South Africa

PRETORIA – President Jacob Zuma has been warned that the courts will be used to hold him to the eventual recommendations of the Seriti commission of inquiry into the arms deal. "If he irrationally refuses to implement sensible recommendations of the commission, we will be back in court," lawyer Paul Hoffman, who has been acting for arms deal campaigner Terry Crawford-Browne, says. Hoffman was speaking after the terms of reference of the commission were announced. Hoffman acted for Crawford-Browne in his Constitutional Court bid to force Zuma to appoint a judicial commission of inquiry into allegations of corruption in the arms contracts. Zuma pre-empted the outcome of the case by appointing the commission that will be chaired by Supreme Court of Appeal Judge Willie Seriti, and must submit its final report in 30 months. Hoffman says the commission is essentially a "policy instrument" intended to advise the President on a fraught issue that has dogged the government since the late 1990s. "So, if a wishy-washy report is produced that says 'maybe there was, maybe there wasn't', then the President will be entitled to say: 'Well, I can't take it any further’. If, however, strong recommendations come that say that it is very clear that these deals are tainted . . . then it will be very difficult for the President not to act on that." Justice Minister Jeff Rabebe says the commission will have the power to subpoena witnesses, revisit past investigations and recommend criminal prosecutions.

JOHANNESBURG – South Africa says it will further relax foreign exchange controls to allow companies to top up capital in their offshore businesses and even invest outside their current business lines. The changes mark the latest step by Africa's top economy to move away from stringent controls over foreign exchange flows out of the country. The National Treasury says companies will be allowed to invest offshore – outside their core business – so long as they do not acquire more than 20% in a foreign entity. The latest measures could be negative for the rand in the short term but "the amount of outflows could easily be offset by new inflows in a risk-on environment, which is a longer-term positive" says Razia Khan, head of Africa Research at Standard Bank. Companies could also hedge up to 75% of their exposure in the forward market, for any financial year – without applying to the South African Reserve Bank. "This is a major step forward," Khan says. "Dividend inflows from offshore investment will hopefully help reduce the income account deficit on the current account," she adds. Inflows into South Africa in the past few years saw the rand gain as much 20% against the dollar since the beginning of 2009. Instead of taxing inflows into the bond market – like Brazil – South Africa has opted for exchange controls relaxation and reserves accumulation to deal with the rand.

PRETORIA – South African President Jacob Zuma fires two Cabinet Ministers and suspends the national police chief in an apparent bid to dispel criticism that he has been soft on corruption within his government. Cooperative Governance Minister Sicelo Shiceka, whose office oversees local administrations, and Public Works Minister Gwen Mahlangu-Nkabinde will leave government, Zuma says. Police commissioner Bheki Cele, who is not in the Cabinet, was suspended on full pay pending an inquiry, Zuma adds. All three have been accused of abuse of office by an anticorruption body, which recommended Zuma take action against them. With his standing in the ruling African National Congress (ANC) at an all-time low ahead of an election for the ANC leadership in just over 14 months, Zuma appears to be responding to complaints, most notably from his allies in the trade union federation, Cosatu, of endemic corruption in his administration. Noting the findings against the three by Public Protector Thuli Madonsela, the antigraft investigator, Presidential spokesperson Mac Maharaj says: “Clearly the Public Protector’s report was part of the consideration and resulted in some changes in the Cabinet.” He adds it is “not the sole reason”. Independent political analyst Nic Borain, welcoming the dismissals as positive for South African governance, says: “An expectation that such a significant reshuffle will not be influenced by the power struggles within the ANC would be naive. But, on an initial reading, we are cautiously optimistic.” Zuma has replaced Shiceka with Public Service Minister Richard Baloyi. Nkabinde is replaced by Thembelani Nxesi, a Deputy Minister for rural development. Baloyi’s post has been taken by Roy Padayachie, hitherto the Communications Minister.

