The military coup of April 2012, and subsequent transition that is supposed to end with the 2014 general elections, have not fundamentally changed the situation in Guinea-Bissau. While the immediate causes of the 2012 coup seem to have faded, the root causes of instability remain. Fears of a new coup, whether during or after the electoral process, are therefore not unfounded. This has implications for the accountability and credibility of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), since it has a peace mission on the ground and was the most influential external actor in establishing the transition. A new coup would be a major blow for the regional organisation. Holding general elections will, however, not be sufficient in solving the underlying problems that have led to repeated coups and political instability in the country. This highlights the extent of the post-election challenges that the future government will face, and which will require close and attentive international support.

The publication of this report was made possible with the support of the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) of Canada and the Embassy of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg in Senegal. The ISS is also grateful for the support of the following core partners: the governments of Norway, Sweden, Australia and Denmark.