuccessful peace attempts, orchestrated by regional actors, during the 1990s, the CPA was the accord that ultimately bought a fragile peace between the north and the south.

After months of negotiation between the NIF and the SPLM/A, the agreement was eventually brokered on January 9, 2005. It established a new GNU, stipulating power sharing between the two sides. It also provides for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of troops from southern Sudan, and the repatriation and resettlement of refugees. The CPA stipulates that, by the end of a six-year interim government-ruled period, elections will be held across all levels.

Once the CPA was ratified, al-Bashir was sworn in as President of Sudan with the SPLM/A leader, John Garang, installed as First Vice President. A new constitution was drawn up, declaring Sudan a "democratic, decentralised, multicultural, multi ethnic, multireligious and multilingual State".

On July 9, 2005, Garang died in a helicopter accident, paving the way for Kiir to take over the position of First Vice President in conjunction with his position as Commander-in-Chief of the SPLAM/A.

The CPA has been the mainstay of Sudanese peace in recent times, However, many of its action plans have yet to be implemented and institutionalised. A number of commissions have been established to aid Sudan's postwar recovery, as well as to ensure the country's economic recovery and social reconciliation. To a large degree, these commissions are heavily dependent on international aid and support, specifically the monitoring of the north-south Border Commission, which the United Nations Mission in Sudan, or UNMIS, is charged with monitoring. Enforcing and implementing the CPA remains one of Sudan's greatest challenges.

Darfur

Towards the end of the civil war there were a number of attacks on civilians in the western region of Darfur, aimed mainly at non-Arab tribes. Subsequently, a rebellion against the northern government broke out, spearheaded by the SPLM/A and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), which was largely represented by non-Arabised black African Muslims.

In opposition to the rebel movements, the northern government armed local rival tribes and militias known as the Janjaweed, mainly comprised Arabised Muslims. With the direct support of the government forces, the Janjaweed would routinely carry out attacks on civilian populations in the Darfur region, leading to the death of hundreds of thousands of people, as well as the displacement of about two-million people.

Despite the deployment of the African Union (AU)-UN Hybrid operation in Darfur in 2004, violence has continued in the region, prompting some prominent international actors to label the violence as "genocide".

After intense international pressure, the SPLM/A and the Sudanese government entered into negotiations and eventually signed the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA), in May 2006. Unfortunately, the DPA was not all-inclusive, as some rebel groups refused to recognise the agreement. This led to the conflict intensifying shortly thereafter. August 2006 saw the Sudanese government launch a major offensive into Darfur that prompted Unamid to increase its peacekeeping forces in the area.

On March 4, 2009, International Criminal Court (ICC) chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo, issued an arrest warrant for al-Bashir for crimes against humanity, as well as war crimes. The charges, however, stopped short of adding genocide to the list. In response to the ICC indictment, al-Bashir expelled 13 international nongovernmental organisations, and shut down three local aid organisations. The move severely hampered humanitarian efforts in the region and served to exacerbate the crisis.

Despite numerous attempts by the international community to broker an agreement that would enforce peace in Darfur, they only succeeded in facilitating a ceasefire between the Sudanese government and the JEM on February 20, 2010. Further, the agreement opens the way for more comprehensive negotiations in the near future. The rebel movements have since united under the Liberation and Justice Movement, which will participate in the next round of negotiations.

Upcoming Elections and Future Challenges

With the first democratic elections in some 24 years, there are still a number of challenges facing the Sudanese nation. Perhaps the most challenging is ensuring a peaceful and transparent poll, which, given Sudan's violent history, is no easy feat. The fragile peace between the north and the south rests on the effective implementation of the CPA. This implementation is therefore vital in preventing the country from slipping back into a civil crisis that has destabilised much of East Africa. The CPA is seen, largely by the international community, as a basis to kick start economic development in the country, especially the marginalised southern and western regions. The reconstruction and development measures, stipulated in the agreement, encourage sociopolitical stability with the hope of garnering foreign investment.

A second challenge facing the country is to urgently address the desperate humanitarian crisis in the country, especially in the Darfur region. Despite recent progress made in negotiations between the government and rebel groups, as well as between the Chad and Sudanese governments, the situation remains critical. Entrenching a lasting peace is therefore vital to ensuring Sudan's long-term stability.

The southern question is also an issue that remains high on the country's agenda. Southern Sudanese rebels have long fought for autonomy and secession from the government's hard-line Islamic policies. As stipulated by the CPA, southern Sudan will vote in a referendum to determine whether the southern states should secede permanently from the north. However, there have been disputes over the proportion of the vote required for independence, with the government calling for at least 75% of the vote in favour of secession to guarantee independence, while the south advocates a simple outright majority. Credible elections and stability will thus pave the way for a peaceful referendum scheduled for January 2011, as it will foster agreement between the two factions and hopefully induce a degree of compromise, leading the way to future agreement.

The credibility of the upcoming election has been questioned in recent times. Fears of ballot manipulation by the ruling NCP, have induced fears that the poll might be fixed in favour of the ruling party, leading to threats of withdrawal from opposition presidential candidates. In addition, al-Bashir has threatened to expel all international election observers after appeals by election observer the Carter Centre to postpone the election date, citing logistical problems and the Darfur crisis. Al-Bashir has also threatened to abandon the January, 2011, referendum if southern rebels do not partake in the upcoming poll.

With just under two weeks to go before the election, the leading candidate from the SPLM, Yasir Arman, withdrew his candidacy for the presidency. Arman was seen as al-Bashir's main opponent in the poll. Although the SPLM cites electoral irregularities and continued conflict in Darfur as the reason for their boycott, speculation revolves around the notion that the move was done in the context to stabilise the political conflict in the country so that the CPA can be effectively implemented in order to ensure the January 2011 referendum which is seen as the south's ultimate goal.

Conclusion

Despite the CPA calling for the upcoming elections, there are fears that the poll may be divisive and have an adverse effect on the peace process. As mentioned, the upcoming April poll is an important step in the process leading up to the referendum that will decide on southern Sudan's independence, which is seen as a possible "final solution" to Africa's longest civil conflict.

Whether or not al-Bashir will allow such southern independence is another issue, especially with the southern states being oil rich, with strategic economic importance for both factions. Regardless of whether or not the south gains independence, it will be impossible to enjoy complete autonomy. Although most of the oil reserves are situated in the southern regions, the north possesses the means and technology to refine the crude oil, as well as a pipeline that transports the oil north. North-south economic cooperation is therefore inevitable, which makes reconciliation vitally important to the future wellbeing of the country.

One of the major concerns regarding the near future of Sudan is whether the NCP will honour the agreements made in the CPA and the DPA. Both agreements were signed hesitantly by the NCP under heavy international pressure. Further, the northern Sudanese government has arguably honoured no commitments made with the south since independence. It is therefore critical that the terms of the CPA be enforced by the international actors and their peacekeeping forces, as the NPC needs to be held accountable for keeping their promises in order to create a lasting peace. In this view, bodies such as the UN and AU need to take more decisive steps in the enforcement of the CPA and attempt to create greater cooperation between the north and the south.

Further, these international bodies will do well to ensure a transparent, free and fair election, as there is a general feeling among all Sudanese that the election will be rigged by the NCP, which are experienced campaigners when it comes to electioneering. The road to peace in Sudan is a long one. However, a peaceful and credible election would provide a valuable stepping stone to reconciliation in the war-torn country.

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