A large number of Libyan factions are meeting in Palermo, in southern Italy, on Monday for a two-day conference in an attempt to reunite the country’s institutions and to forge a path forward towards a time-table for new elections.

But just how successful will this conference be in achieving its goals, especially as rivalry between Italy and France for hegemony in the North African country seems to be a major motivating factor behind the conference.

“The two-day conference symbolises an Italian determination to regain diplomatic responsibility for Libya after French president Emmanuel Macron convened a surprise summit in Paris in May in a bid to push for Libyan elections on December 10,” Patrick Wintour the Guardian’s diplomatic editor wrote in a Monday article.

The Italians were taken aback by Macron’s attempt to assert his authority in Libya and were of the opinion that such a rapid timetable for elections was aimed at improving renegade General Khalifa Hafter’s chances at cementing his control in the country.

There are two rival governments jockeying for control of the North African country. One is the UN-backed, and internationally-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) based in the capital Tripoli in the west.

However, Fayez Serraj’s Presidency Council, in the eastern city of Tobruk, asserts it is Libya’s real authority and it is supported by Hafter and his self-styled Libya National Army (LNA).

Macron’s government countered the Italians saying that repeated UN efforts to achieve peace were failing and that a new initiative was needed to inject life into Libya’s continued peace efforts against a backdrop of continuing civil war carried out by a myriad of militias vying for territorial and political control.

“This whole conference has to be seen primarily as a power play by the Italians against the French. They hoped to make it larger than the Paris summit to show it had greater legitimacy, but with each iteration its scale has been diminished, and the number of senior foreign ministers attending is in doubt,” said Libya specialist at the European council for foreign relations, Tarek Megerisi.

“From the UN point of view, the summit will be regarded a success if it leads to greater unification of Europe’s position, including EU support for the UN plan for a national conference leading to elections,” added Megerisi.

However, Ghassan Salame, the UN special envoy for Libya acknowledged last week that the elections timetable could not be met and has instead proposed a conference for the beginning of 2019 which would lead to an electoral process kicking off the same year.

His goal seems to be supported by the majority of Libyans who want elections. He also believes that these polls would provide a new democratic mandate to counter obstructionist politicians in the east and west who are blocking reconciliation and thereby exacerbating the lawlessness in the country.

However, the Palermo summit has already been compromised, with Hafter announcing at the last minute that he would not attend.

“Haftar not attending would be a blow for Italy’s diplomacy, given that PM Giuseppe Conte flew personally to Libya to plead with the field marshal,” said Jalel Harchaoui, a lecturer in geopolitics at Versailles University.

“Haftar’s absence would also act as a reminder about how vivid the competition between the Islamists of Misrata and eastern Libya still is,” added Harchaoui.

“Every time diplomacy is undermined, Libya makes a small step towards irreversible partition.”