https://www.polity.org.za
Deepening Democracy through Access to Information
Home / Opinion / Other Opinions RSS ← Back
Close

Email this article

separate emails by commas, maximum limit of 4 addresses

Sponsored by

Close

Embed Video

Nkandla Report: Options available to ANC and President Zuma

Public Protector Thuli Madonsela
Photo by Duane Daws
Public Protector Thuli Madonsela

25th March 2014

SAVE THIS ARTICLE      EMAIL THIS ARTICLE

Font size: -+

Public Protector Thuli Madonsela’s final report on the R246-million “security” upgrade of President Jacob Zuma’s private Nkandla home has put something of a rabid cat among the ruling pigeons only weeks before a general election for which the ANC’s support ratings have already fallen. What then are the possible responses available to Zuma and the ANC? What will be their consequences?

While, after careful consideration of the Public Protector’s (PP’s) report and after the state and Zuma’s legal experts have been consulted, they may find any number of avenues open to them, below are some of the more apparent options. These are:

  1. They can deal with it as the law and the PP’s report requires;
  2. They can respond partially as the law and the PP’s report requires, but opt to shift the blame to scapegoats;
  3. They can reject Madonsela’s report, stick by the findings of their own internal report compiled by an inter-ministerial task team, and further discredit and sideline Madonsela;
  4. Together with Option 3 they can try to remove and replace Madonsela as PP, shifting the focus away from Zuma to her.
  5. Any combination of the above.


Option 1: Responding as legally required

Dealing with the matter in terms of the requirements of the law and the recommendations in the PP’s report would entail responding in the National Assembly within 14 days and instituting appropriate actions. The latter may include conducting further investigations, dealing with all the culprits in appropriate ways, and establishing an amount that Zuma and/or his subordinates will pay back to the state.

Having done that, they would then ride out the storm until it subsides – probably the best and quickest way to make it go away, but not without seriously harming Zuma and the ANC’s standing in the public eye. As this process – if followed speedily – will only be wrapped up by early or mid-April at the soonest, it could have a very detrimental affect for the ANC in the general election four weeks later.

A plus factor for them could be that by abiding by the prescripts of the PP’s report and the law, Zuma may avoid having to answer to the criminal charges laid against him by the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). Also, as an election face-saver Zuma and/or some of his senior colleagues may apologise to the public which may score them some brownie points.

Option 2: Shifting the blame to scapegoats

From the comments of ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe and others in the ANC it appears quite likely that, as happened with the Guptagate affair, officials in government departments – and not the politicians responsible – may again be made the scapegoats that will have to pay the price.

Or a junior minister or deputy minister or former minister could be made the scapegoat. In the latter regard fingers have already been pointed at former public works minister Geoff Doidge and his former deputy, Hendrietta Bogopane-Zulu. Already in January the ANC’s national executive committee called for a “speedy investigation” into their alleged role in the Nkandla affair. Doidge received negative mention in Madonsela’s report, but so did Zuma’s close confidante, Police Minister Nathie Mthethwa.

This strategy has two benefits for the politicians: it spares them facing the consequences such as being fired or facing legal proceedings, and it deflects public attention away from the real culprits, thus in effect whitewashing them.

In terms of influencing public perceptions, at least two important outcomes could be achieved: (1) The prescriptions of the law and the PP’s report will at least have been partially satisfied; and (2) if officials such a director-general or deputy director-general are the guilty ones, or a junior or former minister, then surely Zuma or any of the other implicated ministers are exonerated. Not everybody will buy the latter, but the ANC and government will certainly punt it as gospel.

Option 3: Rejecting the PP’s report in favour of their own

This will be a case of preaching to the converted as only loyal disciples of the ANC will fall for it. But given the party’s numerical dominance, they could get away with it.

Everybody else will rather go with Madonsela’s report and reject the findings of the government’s own internal report compiled by an inter-ministerial task team as set up by the ministers of the security cluster. The latter is dominated by Zuma’s cronies from KwaZulu-Natal and headed by his close confidante and fix-it man, Justice Minister Jeff Radebe.

In following this course of action they will most likely try to further discredit Madonsela and her report and publicly indict her, thus shifting the blame focus away from Zuma to Madonsela. There is already much evidence that the ANC, even before the release of the report, opted for this strategy.

