1995 House of People's Representatives Election

2000 House of People's Representatives Election

2005 House of People's Representatives Election

Introduction

One of the most historic countries in Africa, Ethiopia is the only African country considered to have escaped European colonisation. Despite a brief Italian occupation during World War Two, in what was then Abyssinia, Ethiopia has to a large degree been able to maintain its "Africanism" in a continent that is associated with colonial rule for a large part of the twentieth century.

In recent times, the East African country has experienced a great deal of upheaval. A two-year war with neighbouring Eritrea between 1998 and 2000 cost over 70 000 lives and had telling economic impacts on the largely rural subsistence population. The incumbent Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has dominated the country's political landscape with an iron fist, with reports of the arrest of opposition candidates, torture and intimidation, as a strategy to maintain it's stranglehold on the country's governing structures.

The upcoming legislative election holds little promise for opposition parties, with stringent laws regulating the registration and existence of political groups, as well as restrictive media regulations. A fear of a government crackdown on opposition supporters and leaders resonates among the Ethiopian public in a pre-election environment that offers little promise of significant political change.

The Derg and the Rise of the EPRDF

The downfall of iconic Haile Selassie's Ethiopian empire occurred in 1974, following civil unrest, when a socialist/military organisation, "The Derg", came to power. The brutal revolution saw the Derg execute 59 members of the royal family and ministers and generals in Selassie's government. Selassie himself was strangled in the basement of his own palace in 1975.

The Derg ruled Ethiopia from a socialist viewpoint and were strongly influenced by Soviet cold war ideology. With the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union, compounded by floods, droughts, famine and sectoral unrest, the regime was effectively driven out in 1991. The incoming regime was made up of the rebel movement, comprising the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front, as well as other ethnically based opposition movements, to form the EPRDF.

As a result of the overthrow of the Derg, the EPRDF, along with the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), among others, established a new government named the Transitional Government of Ethiopia (TGE), comprising an 87-member Council of Representatives formed under a national charter that functioned as a transitional constitution. In 1992, the OLF withdrew from the transitional government, and were followed by the Southern Ethiopia People's Democratic Coalition in 1993.

A New Constitution

The EPRDF and other members of the TGE subsequently went about consolidating their power and pledged to oversee the formation of a multiparty democracy through a constituent assembly election in 1994, which subsequently adopted the constitution of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia in December 1994, under which the country's first legislative elections were planned in May and June 1995.

Most parties boycotted these elections on the grounds of fears of election rigging, which ensured a landslide victory for the EPRDF and their President Meles Zenawi. Although opposition parties boycotted the process, international and nongovernmental actors declared the election free and fair. As a result of the election, the EPRDF formed the government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia in August 1995.

Ethiopia/Eritrea conflict

In May 1998, Eritrean forces attacked the Ethiopia/Eritrea border in an attempt to capture disputed territory within Ethiopia. The attack sparked a two-year war between the two countries that cost both sides millions of dollars and resulted in 70 000 lives lost and mass human displacement. Although the war was fought over territory, trade and currency disagreements preceded the attack.

The war eventually came to an end on June 18, 2000, with the signing of the Algiers Peace Agreement, brokered by the international community, which resulted in minor border changes. It was the Eritrea/Ethiopia Boundary Commission, established under the Algiers Agreement, that awarded the disputed territory Badme to Eritrea, a decision that was the immediate cause of conflict. In 2002, after deliberations, the agreement was made binding and final, which both parties accepted. According to a ruling by the International Commission of the Hague in 2005, Eritrea broke international law in 1998 when it attacked Ethiopia, triggering the broader conflict.

The conflict proved to have socially and economically debilitating effects on both countries, and caused regional instability in the Horn of Africa. During the war, fighting spilled over into neighbouring Somalia as both sides tried to outflank one another. Further, a proxy war emerged as both governments financed and supported opposing movements in the respective countries.

2000 Elections

The 2000 Ethiopian elections showcased the dominance of the ruling EPRDF on the country's politics. The party and its members won a total of 478 out of the 547 seats competed for in House of People's Representatives. The rest of the seats were divided between independent parties and other smaller entities.

