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Marcus cautions on high wage deals

28th November 2012

By: Sapa

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Unions must realise that getting higher wages for workers could be at the cost of jobs, South African Reserve Bank Governor Gill Marcus told National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (Numsa) delegates on Wednesday.

She was speaking in Randburg, Johannesburg, at a Numsa conference to decide on next year's bargaining strategy.

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"It is very important to realise that there is a potential worsening of the situation," said Marcus, after presenting an overview of the global economic situation.

Earlier, Numsa first vice president Andrew Chirwa warned that the 2013 collective bargaining process was going to be very difficult because workers were not prepared to accept CPI-linked increases anymore, and wanted what they considered a "living wage".

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"Higher wages might well be granted, but it could be at the cost of employment," cautioned Marcus.

"That is one of the factors that we face... that the higher wage bill might affect employment."

She said that there was "no question" that executives' salaries required the same kind of scrutiny by their shareholders and boards, especially bonuses.

This was the sixth year of a global crisis, since the sub-prime mortgage crisis which turned into a banking crisis and then "mutated" into a sovereign debt crisis, she said.

One third of South Africa's manufactured goods went to Europe, where many countries were in a recession and unemployment was increasing.

For the first year of a recession, there were resources to fall back on, like savings and pensions, she said, but by six years, there was nothing left.

"The situation in Europe is extremely bad. And let's make an assumption that nothing gets worse.

"So, we are not talking about a short, sharp problem... if that doesn't sober us all up, I'm not sure what would. This impacts on us as a country."

In emerging markets, which are doing relatively better than advanced economies, China's growth, for example, was slowing to 7.5%.

South Africa would be "delighted" with this growth, but it was slow for China, and if China's markets in Europe were slowing down, they would buy less commodities from South Africa for their own manufacturing.

Even Brazil, with its "Lula moment", was seeing only 2% growth, she said, referring to former Brazilian president Luiz Lula da Silva's radical economic shift during his second term of office, used by the Congress of SA Trade Unions as an example of how poverty could be addressed in South Africa.

"It is going to take five, six, seven, years before we come out of this deep hole," warned Marcus.

South Africa was not imposing austerity measures as some other countries were, she continued.

It would also not interfere with the rand/dollar exchange rate, as recommended by some unions, to benefit exporters.

"We do not fix the exchange rate, we do not target the exchange rate," she said.

Marcus said there was no question that extreme poverty needed to be addressed as there was a high level of inequality in South African society.

"South Africa is a very interesting country. We're actually a rich country with a huge number of poor people – both blacks and whites have extremes of wealth," she said.

She reiterated her invitation to the union and other organisations needing further information on these issues that they were welcome to set up a meeting with her for more discussions.

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