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Election Overview: Key factors, policy & constitutional Issues, survey trends & protest vote

Election Overview: Key factors, policy & constitutional Issues, survey trends & protest vote

22nd April 2014

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With exactly two weeks to go to South Africa’s fifth all-inclusive democratic general election all eyes remain on the political parties, their leaders and their campaigns. As pointed out before the large number of new factors introduced into this election makes for a very fluid situation and unpredictable outcome. Also, this will not necessarily be South Africa’s most decisive election to date. It will however most certainly set the stage for the run-up to what may be South Africa’s most critical election in 2019.

Also, the election appears to be largely fought in terms of news-making issues – such as the Nkandla Report - rather than the issues addressed in the election manifestos of the different political parties. And while there are a number of unknown new factors that could affect the election outcome at national level, it does seem that the most intense battles will take place in a number of provinces where the biggest shifts in support might occur.

Major election issues

In the meantime, some of the key issues that will either determine the outcome of the 2014 general election or that may  result from the outcome, continue to be the following:

  • whether the ANC’s majority will decrease, increase or stay the same;
  • what the effect of the Nkandla Report will be on the African National Congress’ (ANC’s) position, if any;
  • what the effect of the Economic Freedom Fighters’ (EFF) first-time participation will be on the final division of votes for parties;
  • where will the far left worker-based vote go in the absence of the much promised new workers’ party or socialist workers front;
  • whether the Cinderella party Agang will have any impact whatsoever;
  • whether the Democratic Alliance (DA) can at all grow its support from the 2009 elections, especially among black voters;
  • whether the Congress of the People (COPE) can remain a factor in either national or provincial politics;
  • whether the DA, due to its play for bigger black support and some recent questionable decisions, will have lost much of its traditional white support to the Freedom Front Plus (FF+), COPE and others as the grapevine suggests;
  • whether there will be a significant protest vote aimed at the ANC/President Jacob Zuma either in terms of a stay-away vote or spoilt ballot papers or by previous ANC supporters shifting their votes to other parties;
  • whether the "Sidikiwe! Vukani! Vote Campaign" against the ANC launched by ANC veteran Ronnie Kasrils and others will have any effect;
  • whether the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) will be able to fulfil its role impartially and effectively as in previous elections;
  • whether failure to remove the IEC chairwoman Pansy Tlakula over alleged irregularities ahead of the elections will be used by minority parties to de-legitimise the election result if they perform poorly as expected;
  • whether the elections will be free of violence, protests and intimidation, especially in areas recently affected by protest actions;
  • should there be dramatic shifts in voting patterns whether affected parties, political leaders and their supporters will accept these and democratically abide by the changes that will follow;
  • what the outcome will be in several intensely contested provinces, especially in the Western Cape, Gauteng, Northern Cape and to some extent the Eastern Cape, and whether there will be a need for coalition governments in some of them;
  • whether the political battles in the Congress of SA Trade Unions (COSATU), the Marikana tragedy and the subsequent labour instability including the ongoing platinum belt strike will have any serious impact on the outcome of the elections;
  • whether voters will pay any attention to parties’ election manifesto promises which seem to be mostly a forgotten side-show with the exception of the ANC’s manifesto which is presented to the electorate daily, free of charge by the SABC;
  • whether the elections will indicate a greater movement towards non-racialism or whether it will repeat historical race-based patters of support for parties;
  • whether or not voter apathy will have increased resulting in a lower poll percentage;
  • whether the “born free” generation of first-time voters will vote in significant numbers and if so, to which party the bulk of their support will go; and
  • what the impact of the final election result will be on the economy in terms of the rand exchange rate, business and investor confidence, the markets, and more.

Policy and constitutional issues

There are of course a number of policy and other issues too that may impact on the way voters think. Some of these have indeed been touched on in some parties’ election manifestos. Key among these issues are the government’s latest race-based job reservation or affirmative action proposals; the government’s latest land redistribution proposals and how they might affect agricultural land ownership, agricultural production, and future property rights in general; government’s latest amendments to legislation governing the mining sector; the promised radical “transformation” of the economy; the promised new legislation to “transform” the media and the Protection of State Information Bill that awaits President Zuma’s signature to make it law; and the promised amendments to the Constitution should the ANC achieve a two-thirds majority.

