No matter who is appointed South Africa’s next Finance Minister – I personally hope Pravin Gordhan is willing to stay on – it will be important that the current momentum is sustained in three critical areas: reducing the fiscal deficit; pressing ahead with procurement reforms; and galvanising partnerships in support of a country plan that stimulates growth, creates jobs and reduces inequality and poverty.

On the first point, Gordhan was under undoubted pressure to allow the deficit to widen so as to create some breathing room for additional expenditure. However, any further slippage would have sent a bad signal, particularly in the context of growing populist rhetoric ahead of the May 7 elections.

More importantly, it could have created longer- term sustainability stresses in the form of higher debt levels – debt is not free and is about to get just that more expensive as interest rates rise. It should also not be forgotten that debt-servicing costs are set to escalate to nearly R115-billion this year, which is larger than the R78.1-billion budgetary allocation for the police, far bigger than the R43.4-billion set aside for child-support grants and dwarfs the R7.7-billion earmarked for health infrastructure.

In other words, South Africa has more or less exhausted the fiscal space it once had to sustainably introduce new safeguards to protect its most vulnerable citizens and stimulate the economy.

That raises the key issue of procurement reform. What is clear from the R1.25-trillion consolidated Budget is that South Africa is not entirely without means. There is money in the kitty and revenue collection has held up remarkably well in the context of the country’s below-par growth performance.

Few would disagree, however, with the observation that government is failing to ensure value for money. The expenditure reviews and procurement reforms being pursued should eventually help improve returns.

However, the actual implementation of better systems and protocols will depend materially on whether there is a commensurate upgrading of the management and skills levels across the civil service. A failure to match vision with competence will result in more of the same: misguided spending choices; unacceptably poor delivery; and ongoing maladministration and corruption.

Improved partnerships between government and civil society in the area of procurement could provide an important buffer against poor decision-making, nonprocedural contracting models and underhand dealings.

However, a far grander partnership is also needed to create the oxygen required to enable job-rich growth. That oxygen is confidence – a commodity that is currently as rare as a freshly mined ounce of platinum.

Without doubt, the next phase of South Africa’s recovery will have to be led by the private sector – the first phase relied on government’s balance sheet, which is now in need of repair, the second on accommodative monetary policy, which has also been more or less exhausted.

But private balance sheets will not be unlocked in the absence of confidence. And confidence will not emerge by itself, especially in a context of confidence-sapping infrastructure bottlenecks and, even more importantly, the current volatile labour climate.

Rebuilding investor confidence is going to require patient, decisive and accommodative leadership at the highest level. Without question, the postelection Finance Minister, whoever that may be, will be key to providing not only the vision for such a compact, but also the stewardship required to convince the social partners to stand behind that vision.