PRETORIA – Supreme Court of Appeal Judge Willie Seriti will chair a commission of inquiry into the government’s arms deal, President Jacob Zuma says. Deputy Judge President of the High Court in Pretoria, Willem van der Merwe, and Judge Francis Legodi of the same court will be the other two members of the three-man commission. They will “investigate allegations of wrongdoing in the strategic defence procurement packages, generally known as the ‘arms deal’,” Zuma says. “Mr Justice Seriti will chair the commission, which is expected to complete its work within two years.” On September 15, Zuma announced that he would appoint a judicial commission of inquiry into South Africa’s controversial multibillion-rand arms deal. The September announcement pre-empted the matter being taken to the highest court of the country. In 2009, legal proceedings were instituted in the Western Cape High Court asking the court to direct the President to appoint an independent judicial commission of inquiry into allegations of wrongdoing, or to require him to reconsider his refusal to do so. It later transpired that the Western Cape High Court was the wrong forum to hear the matter. An application was then brought in the Constitutional Court. The matter was set down for hearing on November 17. But arms deal activist Terry Crawford-Browne at the time told The New Age newspaper he would only withdraw his case if credible people were appointed to the commission of inquiry.

Africa & the world

TRIPOLI – Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, fearing for his life if captured in Libya, has tried to arrange for an aircraft to fly him out of his desert refuge and into the custody of The Hague war crimes court, a senior Libyan official says. Details are sketchy but a picture has built up since his father's killing, while in the hands of ruling National Transitional Council (NTC) fighters a week ago, that suggests Muammar Gaddafi's 39-year-old heir-apparent has taken refuge among Sahara nomads and is seeking a safe haven abroad. The senior NTC official says that Saif al-Islam has crossed the border into Niger but has not yet found a way to hand himself over (?) to the International Criminal Court at The Hague. "There is a contact with Mali and with South Africa and with another neighbouring country to organise his exit . . . . He hasn't got confirmation yet, he's still waiting," says the official, who declined to be named. Even if he can still draw on some of the vast fortune the Gaddafi clan, built up abroad during 42 years in control of North Africa's main oilfields, his indictment by the ICC over his part in trying to crush the revolt limits his options. That may explain an apparent willingness, in communications monitored by intelligence services and shared with Libya's interim rulers, to discuss a surrender to the ICC, whereas his mother and surviving siblings simply fled to Algeria and Niger.

TUNIS – The Islamist Ennahda party has been officially declared the winner of Tunisia's election, setting it up to form the first Islamist-led government in the wake of the "Arab Spring" uprisings. But the election, which has so far confounded predictions that it will tip the North African country into crisis, turned violent when protesters, angry that their fourth-placed party was eliminated from the poll, set fire to the mayor's office in a provincial town. Ennahda has tried to reassure secularists nervous about the prospect of Islamist rule in one of the Arab world's most liberal countries by saying it will respect women's rights and not try to impose a Muslim moral code on society. The Islamists won power ten months after Mohamed Bouazizi, a Tunisian vegetable seller in the town of Sidi Bouzid, set fire to himself in an act of protest that led to the fall of Tunisia's autocratic leader and inspired uprisings in Egypt and Libya. "We salute Sidi Bouzid and its sons who launched the spark and we hope that God will have made Mohamed Bouazizi a martyr," says Ennahda leader Rachid Ghannouchi, a soft-spoken Islamic scholar who spent 22 years in exile in Britain. "We will continue this revolution to realise its aims of a Tunisia that is free, independent, developing and prosperous in which the rights of God, the Prophet, women, men, the religious and the nonreligious are assured because Tunisia is for everyone," Ghannouchi told a crowd of cheering supporters. Announcing the results, election commission members say that Ennahda had won 90 seats in the 217-seat assembly, which will draft a new constitution, form an interim government and schedule new elections, probably for early 2013.

NEW YORK – The US is increasing food aid to drought-hit and strife-torn Horn of Africa nations, where millions of people are at risk of starvation and malnutrition, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says. “I am pleased to announce that we are providing an additional $100-million, primarily in food assistance, for drought-affected areas in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia,” Clinton says in remarks prepared for delivery at a United Nations (UN) World Food Programme awards ceremony. Clinton says the new funds are in addition to almost $650-million for food and humanitarian assistance the US had already provided. The UN says about 3.6-million people are at risk of starvation in Somalia as well as about 12-million people across the Horn of Africa region, including Ethiopia and Kenya. Aid agencies say they have been unable to reach more than two-million Somalis facing starvation in territories held by the al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabaab rebels. Clinton says that additional US support will help relief workers reach more people well into next year. “Tens of thousands of people, mostly children, have already died,” she says.