According to international observers and other nongovernmental organisations, the election was generally considered free and fair. However, serious irregularities, such as intimidation, ballot stuffing and other forms of electioneering, were reported in the southern regions of the country. The results, however, stood and the EPRDF maintained its stranglehold on Ethiopian politics.

2005 Elections

The prelude to the 2005 House of People's Representatives election proved to be the most free and fair that Ethiopia has conducted in its short electoral history with regard to pre-election campaigning by political parties. The environment allowed for greater media airtime for the opposition and the freedom to conduct political rallies. Unfortunately, this freedom did not last very long as electoral irregularities lead to a complicated review system and eventually violent public protest in June 2005.

Despite a loss in ruling party seats to 327, opposition parties regarded the elections as fraudulent and called for a boycott of Parliament, as well as a programme of civil disobedience in protest of the result. The protest lead to a crackdown by Ethiopian security forces, which arrested a number of prominent opposition leaders, as well as journalists and human rights advocates. In addition, tens of thousands of civilians were detained in rural detention camps for up to three months as punishment for the protest.

In December 2005, the government charged 131 opposition, media, and civil society members with capital offences, including "outrages against the constitution". Eighteen months later, however, most of these cases were pardoned with a majority of leaders retaking their positions in Parliament. Despite the return to Parliament, the ruling party and opposition have engaged in little dialogue, with the security crackdown having had a polarising effect on Ethiopian politics.

Recent Developments

In April 2009, the Ethiopian government again cracked down on the opposition by arresting 40 individuals affiliated with an external political party known as Ginbot 7. The individuals were arrested on suspicion of their involvement in a terrorist plot to assassinate government leaders. Ginbot 7 was founded in the US and advocates a change in government in Ethiopia "by any means". The Ethiopian government is seeking the death penalty for those accused.

Electoral System

According to the 1994 constitution, Ethiopia is a federal republic with an executive branch and a legislative branch. The executive branch of government includes a president, a Council of State, and a Council of Ministers. Executive power resides with a Prime Minister. The President is elected by indirect vote to serve a six-year term.

The current President of Ethiopia is Girma Wolde-Giorgis. The current Prime Minister is Meles Zinawi.

On the legislative front, there is a bicameral Parliament consisting of the House of Federation with 100 seats, with members elected by indirect vote to serve five-year terms. The second branch is the House of People's Representatives, with 547 seats elected by plurality vote in single member constituencies to serve five-year terms. These seats are apportioned to each region in proportion to its numbers of millions of citizens.

Future Prospects

The credibility of the upcoming May 23 elections is a huge concern for the local population and international observers alike. Many living in opposition to the incumbent fear another violent crackdown similar to that of the postelection environment in 2005. Since the EPRDF was challenged in 2005, they have worked hard to monopolise power and narrow the political space to rule absolutely at the expense of democracy.

The independence of the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) is in serious doubt, and is often seen as an extension of the EPRDF's arm to manipulate the election and entrench their power. Further, the NEBE is fraught with institutional and capacity problems that may well hinder the upcoming elections being free and fair. Another concern is that all local election observers have been appointed by the incumbent regime, while European Union and African Union observers are doubtful participants.

The lack of media independence is another factor that will limit the campaigning ability for opposition parties, while the judiciary, as well as the internal security forces are used as tools by the EPRDF to enforce its programmes and policies on the population.

The upcoming election faces some serious obstacles and difficulties. Overcoming these difficulties remains the primary concern for opposition parties, while the ruling EPRDF looks set to win the election and secure another term in power.

Main Sources

AddisVoice. Boycotting election 2010 as an option. (April 1, 2010).
ECADF Ethiopian News. Ethiopia 2010 and the players. (May 10, 2010).
US Department of State. Background note: Ethiopia. (April 8, 2010).
IFES. Upcoming elections: Ethiopia. (May 2, 2010).
IFES. Election profile: Ethiopia. (May 1, 2010).
Ethiopian Review. Ethiopian election 2010 and its challenges. (November 23, 2009).
CIA World Factbook. Africa: Ethiopia. (April 21, 2010).