In August 2011, Libya’s rebels seized power of the country after a six-month struggle and Western Governments could begin the military withdrawal from NATO-bases around the Mediterranean. With the support of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the rebel forces made quick advancements that allowed the National Transitional Council (NTC), a political body formed in February 2011 in opposition to the Gaddafi regime, to seize control of Libya’s major cities while avoiding large-scale fighting in Tripoli.

Despite the success, the NTC has struggled to establish themselves as a Government for the whole of Libya. So far, 2012 has seen the return of fighting in former Gaddafi strongholds such as Sirte, showing that the NTC has yet to gain the full acceptance of the Libyan people. From his exile in Niger, son of Libya’s late leader Muammar Gaddafi, Saadi Gaddafi, has warned of a “real uprising in Libya.”⁽²⁾ This, and similar threats to security, have increased the pressure on the NTC, and made an already challenging task of rebuilding Libya even more difficult. Simultaneously, increasing disagreements and discontent among the loosely attached coalition of Libyan militia groups has led to violent clashes in major cities including Tripoli.

This CAI paper assesses the situation in Libya one year after the rebellion started and the United Nations (UN) Security Council introduced resolution 1973 calling for all necessary means to be used in order to stop human rights abuses by Gaddafi’s regime. Particular attention is given to the NTC’s challenge of securing legitimate rule and building a viable institutional framework before the upcoming June 2012 election.

A troublesome revolution

Colonel Muammar Gaddafi was often held as the Arab world’s most violent despot. Throughout his reign, he was known for backing terrorism and assassinations of dissidents. With actions such as the killings of 1,270 prisoners in a Tripoli jail in 1996 still in mind, the Libyans had every right to fear bloodshed when Gaddafi’s sons vowed to let their forces crack down, house by house, on those in Tobruk and Benghazi involved in the uprising.⁽³⁾ As Gaddafi’s military forces rapidly stepped up their attacks, the UN resolution 1973 of 17 March 2011 was enforced by a NATO-led coalition. In August 2011, the revolutionaries declared victory after a six-month war. Since then, the NTC has sought to re-establish order and build a new system of governance following the collapse of the former regieme. This, however, has proved difficult.

With a modern history of Fascist Italian colonialism, constitutional monarchy and one-man rule, Libya lacks experience with participatory politics. Unlike other post-war reconstructions, such as that of Iraq, the NATO-led intervention was lent a broad legitimacy, receiving backing from the Arab world. Although the revolution had received widespread support both in Libya and in the Western and Arab worlds, tensions remain as Libya marks the first anniversary of the start of the fall of Gaddafi. There are several reasons for this.

Libya has not always been a unified state. Throughout history, the country has been divided into four traditional tribal regions. In the modern age, the main distinction has been between the areas surrounding Tripoli (the capital of Tripolitania in the west) and Benghazi (the capital of Cyrenaica in the east). As Gaddafi rose to power in 1969, he claimed to be acting on behalf of Tripolitania.⁽⁴⁾ After the coup, Tripoli emerged as Libya’s administrative capital. This has led to the gradual marginalisation of Benghazi. The recent civil war heightened this traditional division as the rebellion commenced in Cyrenaica, traditionally a vital base for regime critics, while initially gaining limited support around Tripolitania where Gaddafi has benefited from a stronger public support.⁽⁵⁾ During the campaign, the NTC was headquartered in the eastern city of Benghazi. Under protection of NATO, the cooperating eastern militias operated under significantly safer circumstances than western rebels, who have been described as essentially autonomous, self-armed and self-trained.⁽⁶⁾ Consequently, the NTC is not in a position to proclaim control of a unified national army.

Furthermore, under Gaddafi, Libya largely evolved into a state built around the personalities of quixotic leaders and a complex network of power brokers representing the various ethnic tribes. Throughout his rule, Gaddafi increasingly relied on loyal supporters,as demonstrated by his decision, following a failed war against Chad in the 1990s leading to military commanders questioning the colonel’s authority, to under-fund the army with the exception of the most loyal elite forces.⁽⁷⁾ With the dissolution of the Gaddafi regime, there is no significant national security force capable of legitimately reacting to instability or potentially violent large-scale protests.

The NTC’s lack of capacity to enforce law and order was highlighted on 21 January 2012, as up to 2,000 protesters successfully stormed the Benghazi headquarters of the NTC in order to express their discontent about the fact that Gaddafi-era officials have remained in their positions, and to demand more transparency on how the NTC is managing Libya’s assets.⁽⁸⁾ Whereas the NTC officials have stated that those proved to have been involved in human rights abuses or financial fraud would be fired, the interim Government has underscored that no civil servant will be fired merely because they served under Gaddafi.⁽⁹⁾ Looking at the chaos arising from dissolving the state structures of post-war Iraq, this appears to be a sensible attitude. Nevertheless, sections of the public will most likely continue to view this as problematic.

