South Africa

JOHANNESBURG – Julius Malema may take his battle with the African National Congress (ANC) leadership all the way to the party's conference in Mangaung, but the youth league's defiance of President Jacob Zuma has put him in a tighter corner than ever. Following his expulsion from the party, Malema has a fortnight to appeal the sentence to the ANC's National Disciplinary Committee of Appeal (NDCA), headed by Cyril Ramaphosa. Political analyst Steven Friedman says it is a foregone conclusion that Malema will appeal, but it should not be assumed that the higher body will simply rubberstamp the penalty imposed by the National Disciplinary Committee (NDC). "He will appeal, but I don't think what happens then is a formality. It should not be expected that they will simply confirm the current verdict," he says. Friedman predicts that the appeal committee will not absolve the ANC youth league leader, but it could decide to suspend him, in line with the original sentence imposed by the disciplinary committee last year. "They are not going to say it has all been a dreadful mistake. But it is not completely off the wall that they will say let's reduce this. "The ANC will get the best of both worlds. It will be seen to discipline him, but not to be totally unyielding and harsh." Friedman says the youth league's disruption of a speech by President Jacob Zuma, in Cape Town, had cost Malema support from those opposing Zuma in the ANC's factional battle. His supporters sang "Zuma, where's Juju? We are incomplete" while the President spoke, drawing a stern warning from him that the party will address ill-discipline in its ranks. "Last week has surely weakened the position of people who would like to defend him," Friedman says.

CAPE TOWN – Cabinet is to consider amendments to the Labour Relations Act in the coming months and is pursuing several measures to ensure more jobs are created, Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe says. Motlanthe was responding to a question from the leader of the opposition Lindiwe Mazibuko, on whether Cabinet intends to approve amendments to the Labour Relations Act and what steps have been taken to create more jobs and ensure that economic growth is being led by the private sector. Speaking in the National Assembly, he says he is not in a position to speculate on what the Cabinet may decide when considering amendments to the Act. However, he points out that the current labour legislation is flexible enough to allow for competition in the labour market. He says the improvement of higher education and further education and training (FET) colleges, mooted in the recently released Green Paper on Post-School Further Education and Training, will accelerate efforts to build a capable labour force. Turning to what is being done to ensure that economic growth is being led by the private sector, Motlanthe says the private sector has played a major role, but that there will also be a role for government to create an enabling environment for growth.

PRETORIA – A task team, comprising local and foreign media, and government officials, will be established to deal with future news reports on former President Nelson Mandela’s health. Government spokesperson Jimmy Manyi says the decision to form the team was taken during a meeting between media and government representatives. “The character of the meeting was very positive. There was agreement and a meeting of minds on concerns about former President Nelson Mandela,” he says. “All parties expressed appreciation around the concerns regarding Madiba’s privacy and sensitivity in communicating on his health status.” The task team will discuss how to manage Mandela’s possible hospital visits in future. “All parties reiterated their resolve not to negatively impact on Madiba’s dignity and his family’s privacy.” The Presidency says Mandela was released from an undisclosed hospital, after he was admitted for a stomach ailment. Defence Minister Lindiwe Sisulu says there is “nothing wrong” with Mandela and that he was admitted to undergo a laparoscopy, also known as minimally invasive surgery, or keyhole surgery.

JOHANNESBURG – South Africa’s economic growth is likely to have accelerated in the fourth quarter of last year, driven mainly by higher consumer demand boosted by lower interest rates, a Reuters poll shows. Higher wages, the addition of new jobs and a slashing of interest rates by a cumulative 650 basis points have boosted demand in Africa’s largest economy, although economic recovery remains hesitant after a recession in 2009. Growth in Q4 is expected to have quickened to 3.1%, seasonally adjusted and annualised, the median of 15 economists surveyed by Reuters shows. Year-on-year growth is seen slower at 2.6%. “The growing middle class and countercyclical government spending – including rapidly increasing job creation and salary levels in the public sector – are providing support to growth,” says Annabel Bishop, an economist at Investec. “Consumer spending remains the driver of growth in the absence of much needed fixed investment.” The Reserve Bank has left the key repo rate at 5.5% since November 2010, after reducing it by 6.5 percentage points over a two-year period to ease pressure on the economy.

Africa & the world

HARARE – Zimbabwe's demand that foreign companies turn over majority stakes to locals is being driven by upcoming elections and is scaring investors away, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai says. Mining firms, banks and retailers have grown increasingly worried about the law, pushed by Tsvangirai's rival and coalition partner, President Robert Mugabe. "It is political rhetoric," Tsvangirai says at an investment forum in Johannesburg. "The indigenisation law as it currently is – there is no talk of nationalisation. There is no talk of grabbing property." Tsvangirai says politicians can make promises of bringing riches to the masses, but the law states market prices must be paid for the stakes in foreign firms and there is not enough money in private hands to make that happen. "Our people don't have the necessary resources to buy the equity that is currently existing in the economy," he says. Zimbabwe's economy was a basket case, with inflation running at astronomical levels, before a coalition was formed between Mugabe and his long-time foe Tsvangirai after a disputed election in 2008. The deal helped stabilise the economy and reverse a decade of steep decline; however, progress could be dashed by national elections required by next year under the power-sharing agreement.

CONAKRY – Guinea's electoral commission says it will hold its delayed parliamentary election on July 18, a vote that could help the West African State unblock donor aid potentially worth billions of dollars. The legislative poll, which had been due last December, should mark the final step in Guinea's transition from military to civilian rule. The European Union says it will only resume full cooperation with Guinea after the polls are held. Guinea is the world's largest supplier of the aluminium ore bauxite, but decades of political turmoil since independence from France have curbed broader investment and left most of its people in poverty. Announcing the date, electoral commission chief Louceny Camara says: "It seems essential to end the long wait for candidates, the population and the government regarding the scheduling of the legislative election." The country ended two years of rule by a military junta with presidential elections in late 2010, which brought President Alpha Condé to power. However, he had to delay the legislative election after the opposition threatened a boycott. At least three people died and 300 were injured in September as security forces put down an opposition protest over the original timing of the election, as well as concern that Condé was rigging voter lists. Condé, who must ratify the new date, has since opened talks with the opposition over how to hold the vote.

MEXICO CITY – The world’s major emerging economies reject the tradition that an American automatically is selected to head the World Bank and they will consider putting forward their own candidate for the open job. Finance chiefs from the Brics group of emerging market powerhouses – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – met on the sidelines of a G20 meeting in Mexico City and agreed the top World Bank job should be open to all countries. “Candidates should be based on merit and not on nationality,” Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega says. Another Brics official says the group will discuss the possibility of putting up their own candidate to challenge whoever the US government nominates. “Certainly, it is a discussion we will have.” Countries have until March 23 to submit names for the top post and a decision is likely by the April meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

JUBA – Rebel groups in Sudan say they have captured a Sudanese army garrison near the border with South Sudan in an operation that Khartoum believes was masterminded by the South’s army. The rebels say they killed 130 members of the government forces in the attack. The figure could not be independently verified. The South Sudan government says none of its forces were involved, but the assault fuelled tensions between the neighbours already at odds over oil exports and border disputes. Any involvement of Southern forces will have violated a nonaggression pact signed by the two sides this month. The clashes took place in the South Kordofan province on Sudan’s side of the ill-defined border with South Sudan, a flashpoint between the two countries. The newly formed rebel umbrella group, the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF), says its forces were behind the assault on the military post around Lake Obyad, which lies near the boundary. The SRF was formed last year between the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North, which operates in the South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, and the Justice and Equality Movement, based in Darfur in the west of Sudan.