Jacob Zuma would not have an easy Presidency, said political commentator Justice Malala, as there remained a contestation within the African National Congress (ANC) between "the left, technocrats, business" and other players.

Speaking at a business breakfast hosted by the French South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FSACCI), which promotes reciprocal trade between France and South Africa, Malala said that while the left wing had been on the rise since the ANC's Polokwane conference in December 2007, he doubted that it would become pervasive.

Malala cited well-known political analyst and professor of politics Adam Habib, when he said that there seemed to be confusion between "institutional uncertainty" and "substantive uncertainty" when it came to South African politics.

South Africans tend to worry about "substantive uncertainty", explained Malala, which was the perception that politics created. For example, he said, the public outcry that generally followed remarks by ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema. This was "fluff", said Malala. It was the kind of repartee that could be found in politics all over the world.

South Africans and foreign investors alike should rather be concerned about "institutional uncertainty", which implied that State institutions were not entirely sound. Malala cited the disbanding of the Scorpions and the controversy surrounding Cape Judge President John Hlophe's ongoing battle with the Judicial Service Commission by way of example.

When South Africa's institutions were in question, he said, the certainty of foreign investment was dubious.

The question of economic policy under President Zuma remained a mystery, said Malala. In October last year, Zuma himself, looking ahead to his certain victory in the 2009 elections, was quoted saying that he "want[ed] a pact with business", while Jeremy Cronin of the South African Communist Party said that "fundamental shifts [in economic policy] were coming." That same week, then Finance Minister Trevor Manuel stated that there would be "no seismic shifts" in the ANC's economic policy, and Gwede Mantashe, ANC secretary-general, said that there would be change. This was followed by a comment from Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni, who assured South Africans that economic policy would not change, while Zwelinzima Vavi of the Congress of South African Trade Unions, said that economic policy must be reviewed.

Speaking of foreign investors' fears that South Africa may be headed towards a left wing economic policy, Malala mentioned Max Sisulu, newly elected Speaker of Parliament, who had steered the ANC's economic policy to where it was today. Sisulu had a Masters degree in economics from an institution in the former Soviet Union. The implications of a communist influence seemed obvious, but, stressed Malala, the capitalist system in South Africa had worked for 15 years, so "why derail now?"

Shortly after the April elections, ANC treasurer-general Mathews Phosa, was "sent" to London by Zuma, said Malala, to reassure possible foreign investors that South Africa would still be a good place to invest. In his speech to the Business Council of Africa, Phosa stated that South Africa's "conservative fiscal and monetary policies would remain".

This was evidence enough, said Malala, that while the ANC's left wing allies were influential, he was not convinced that their policies would take over.

The respected political commentator shed light on the President's new Cabinet, saying that Zuma had made "inspired, courageous and market-pleasing choices in the economic cluster". Zuma had a achieved a balance with Trevor Manuel, a market favourite, as the new National Planning Minister, while new Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan and Economic Development Minister Ebrahim Patel both came from trade union and communist backgrounds.

The only problem with the economic sector of Zuma's Cabinet, Malala explained, was that there were now six Ministers with a bearing on macroeconomic policy: Manuel, Gordhan and Patel in the above-mentioned Ministries, Rob Davies in Trade and Industry, Barbara Hogan in Public Enterprises, and Collins Chabane in the new Performance Monitoring and Evaluation Ministry in the Presidency.

In another question of policy that would directly affect the members of the FSACCI present, Malala explained that the appointment of Maite Nkoana-Mashabane as Minister of International Relations and Cooperation meant a big policy shift. South Africa had always been a friend of the West, but Nkoana-Mashabane, with her experience as an ambassador in India, was an expert on Asia and China. This showed that Zuma would be shifting focus in international relations and, accordingly, in trade, to the East.