The rate of HIV infections in South Africa, while still alarmingly high, appears to be levelling off, a report by the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) and Nelson Mandela Foundation suggested yesterday.

The rate of HIV infections in South Africa, while still alarmingly high, appears to be levelling off, a report by the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) and Nelson Mandela Foundation suggested last week.

A new population-based study released to tie in with World Aids Day shows that the HIV infection rate in South Africans aged two years and older is estimated to be 10,8%, with a higher rate in females (13,3%) than in males (8,2%).

However, HIV prevalence among young adults in the 15 to 49 age group increased only slightly from 15,6% in 2002 (the last time such a study was undertaken) to 16,2% this year.

HSRC CEO and principal investigator for the study, Dr Olive Shisana, told journalists that this finding may indicate that the epidemic in the general population has entered a phase of levelling off.

The study recommends that, among other things, the government refocuses and refines its HIV awareness and communication strategy, encourage safe male circumcision, investigate a the possibility of introducing a dedicated health tax to ensure the sustainability of the antiretroviral therapy programme.

The survey - funded by the Nelson Mandela Foundation, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation and the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention - is a repeat of the 2002 survey, and allows for generating estimates of HIV in a representative sample of the total South African population.

Shisana, a former Health DG, said that the most pressing areas of concern were around the youth and 50-and-over population segments, where understanding of the virus and prevention measures was at its lowest.

HIV prevalence increased among young people aged 15 to 24 to 10,3%, from 9,3% in 2002.

However, she said that one of the most concerning findings is that young women, in the 15 to 24 age group, are up to four times more likely to be HIV positive than their male counterparts.

Another key finding is that South Africans in general continue to harbour a false sense of security when it comes to HIV infection.

In fact, over half of the respondents in the study who were found to be HIV positive indicated that they did not think they were at risk of infection.

“That means that we have over two million people on our streets who are HIV positive and do not think they are at risk,” Shisana said.

There is also confusion, particularly in rural areas and among older people, over basic issues such as whether condoms can prevent HIV infection, whether a cure for Aids exists and uncertainty about HIV transmission from mother to child.

In 2005, the study involved more than 23 000 people, of whom almost 16 000 agreed to be tested for HIV, compared to 2002, when 9 963 people took part in the survey and 8 428 agreed to be tested.