This month Institue for Security Studies researchers in Addis Ababa and Dakar have produced country analyses on Somalia, South Sudan and Côte d’Ivoire, focusing on the introduction of Somalia’s new constitution, the inauguration of a new Federal Parliament and the election of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, as well as many remaining challenges; the status of the relationship between South Sudan and Sudan and the former’s ongoing challenges as well as some successes; and DDR, SSR and reconciliation issues in Côte d’Ivoire.
With regard to Somalia, the analyst focuses on emerging threats following the successful adoption of Somalia’s new constitution and the inauguration of a new president elected by the newly installed parliament. The analyst identifies the limited inclusiveness of the peace process, continuing threats by Al Shabaab, the inexperience of the civil service, rampant corruption and continuing clan-based loyalties as being among several factors that continue to undermine the intended stabilisation of Somalia.
On the subject of South Sudan the analyst observes that athough there has been a promising start to the new peace road map between South Sudan and Sudans, the government in Juba still faces numerous security challenges from within. The analyst notes the continuing violence and attacks mounted against the South Sudanese army by rebel forces and also points to the continuing economic pressures that confront this fledgling state. Despite breakthroughs in the signing of a number of important agreements between the two Sudans that include contentious security and border issues, much remains to be done.
The analysis of Côte d’Ivoire focuses on the recent attacks that highlighted many shortcomings of the Ivorian security architecture, which emerged from the post-elections crisis. The list of security weaknesses is long and includes a lack of basic training among newly integrated elements within the Forces républicaines de Côte d’Ivoire (Republican Forces of Côte d’Ivoire, FRCI), competition amongst the various intelligence services, failures in the chain of command, and a lack of coordination in responding to security threats. There is also a lack of integration and persistent mistrust between former Forces de Défense et de Sécurité (Defence and Security Forces, FDS) of the regime of Laurent Gbagbo and former Forces Nouvelles (New Forces, FN) which supported Alassane Ouattara, both of which now cohabit within the FRCI.
The analyst notes that some blind spots persist about the identity of the perpetrators of some of the attacks in Côte d’Ivoire, their exact motives and their sponsors and that although security sources say that these events do not have the potential to plunge the country back into crisis, they nevertheless highlight the urgency of implementing efficient disarmament, demobilization and reintegration and security sector reform (SSR) processes, as well as effective actions, in favor of both political and military reconciliation that go beyond mere symbolic actions.