As far as amending the Constitution is concerned, the founding principles in Chapter 1 of the Constitution can be amended only with the support of 75% of the members of the National Assembly (NA) plus the support of 6 of the 9 provinces in the National Council of Provinces (NCOP). The Bill of Rights in Chapter 2 can be amended by a two-thirds majority of the NA, as can any other provisions in the Constitution. But where it affects any province the additional support of 6 of the 9 provinces in the NCOP is also required.

Two remove the Public Protector or the Auditor General – two of the Chapter nine democracy watchdog institutions – requires the support of 67% of the members of the NA. To replace either the Public Protector or Auditor General with new appointees requires 60% support in the NA. To appoint or remove any member of one of the Chapter 9 Commissions requires only a simple majority. Certain voting procedures are also prescribed in respect of so-called “money bills”. Since 1996 the Constitution has been amended seventeen times.

Election survey trends

The latest Sunday Times/Ipsos Markinor survey of 2,219 registered voters has for the second time shown a dramatic improvement in the ANC’s election prospects compared to the Ipsos survey undertaken in November.

In the November survey (before Nelson Mandela’s death, at the time of the leaked Nkandla report but before the official final report, and before intense election campaigning by parties had started) the ANC received only 53% of voters’ support, down from its almost 66% received in the 2009 general election. The survey was based on personal face-to-face interviews with 3,564 people.

By the time of the next Ipsos survey of 2,222 registered voters for the period February 20 to March 11 the ANC’s support stood at 66.1%, a whopping 13% improvement. That survey was also conducted before the release of the Nkandla Report. The latest survey among 2,219 registered voters, was started a day after the release of the Nkandla and was conducted from March 21 to April 4. It put the ANC support marginally down at 65.5%. This is based on an anticipated poll percentage of 74.5%.

The DA’s support in the three surveys respectively stood at 18% (November); 22.9% (March); and 23.1% (April). Support for the EFF was indicated as 4% (November); 3.7% (March); and 4% (April).

Effects of protest or no vote

Ipsos believes there will be a decline in voter turnout and has previously indicated this could benefit the ANC. However it will only benefit the ANC, or any other particular party, if a complex set of factors kick in into the equation, and even then it will be impossible to measure the exact effect as, for instance, it will be unknown who the stay-away voters might have voted for had they participated.

If many people people heed the Kasrils-led “vote no” campaign – and indications are to the contrary – it should be remembered that their spoilt ballot papers will be counted as part of the total voter turnout, unlike the stay-away votes, but their spoilt votes will not be included in the total number of votes that will determine each party’s share of the votes.

It should furthermore be noted that this campaign is aimed at people who until now have supported the ANC and not at voters supporting other parties. It also suggests that such voters could instead of spoiling their ballot papers vote for a minority party.

It would therefore be erroneous to say that the Kasrils “vote no” campaign will benefit the ANC, as has been suggested. The potential effect of the campaign has been well summed up by  Professor Daryl Glaser, head of the Wits University Department of Political Studies, in an article on iafrica.com. Glaser said that the campaign is essentially a protest against the current ANC leadership, but its political impact will be determined by the number of people who choose to spoil their ballots as opposed to previous elections.

If the ballot spoilers are people who would otherwise have voted ANC it will hurt the ANC, he says. But if those who spoilt their ballot were initially not going to vote at all, the effect would be neutral. And if those who were initially going to vote for opposition parties now spoil their votes, it would benefit the ANC.  But the latter is hardly likely to happen.

But as said, the Kasrils vote-no campaign is unlikely to have a big impact judging by initial reactions to it (something that can always change of course). But at this stage it will be safe to say that the protest vote of people living in communities that have been affected by often violent “service delivery” protests in the last year or more will be much more felt. A number of these communities have vowed to either not allow the IEC and its voting booths into their areas and therefore not allow any voting; or to not allow the ANC into their areas; or to boycott the elections themselves by not voting.

AMCU platinum strike

Meanwhile, as the nearing election hogs the limelight, it is easy to lose sight of the all-important strike by the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) on South Africa’s three biggest platinum mines. A meeting between the affected mining companies and the union is scheduled for today following the latest revised wage increase offer by the mining companies of R12,500 by 2017. AMCU members have yet to decide whether or not to accept the offer which could end the strike that is now in its third month and has already cost more than R13-billion.

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Written by Africa-International Communications Political Analyst & Editor Stef Terblanche

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