Parliamentary Election Results

1994 Presidential election

1999 Presidential election

2004 Presidential election

2009 Presidential election

Introduction

As expected, the incumbent President Armando Guebuza of the Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (Frelimo), was able to retain his Presidency and increase his majority of Parliamentary seats. Support for the official opposition, Mozambique National Resistance (Renamo), fell drastically from previous election figures owing to a split within the party that led to the formation of the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM).

Frelimo was able to increase its majority from the 62,03% achieved in the 2004 Parliamentary election to 74,66% in the latest poll, which effectively gives the ruling party a two-thirds majority and the power to change the constitution. Renamo's support was badly affected by it's infighting, which led to factionalism and the subsequent emergence of the MDM. The opposition's parliamentary support dropped from 29,73%, in 2004, to 17,68%, which translates into a loss of 39 seats in the National Assembly. Despite the MDM gaining 3,93% of the vote, and eight Parliamentary seats, the main benefactor was Frelimo, which managed to substantially increase its Parliamentary dominance.

In terms of the presidential vote, Frelimo's Guebuza, achieved 75% of the vote, with his long-term opponent Afonso Dhlakama achieving 16,41%. The third candidate, Daviz Simango of the MDM, achieved 8,59% of the vote. The total voter turnout increased from 36%, in 2004, to 44,52%.
Electoral Fraud

With the release of the provisional results, on Sunday, November 1, indicating that Frelimo was on course to a resounding victory, Renamo cried foul, accusing electoral commission officials of distributing extra ballot papers to Frelimo supporters, enabling them to stuff ballot boxes. Since the release of the final results, Renamo has demanded that the elections be annulled and a transitional government be established to run the country until electoral laws are overhauled and a new election date can be set.

The MDM has also since described the elections as fraudulent but has stopped short of a call for an annulment of the results. Instead, the newly formed party has compiled a legal dossier to document electoral offences, which it intends to submit to the Attorney-General's office. Despite MDM leader Simango calling the process "democratically illegal", he has since congratulated Guebuza and wished the Frelimo party well in their governance, while seemingly pleased to have broken the bipolarity of the previous political system.

The Southern African Development Community has endorsed the election results saying that these reflect the true will of the people of Mozambique. The Commonwealth Observer Group has praised the conduct of the poll, however, it has criticised the electoral commission for excluding MDM candidates in certain constituencies.

Future Challenges

Mozambique's incoming regime under Guebuza, despite having the ability to change the constitution, is not expected to stray far from his policies of encouraging foreign investment as a strategy for local economic growth. By simplifying investment laws and easing foreign investment regulations, Guebuza is expected to press on with market liberalisation strategies.

With a new generation of voters (not born under the country's liberation struggle), come new and greater expectations. Guebuza and the ruling party will therefore be under greater pressure to expand economic growth -especially in adverse economic conditions, from a more youthful and politicised electorate that is not necessarily influenced by previous power struggles. The ruling establishment will consequently be judged increasingly on policy as opposed to historical significance.

Main Sources

AllAfrica - Mozambique: Renamo Rejects the Results (November 12, 2009).
AllAfrica - Mozambique: Election Results - Breakdown of Parliamentary Seats (November 12, 2009).
Mail & Guardian - Mozambique ruling party leads election results (October 31, 2009).
Polity - Guebuza re-elected in Mozambique election (November 12, 2009).
Polity - Mozambique's Frelimo set for two-thirds majority (November 2, 2009).
Polity - Mozambique opposition rejects partial poll results (November 4, 2009).
Polity - Pre-Election Report: Mozambique (October 23, 2009).
Xinhuanet - Observers say Mozambique general elections well managed (October 30, 2009).