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25 May 2012
 

Denis Worrall is Chairman and founder of Omega Investment Research, an international marketing and investment promotion business with offices in Cape Town and London, established more than twenty years ago. To see how Omega can help your business visit www.omegainvest.co.za

 
 
   
 
 
Article by: Denis Worrall

International reactions to China and Russia's invitation to South Africa to join the BRIC group of countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) have varied greatly. The founder of BRIC, Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chairman Jim O'Neill, who coined the term for the grouping, pooh poohed the event. He says that South Korea is a stronger candidate for BRIC membership than South Africa. South Africa's economy, with a gross domestic product of about $285 billion, according to O'Neill is more in the league of the lesser developing economies, such as South Korea ($833 billion), Turkey ($615 billion) and Mexico ($875 billion).


The official South African reaction, as might be expected, is hugely positive. Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, the Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, described it as "the best Christmas present South Africa could get". And South Africa's International Marketing Council said the invitation affirmed South Africa's role as the gateway to Africa. "The BRIC invitation can expect to boost investment and trade opportunities for the country, as it has done for the other four states comprising the informal grouping." According to the International Monetary Fund, the BRIC group will account for 61% of global growth in three years. The Marketing Council said the fact that South Africa had the opportunity to be affiliated to the group underlined two main points: the country was recognised as a developing economy of significance; and as the gateway to Africa.


Two personal observations. Firstly, in respect to size, while South Africa as a country is much smaller in all respects to the smallest of the existing BRIC countries – Brazil - it is a mistake to look at South Africa in isolation. South Africa, with the most diversified economy on the African continent, is a major player in the southern Africa region and the centre-point of trade, tourism, investment and infrastructure development. In fact, in evaluating South Africa one has to take into account that African markets, until very recently, thought to be too small to bother with, are now reaching respectable levels even in global terms. And nowhere is this better illustrated than in southern Africa.


Ten years ago the Angolan economy's value was less than $5 billion. It is now a $70 billion economy. And this is repeated across southern Africa in, for example, Botswana, Mozambique, Zambia and Tanzania. The key point is that this region is now achieving economic levels of activity that can no longer be dismissed as insignificant in global terms – and at the heart of this economic development is South Africa.


Add to this South Africa and Africa's dramatically increased future tourist potential as a result of the highly successful 2010 World Cup in South Africa. Aside from dramatically changing perceptions of South Africa and Africa, that event resulted in greatly expanded infrastructure, new airports and roads, etc.


My second observation is that South Africa in joining BRIC has the opportunity of benefiting from the experience of one of the internationally most successful emerging markets, namely Brazil.


Eight years ago a newly elected president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faced the daunting challenge of saving Brazil from economic and financial collapse. And his accomplishments, possibly most significantly in agriculture, which are recognised world-wide, were achieved in terms of four pillars. As an international commentator puts it:


First, he recognised that there were no inherent contradictions between financial stability, economic growth and improved social conditions. His approach was to explicitly embrace all three within a well-defined multiyear framework.


Secondly, he understood the imperative of clear and timely communication. He was open about the serious challenges facing Brazil and the sacrifices required.


Thirdly, after clearly setting out the strategic economic vision for the country, he delegated implementation to a carefully chosen set if technocrats;


And fourthly, he understood the importance of institutional integrity and clear accountability. This was most evident in his respect for the operational autonomy of the Central Bank. It was also crucial to promoting wide respect for fiscal responsibility.


South Africa can certainly learn from Brazil, and it is hoped that in rubbing shoulders within the BRIC group that happens.

Edited by: Denis Worrall
 
 
 
 
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Omega Investment Research chairperson Denis Worrall
 
Omega Investment Research chairperson Denis Worrall
 
 
 
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