But such a course of action will expose Zuma to the criminal charges already laid against him, while more charges may well yet be pressed by others too. The issue could also be taken to the constitutional court, thus tying them up in high-publicity court cases before and after the elections. The damage could be big.

Option 4: Replacing Madonsela

The ANC may have been wishing for some time now to be rid of Madonsela as PP – perhaps one of the reasons why it is asking voters for a two-thirds majority in the elections so it can change the Constitution. Getting rid of her now could also help to delegitimise her Nkandla report and have it, and any of its potential consequences, put on hold.

But if the ANC wants to get rid of Madonsela and replace her with a PP that is an ally that can be trusted not to embarrass the ANC or the president, it has less than seven weeks in which to do so and be fairly certain of succeeding.

As the current Parliament has already risen for the last time before the May 7 general election, it will have to be recalled for a special session at which at least two-thirds of the members of the National Assembly have to adopt a resolution calling for the removal of the PP on the grounds of misconduct, incapacity or incompetence. If such a resolution is then adopted the President must remove her from office.

To replace her at least 60% of the members of the National Assembly have to support a recommendation to the president for appointment of a candidate nominated for Public Protector by a committee of the National Assembly proportionally composed of members of all parties represented in the Assembly.

At present the ANC – having won 65.9% of the vote in the 2009 elections -  is two MP’s votes short of the required two-thirds majority to remove Madonsela by itself, and will have to get at least two persons from another party to vote with it. Those two votes could potentially come from any of the Pan-Africanist Congress, Azanian People’s Organisation, Minority Front or the African People’s Convention all of whom have on occasion in the past sided with the ANC. None of the other parties represented in Parliament are likely to do so.

But if voting is by secret ballot, at this stage there might even be some in the ANC who may be angered by Zuma’s long history of questionable actions and may not vote in accordance with the party’s wishes, thus possibly denying it the required two-thirds vote. A level of dissatisfaction with Zuma in the ANC certainly seems possible judging by some past and present comments and actions coming from certain ANC quarters.

With the ANC’s recently released list of candidates for election to the National Assembly in the May 7 general election further seeking to consolidate Zuma’s power and control of the party through the inclusion of known Zuma loyalists, it may be prudent for the ANC to wait until after the elections with any move against Madonsela.

On the other hand, if the ANC waits until after the elections, it may find its majority slashed to below 60%, in which case it will neither be able to remove or replace Madonsela without the support of the opposition, support that is most unlikely to occur. In such a scenario Madonsela will remain in office for the final two years of her term, and her eventual successor will have to be approved by the opposition parties in the National Assembly. And in the meantime Zuma and the ANC will have to face the music in respect of the Nkandla report.

Impeachment

The ANC has already indicated it will try to block the DA’s call for Zuma’s impeachment and is therefore unlikely to agree to the recall of Parliament for that purpose. But if it should recall Parliament to remove and replace Madonsela, it will create an opportunity for the DA to table a motion for Zuma’s impeachment.

In addition, the ANC may have no choice in the matter as both in terms of the recommendations in the PP’s report and in terms of the law Zuma is required to respond in the National Assembly within 14 days, providing an opportunity also for an impeachment motion.

However, given the ANC’s majority, an impeachment motion will fail unless the unthinkable happens and about half the ANC’s members of Parliament vote with the opposition against Zuma.

Written by Stef Terblanche, Political Analyst & Editor, Africa-International Communications

Advertisement
To watch Creamer Media's latest video reports, click here
 
Advertisement

EMAIL THIS ARTICLE      SAVE THIS ARTICLE

To subscribe email subscriptions@creamermedia.co.za or click here
To advertise email advertising@creamermedia.co.za or click here

Comment Guidelines

About

Polity.org.za is a product of Creamer Media.
www.creamermedia.co.za

Other Creamer Media Products include:
Engineering News
Mining Weekly
Research Channel Africa

Read more

Subscriptions

We offer a variety of subscriptions to our Magazine, Website, PDF Reports and our photo library.

Subscriptions are available via the Creamer Media Store.

View store

Advertise

Advertising on Polity.org.za is an effective way to build and consolidate a company's profile among clients and prospective clients. Email advertising@creamermedia.co.za

View options
Free daily email newsletter Register Now