Human rights concerns

The NTC has actively sought to distinguish themselves from the Gaddafi regime. However, the scenes of Gaddafi being mocked, beaten and abused before being lynched, following the NTC’s rise to power, were described a setback to attaining a free and democratic Libya based on human rights. ⁽¹⁰⁾Since then, reports of torture of detainees have continued to discredit the NTC. Highlighting this, the international medical humanitarian organisation, Doctors without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), decided on 26 January 2012 to suspend its operations in detention centres in Misrata.⁽¹¹⁾ According to the official press release following the decision, a substantial number of detainees were treated for numerous injuries and displayed obvious signs of torture.⁽¹²⁾ The final decision was allegedly taken after several unsuccessful attempts to alert the National Army Security Service, however, no concrete actions were taken.⁽¹³⁾ Similar signals have come from Amnesty International who has warned that prisoners from Libya and other African countries have been subject to abuse.⁽¹⁴⁾ According to the UN human rights chief, Navi Pillay, about 8,500 detainees are being held by militia groups in about 60 centres.⁽¹⁵⁾ The reports of torture can be seen not only as vindication for the Western Governments who participated in the NATO air campaign in Libya, but also as contributing to discrediting the interim-rule of the NTC.

Attempts are being made to address past human rights abuses in Libya. To avoid another public execution, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi (son of Muammar Gaddafi) has, since he was seized in Libya’s Sahara desert in November 2011 dressed as a Bedouin tribesman, been held at a secret location in the north-western town of Zintan.⁽¹⁶⁾ Despite also being indicted by the International Criminal Court in the Hague for crimes against humanity, the NTC chairman, Mustafa Abdul Jali, has insisted that the man who was formally perceived as the London School of Economics educated Western-friendly and acceptable face of the country, will face a fair trial in Libya.⁽¹⁷⁾ Facing charges of rape and murder, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi will, if convicted, face the death penalty.⁽¹⁸⁾

Drawing on the experiences from Iraq and the former Yugoslavia, there are few success stories of post-war justice. Neither the show-trials like that of Saddam Hussein orchestrated to deliver a predetermined outcome, nor drawn-out trials such as that of former Yugoslav president, Slobodan Milosevic, have proved themselves beneficial for the post-war legitimisation of the new rulers.⁽¹⁹⁾ After more than four decades under Gaddafi, one can raise the question whether Libya has a sufficiently well-developed judicial system to provide a fair trial for representatives of the former regieme. Nevertheless, a successful trial of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi could prove a vital boost for the NTC.

Fear of a second rebellion

As the NTC’s legitimacy is fading, Libya has witnessed attempts to establish political alternatives. As some groups have turned to violence, sceptics have expressed fear of a second rebellion.⁽²⁰⁾ Despite a proliferation of political parties in Libya, two factors, namely the absence of a political party law and the election into power of the National General Congress taking place on a first-past-the-post basis have made it difficult to form major alternatives to the NTC. Moreover, former members of the revolutionary Committees and Revolutionary Guards, those who participated in the torture or imprisonment of opponents of the former regime are, according to the draft law, not entitled to run as candidates.⁽²¹⁾ As an Electoral High Commission responsible for the practical implementation of the June 2012 ballot has yet to be established, uncertainty remains and many are questioning the legitimacy of NTC’s rule.⁽²²⁾ Discontent has been particularly visible in the western part of Libya, and seems to have reached new heights as representatives of about 100 militias from the region declared on 13 February 2012 that they had united in a new federation in order to increase the pressure on the NTC to speed up the reform process.⁽²³⁾ It is still uncertain what this move will mean in the longer term.

The NTC is also facing challenges from the former regime. In September 2011 it was reported that supporters of the Gaddafi regime crossed the border to Niger in substantial numbers,⁽²⁴⁾ among them Muammar Gaddafi’s son, Saadi Gaddafi, and other key personnel of the former regime.⁽²⁵⁾ From what has been perceived as a Niger sanctuary, Saadi Gaddafi has repeatedly declared that the NTC is not a legitimate body and called for a revolt against what he described as the ruling militias.⁽²⁶⁾ Saadi Gaddafi has been granted humanitarian asylum in Niger despite an arrest warrant from Interpol. He is accused of having “taken goods by force and intimidation” when he led the Libyan football federation.⁽²⁷⁾ Despite reports of Saadi Gaddafi being detained for violating his asylum conditions, it is yet to be decided whether he will be extradited.

