2010 Presidential Election

Introduction

With no candidate securing an outright majority in the June 27 election, the Guinean electoral code dictates that the election must enter into a second runoff round, where the two candidates with the highest percentage of votes compete head-to-head.

Of 24 candidates approved to run in the election, the four former Prime Ministers captured the lion's share of the vote, with Cellou Dalein Diallo winning 43,69% of the vote, followed by Alpha Condé with 18,25%. Consequently Diallo and Condé will compete in the upcoming run-off election.

Numerous delays

Since the first round of the Presidential election, which was largely deemed free, fair and transparent by international observers, there have been numerous delays to the run-off originally scheduled for September 19, then October 10, and finally October 24.

The delays can be attributed to a number of factors. Initially, the September 19 vote was called off for technical reasons as voter identification cards had not yet arrived from South Africa and custom-made ballot envelopes were still in the process of being ordered. The date was, subsequently, rescheduled for October 10. This date was further delayed as, according to the Guinean Electoral Commission, it was no longer feasible, owing to a number of technical difficulties in meeting the proposed deadline.

Growing ethnic tension

Although there were 24 candidates who competed in the first round of the election, the two winners who will compete in the upcoming run-off represent the two biggest ethnic groups in the country. Diallo is Peul, the country's largest ethnic group that represents about 40% of the population. Condé is Malinke, the second-largest ethnic group.

Authorities have struggled to keep a lid on the flaring of ethnic tensions surrounding the elections, with clashes between Peul supporters of Diallo and Condé's Malinkes in street fights that left 54 injured, the week before the originally scheduled September 19 vote. These clashes raise the question of the possible threat of further ethnic violence pending the outcome of the election.

Support lines

Owing to the nature of run-off elections, minor candidates, who did not qualify to compete in the second round, have thrown their support behind one of the two competing candidates, which usually results in the formation of a coalition government.

The upcoming election sees at least 12 of the minor candidates, as well as the fourth-placed candidate, Lansana Kouyaté, supporting Condé. Diallo, however, has gained the support of Touré who came in third. From this evidence, the run-off is likely to be a tightly contested affair, however, Diallo is tipped to emerge victorious from the poll.

Challenges

Although Guinea can boast a successful July 27 election, the run-up to the run-off poll has been marred by rising ethnic tension and technical difficulties that have caused delays. Holding elections in the West African country remains a challenge, owing to its political culture, which is characterised by authoritarianism and conflict. Establishing a democratic precedent in the upcoming polls, therefore, remains one of the country's greatest immediate obstacles.

Rising ethnic tension remains a major concern for Guinea, as the emergence of two opponents of different ethnicities that have a history of conflict, has galvanised their supporters, resulting in sporadic flare-ups between the Peul and the Malinke. The worry is that the run-off is no longer an election in which people are voting for a political platform but, rather, they are voting in terms of ethnic allegiances. Being two of the biggest ethnic groupings in West Africa, it is feared that ethnic tension may spill over into the neighbouring Côte d'Ivoire and Sierra Leone.

The longer-term challenges facing the country include developing its mineral resources and decreasing poverty. However, to achieve these goals, a solid political platform needs to be created to provide political stability, which is the first step to attracting foreign investment. Much of this success will depend on the success and outcome of the upcoming run-off poll.

Main sources

Afrol News. Condé favourite to win Guinea election. (June 10, 2010).
Global Security. Guinea Conflict. (June 14, 2010).
UN News. Guinea: Country's transitional authorities assure UN that June vote will be held on schedule. (June 10, 2010).
African Elections Database. Elections in Guinea. (June 9, 2010).
US Department of State. Background Note: Guinea. (June 9, 2010).
IFES. Election Guide: Guinea. (June 10, 2010).
Times Live. Delayed Guinea election set for 24 October. (October 6, 2010).