Despite having been a dominant social and economic theme since the load-shedding crisis of 2008, South Africa’s electricity balance remains precarious and, unhappily, we begin 2014 knowing full well that few of the uncertainties that prevailed five years ago have been resolved.

As was the case back in 2008, there is only blurry visibility of the country’s preferred generation pathway. The Department of Energy has released a draft update of the Integrated Resource Plan for period 2010 to 2030. However, much work still needs to be done before this revised plan – which incorporates more modest and, hopefully, more realistic demand-growth assumptions – is officially recognised as the country plan.

The key issue to be resolved is whether South Africa should indeed proceed with a new nuclear build programme and, if so, at what pace and scale. But clarity is also required about the future renewables split, particularly between wind and solar; how domestic gas, including shale gas, should be incorporated in light of the uncertainties surrounding the resource base and the prospects for exploiting it in a way that does not place strain on the country’s water resources; and whether the exchange rate risks associated with regional gas and hydro- power schemes can be sufficiently mitigated to enable these to be more fully integrated as viable supply solutions.

The roadmap needs to make space for baseload investments by independent power producers (IPPs) while, in parallel, the regulatory loose ends surrounding the relationship between the IPPs and the transmission-network owner (be it Eskom, or a new entity) have to be dealt with decisively. Similarly, the sore that is the distribution system and its burgeoning investment and maintenance backlogs can no longer be left to fester.

Then there is the not insignificant matter of Eskom, its future role, its finances and its ability to deliver on the current build programme.

Adding to the malaise has been the surprise decision by Brian Dames to step down as CEO. This has left the board with the additional burden of having to find a new leader at a time when energies should be being focused on delivering Medupi, Kusile and Ingula. To be sure, the already dented credibility of the utility will be further damaged if the delayed schedule for the delivery of the first unit of the Medupi power station is pushed back any further from the already vague “second half of 2014” deadline.

Besides the build programme, priority also has to be given to preparing the business for the financial headwinds that are set to arise during the third multiyear price determination period, which runs to March 31, 2018 – Eskom has calculated that the financial gap will be R225-billion, R191-billion of which will arise in the latter three years of the determination period.

Without material progress on all these critical issues, South Africa will continue to struggle to convince investors, both foreign and domestic, that the country is worth a bet. Decisive steps are needed to inject the certainty required to transform electricity from being a drag on investor sentiment into a platform for the rebuilding of confidence.