Concluding remarks

Currently, the NTC appears to be the only body able to govern Libya. That said, it remains dependent on support from more than 100 militias that the International Crisis Group estimates to be operating in Libya.⁽²⁸⁾ As many of these militias volunteered to undertake a key role in toppling Gaddafi, they deserve a say in Libya’s future. As 2012 has seen a surge in popular discontent and violent clashes, the fear of a prolonged civil war has again emerged on the agenda. However, according the UN's special envoy to Libya, Ian Martin, the violent clashes do not indicate a pro-Gaddafi resurgence, but rather represent a deep-rooted legacy still playing a role in society.⁽²⁹⁾

Although the NTC has set out detailed plans for the transition process, the clock is ticking for stabilising Libya. As several clans appear to be vying for power, Libya needs measurable results. Economic growth and investment will give the NTC more room for political manoeuvres. In this regard, the doubling of the oil production from November 2011 to January 2012 is a positive sign, although the production remains under half of the output one year before the revolution.⁽³⁰⁾ However, building viable institutions and security stability will take time, and the NTC is only set to be in power until mid-2012.⁽³¹⁾ As there are clear limits of what can be undertaken in such short time, the NTC should seek to maintain the unity of the ruling alliance. Furthermore, by initiating a fair and transparent process towards bringing key members of Gaddafi’s regime to justice, the NTC can lay down a vital building block for securing long-term stability, democracy and prosperity in Libya.

NOTES

(1) Contact Anders Brudevoll through Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Africa Watch Unit (africawatch@consultancyafrica.com).
(2) ‘Qaddafi’s son warns of a ‘real uprising’ in Libya, urges leaders to stop violence’, Al Arabiya, 10 February 2012, http://www.alarabiya.net.
(3) ‘The challenge of Libya - Where will it end?’, The Economist, 24 March 2011, http://www.economist.com.
(4) Charkow, R., ‘The role of tribalism in Libya's history’, 1 March 2011, CBC News, http://www.cbc.ca/news.
(5) Dobbins, J. and Wehrey, F., ‘Libyan Nation Building after Qaddafi’, Foreign Affairs, 23 August 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com.
(6) ‘Holding Libya Together: Security Challenges after Qadhafi,’ International Crisis Group, 14 December 2011, http://www.crisisgroup.org.
(7) Wehrey, F., ‘Libya's Terra Incognita’, Foreign Affairs, 28 February 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com.
(8) ‘Libyans storm transitional government headquarters in Benghazi’, The Guardian, 21 January 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk.
(9) ‘Protesters storm Libyan government HQ in Benghazi’, Reuters, 21 January 2012, http://www.reuters.com.
(10) ‘Libya: Britain calls for probe into Gaddafi killing’, The Telegraph, 23 October 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk.
(11) ‘Libya: Detainees Tortured and Denied Medical Care’, Doctors Without Borders, 26 January 2012, http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org.
(12) Ibid.
(13) Ibid.
(14) Black, I., ‘Libyan militias accused of torture’, The Guardian, 26 January 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk.
(15) Ibid.
(16) ‘Libya pledges Gaddafi’s son will go on trial in 2 months’, The Scotsman, 13 February 2012, http://www.scotsman.com.
(17) Ibid.
(18) Ibid.
(19) Levina P., ‘A show trial for Saif Gaddafi would only promote discord in Libya’, The Guardian, 24 January 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk.
(20) ‘Libya - Revolution and Aftermath’, New York Times, 19 February 2012, http://topics.nytimes.com.
(21) ‘NTC issues draft election law’, Economist Intelligence Unit, 20 January 2012, http://country.eiu.com.
(22) Ibid.
(23) ‘Libya: Western Militias Unite, Posing Challenge to Transitional Government’, New York Times, 13 February 2012, http://www.nytimes.com.
(24) ‘Libya conflict: Armed Gaddafi loyalists flee to Niger’, BBC, 6 September 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk.
(25) ‘Libya demands Niger hand over Gaddafi's son’, Al Jazeera, 12 February 2012, http://www.aljazeera.com.
(26) Qaddafi’s son warns of a ‘real uprising’ in Libya, urges leaders to stop violence’, Al Arabiya, 10 February 2012, http://www.alarabiya.net.
(27) ‘Kadhafi son says rebellion brewing in new Libya’, France24, 11 February 2012, http://www.france24.com.
(28) ‘Holding Libya Together: Security Challenges after Qadhafi,’ International Crisis Group, 14 December 2011, http://www.crisisgroup.org.
(29) Black, I., ‘Libyan militias accused of torture’, The Guardian, 26 January 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk.
(30) ‘Libya’s oil - Make it flow’, The Economist, 3 September 2011, http://www.economist.com.
(31) ‘Libya - Revolution and Aftermath’, New York Times, 19 February 2012, http://topics.nytimes.com.

Written by Anders Brudevoll (1)